International capital flows play a crucial role in the process of globalization,presenting both opportunities and challenges to the financial stability of emerging economies.This article sorts out the positive effects...International capital flows play a crucial role in the process of globalization,presenting both opportunities and challenges to the financial stability of emerging economies.This article sorts out the positive effects and potential risks of international capital flows on the financial stability of emerging economies.By combining case studies in recent years,it analyzes the complex relationship between cross-border capital flows and financial stability,and proposes policy paths for emerging economies to cope with the shock of capital flows,providing references for enhancing financial resilience and achieving sustainable development.展开更多
This study evaluates whether exchange traded funds(ETFs)threaten financial market stability by testing two hypotheses relating the growing importance of ETFs to increased market volatility and rising equity valuations...This study evaluates whether exchange traded funds(ETFs)threaten financial market stability by testing two hypotheses relating the growing importance of ETFs to increased market volatility and rising equity valuations.We estimate quantile cointegration models using Standard&Poor's 500 Index(S&P 500)and Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility Index(VIX)data for 1994-2020.We found that an increase in ETFs is positively and significantly related to the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 for quantile values above the median.By contrast,ETFs have only a negative and significant effect on the VIX for quantiles around the median.Ultimately,two novel results were obtained.First,the distortion in the value of the S&P 500 relative to its fundamentals is driven by investor flow into ETFs during a bull market.Second,the impact of equity ETFs on the VIX is only affected when fundamental factors are in play,decreasing it.Therefore,ETFs contribute to forming equity bubbles and support valuation market dynamics.Both regulators and policymakers should consider these conclusions.展开更多
This study explores the complex relationships involving ecological footprints,energy use,carbon emissions,governance efficiency,economic prosperity,and financial stability in South Asian nations spanning the period fr...This study explores the complex relationships involving ecological footprints,energy use,carbon emissions,governance efficiency,economic prosperity,and financial stability in South Asian nations spanning the period from 2000 to 2022.Employing various methodologies such as cross-sectional dependence tests,co-integration analysis,and first-and second-generation unit-root tests,we use a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model,feasible generalized least squares,and Panel Corrected Standard Errors to ensure the robustness of our findings.We find noteworthy positive correlations between several variables,including heightened ecological consciousness,effective governance structures,increased GDP per capita,and amplified CO_(2) emissions.These relationships suggest potential pathways to strengthen the financial stability of the entire region;they also highlight the latent potential of embracing ecologically sustainable practices to fortify economic resilience.Our results also underscore the pivotal role of appropriate governance structures and higher income levels in bolstering financial stability in South Asian countries.Interestingly,we also find negative coefficients associated with the use of renewable energy,suggesting that escalating the adoption of renewable energy could create financial instability.This finding stresses the importance of diversification in energy strategies,cautioning policymakers to carefully consider the financial ramifications of potentially costly imports of renewable energy sources while seeking to reduce carbon emissions,emphasizing the need to strike a balance between ambitious sustainability goals and the pursuit of sustained economic robustness in the region.In considering the implications of these findings,it is crucial to consider each country’s broader socioeconomic context.Our results offer valuable insights for policymakers in developing renewable energy strategies.展开更多
The study aims to explore the impact of governance and macroeconomic conditions on financial stability in developed and emerging countries.The study sample comprised 122 countries from 2013 to 2020,and a comprehensive...The study aims to explore the impact of governance and macroeconomic conditions on financial stability in developed and emerging countries.The study sample comprised 122 countries from 2013 to 2020,and a comprehensive set of variables was used to construct the financial stability index(FSI).The results of the two-step system GMM analysis,robust with D–K regression,indicate that interest rate,GDP growth,voice and accountability,political stability and absence of violence/terrorism,government effectiveness,regulatory quality,and control of corruption have a positive and statistically significant impact on financial stability.However,inflation,money supply,and the rule of law have adverse and insignificant effects on financial stability.Notably,the findings vary between developed and emerging countries due to differences in governance and macroeconomic conditions and their role in financial stability.The study concludes that regulatory governance and macroeconomic conditions are crucial for financial stability.These outcomes are significant for central banks,academia,and policymakers,as they emphasize the need for stable financial systems and sustainable,balanced growth through governance and macroeconomic conditions.展开更多
The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial delev...The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial deleveraging via an overly high upsurge in banks＇ risk premiums vis-a-vis the dynamics of fundamentals underlying loan repayment capability. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the banking sector＇s internal mechanisms that might bring about a negative spiral of credit risk by building a model for the interaction between the increase of the risk premium and that of net interest income and provisioning rate. Statistical results confirm that a higher risk premium is one of the major determinants of credit default in Romania and its excessive widening could affect financial stability in Romania.展开更多
The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial...The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial stability, explores how credit risk affecting the stability of financial system. Research found that the rating risk of credit risk transfer can cause default contagion in the financial markets.展开更多
With the continuous growth of China's economy,financial opening to the outside world has become one of the important means to promote economic development.However,with the continuous acceleration of capital flow,t...With the continuous growth of China's economy,financial opening to the outside world has become one of the important means to promote economic development.However,with the continuous acceleration of capital flow,the problem of balance in and out is becoming increasingly prominent.Taking China's financial opening to the outside world as the research object,this paper discusses how China strategically achieves the balance of entry and exit in the field of financial opening to the outside world,and the impact of this balance.Through the quantitative analysis of China's financial opening to the outside world and foreign capital flows,it is found that China needs to strengthen the management of capital items and optimize the structure of capital flows in the process of financial opening to the outside world,to achieve the balance of financial flows in and out.As for the impact of the balance of access and access,the analysis of the impact mechanism shows that the financial opening and access and balance can improve the stability of the financial market,provide sufficient liquidity for the healthy development of the financial market,and alleviate financial risks.Such a strategy is of great practical significance for promoting the sustained and healthy development of China's economy.Therefore,based on the actual situation of China,this paper puts forward some relevant strategy suggestions to guide the practical operation of China's financial opening up.展开更多
I. IntroductionAs Douglas North once said, "Institutions are the rules of the game in a society. The beginning of wisdom is to understand how the game is played." In the same way, it is vital to understand t...I. IntroductionAs Douglas North once said, "Institutions are the rules of the game in a society. The beginning of wisdom is to understand how the game is played." In the same way, it is vital to understand the international experience and rules of a financial system when a country tries to advance financial reform. International experience shows that the development展开更多
Finance has consistently played a pivotal role in the Chinese modernization and has become an indispensable core competitiveness for China’s economic development.It has played a significant role in promoting economic...Finance has consistently played a pivotal role in the Chinese modernization and has become an indispensable core competitiveness for China’s economic development.It has played a significant role in promoting economic growth,stabilizing employment markets,and facilitating economic transformation.As the economy progresses,advancing financial system reform to adapt to and promote high-quality financial development has become imperative and urgent.Deepening financial system reform is not only a requirement for synchronizing financial development with Chinese modernization but also a key measure to overcome institutional and systemic barriers constraining high-quality financial development.In the context of Chinese modernization,the priorities for deepening financial system reform include upholding the centralized and unified leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC),improving the modern central banking system,establishing an efficient financial regulatory framework,developing the“Five Key Financial Areas”(i.e.,sci-tech finance,green finance,inclusive finance,pension finance,and digital finance),harmonizing the investment and financing functions of capital markets,and advancing high-standard financial opening up.Through continuously deepening financial system reform,high-quality financial development can be elevated to a new level,thereby providing robust financial guarantee and abundant momentum for building a highstandard socialist market economy and serving Chinese modernization.展开更多
The development of financial technology has made financial sub-markets increasingly interconnected,and this interdependence magnifies the instability of financial markets and the possibility of risk.The literature doc...The development of financial technology has made financial sub-markets increasingly interconnected,and this interdependence magnifies the instability of financial markets and the possibility of risk.The literature documents the relation of financial sub-markets from time domain,but empirical evidence that effectively identify the patterns of co-movement of multiple financial sub-markets from frequency domain is lacking.This study assesses the dynamic relationship among interest rates,stock prices and exchange rates in China from January 2006 to December 2021 using the Wavelet model.Furthermore,we introduce the TVP-VAR-SV model to study whether the dynamic relationship has changed structurally under the impact of COVID-19.We find the following:1) with the deepening of the financial market and the improvement of the informatization level,the frequency of risk transmission among financial sub-markets decreases,and the linkage relationship changes from frequent linkage in the medium term to relatively stable linkage relationship in the long term;2) the relationship between the three variables in short-term fluctuations is more complex,while the relationship between financial variables in long-term fluctuations is more stable;3) after the outbreak of COVID-19,the positive impact of interest rates and stock prices has brought about a larger range of changes in exchange rate volatility,with a longer impact period and a stronger linkage.展开更多
The main aim of this paper is to compare the stability, in terms of systemic risk, of conventional and Islamic banking systems. To this aim, we propose correlation network models for stock market returns based on grap...The main aim of this paper is to compare the stability, in terms of systemic risk, of conventional and Islamic banking systems. To this aim, we propose correlation network models for stock market returns based on graphical Gaussian distributions, which allows us to capture the contagion effects that move along countries. We also consider Bayesian graphical models, to account for model uncertainty in the measurement of financial systems interconnectedness. Our proposed model is applied to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region banking sector, characterized by the presence of both conventional and Islamic banks, for the period from 2007 to the beginning of 2014. Our empirical findings show that there are differences in the systemic risk and stability of the two banking systems during crisis times. In addition, the differences are subject to country specific effects that are amplified during crisis period.展开更多
According to the consensus view, central banks reached a high level of independence by the end of last century. This paper argues that as a result short-term political considerations applied during the appointment pro...According to the consensus view, central banks reached a high level of independence by the end of last century. This paper argues that as a result short-term political considerations applied during the appointment process of central bank decision-makers, their actual independence was at a lower level already that time. The global f＇mancial crisis created new tasks for central banks and forced a review of the meaning of independence. The paper argues that central banks should be responsible for safeguarding fmancial stability and their macro-prudential activity can only be executed in cooperation with governments. However, interest rate policy decisions must remain free of political influence. The novelty of this paper lies in showing the conflictual relationship of the various roles of central banks. The paper concludes that the duality of independence and cooperation represents a major uncertainty in the operation of central banks. As a result of the greater degree of politicisation of the activities of central banks, their de facto independence in interest rate policy making may further shrink in the future. The paper also shows that India represents a unique case of central bank independence. In most countries, de jure independence is higher than de facto. India is one of the very rare countries where the reverse is the case.展开更多
Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms fr...Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020,we find that a national industrial policy lowers stock price crash risk. We find that the effect of an industrial policy on lowering stock price crash risk is more pronounced in regions with low levels of regional marketization and if firms have high external uncertainty, low total asset turnover, greater earnings management and receive small increments of long-term loans and fewer government subsidies, suggesting that industrial policies lower stock price crash risk by improving firm fundamentals and reducing external uncertainty,agency costs and information asymmetry.展开更多
Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION.Bank resolution has consistently been a central focus in the evolution of China's financial legal system,influencing both legislative efforts and the implementation of regulations.The Financial Sta...Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION.Bank resolution has consistently been a central focus in the evolution of China's financial legal system,influencing both legislative efforts and the implementation of regulations.The Financial Stability Law(FSL),currently under deliberation in China,is fundamentally designed for the prevention and resolution of financial risks.展开更多
The real estate cycle and financial stability are closely correlated. In light of global real estate bubbles, China ＂s real estate cycle has attracted wide attention since 1998. The present paper analyzes three drivi...The real estate cycle and financial stability are closely correlated. In light of global real estate bubbles, China ＂s real estate cycle has attracted wide attention since 1998. The present paper analyzes three driving factors in the context of the current real estate cycle; namely, economic growth, maeroeconomie environment and institutional establishment. Supported by econometric analysis using quarterly data from 1992-2004, the present paper indicates that real estate will develop steadily and that housing priees will consistently rise in the relative long run. Based on quantitative analysis, it is concluded that the implications of the current real estate cyele for finaneial stability include risks of real estate credit exposure, government guarantees and maturity mismatch. Some eorresponding poliey implications are discussed, such as advancing banking reform, encouraging the rational behavior of local governments and strengthening the regulation of foreign eapital flows in and out of China＇s real estate industry.展开更多
Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China＇s nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China ＂s financial stability. China ＂s rising corporate debt i...Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China＇s nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China ＂s financial stability. China ＂s rising corporate debt is mainly attributable to three factors： worsening capital efficiency, worsening corporate profitability and high funding costs. Based on a dynamic recursive model developed in the paper, we simulate the trajectories of China＇s corporate debt-to- GDP ratio, and find that if China fails to reverse the current trends in capital efficiency, corporate profitability and financing costs, China ＂s nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise without converging to a limit. Against most economists ＇ intuition, given the current trends of changes in parameters, higher economic growth will not help China to escape the corporate debt trap. On the contrary, it will make China ＂s corporate debt problem even worse. To avert a corporate debt crisis, China needs to speed up the structural reform and change the growth paradigm so as to enhance capital efficiency and firms＇ profitability, while reducing firms ＇financing costs.展开更多
The continuing emergence of sudden financial crises and the bankruptcy of Big banks audited by the‘Big Four’auditors confirms that the external audit quality(EAQ)always remains insufficient compared to the desired q...The continuing emergence of sudden financial crises and the bankruptcy of Big banks audited by the‘Big Four’auditors confirms that the external audit quality(EAQ)always remains insufficient compared to the desired quality.The quality weakness is due either to the bad audit company choice,although their sizes,or to the disrespect of the good audit rules.Because there is a lack of comparative studies in the framework of conventional and Islamic banks,this paper aims to compare the impact of EAQ on the financial performance(FP)of 180 conventional banks and 180 Islamic banks.FP and EAQ variables are collected from 56 countries over the period(2010-2020).To overcome the mystery of the best EAQ selection based on its impact on FP,this paper relied on the GLS estimator.Consequently,this paper concluded that the EAQ affected the conventional banks’FP,but it improved that of Islamic banks with a moderate impact.展开更多
文摘International capital flows play a crucial role in the process of globalization,presenting both opportunities and challenges to the financial stability of emerging economies.This article sorts out the positive effects and potential risks of international capital flows on the financial stability of emerging economies.By combining case studies in recent years,it analyzes the complex relationship between cross-border capital flows and financial stability,and proposes policy paths for emerging economies to cope with the shock of capital flows,providing references for enhancing financial resilience and achieving sustainable development.
基金supported by the MCIN/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033[PID2020-113338RB-I00]the Departamento de Ciencia,Universidad y Sociedad del Conocimiento del Gobierno de Aragón[S42_23R:CREVALOR].
文摘This study evaluates whether exchange traded funds(ETFs)threaten financial market stability by testing two hypotheses relating the growing importance of ETFs to increased market volatility and rising equity valuations.We estimate quantile cointegration models using Standard&Poor's 500 Index(S&P 500)and Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility Index(VIX)data for 1994-2020.We found that an increase in ETFs is positively and significantly related to the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 for quantile values above the median.By contrast,ETFs have only a negative and significant effect on the VIX for quantiles around the median.Ultimately,two novel results were obtained.First,the distortion in the value of the S&P 500 relative to its fundamentals is driven by investor flow into ETFs during a bull market.Second,the impact of equity ETFs on the VIX is only affected when fundamental factors are in play,decreasing it.Therefore,ETFs contribute to forming equity bubbles and support valuation market dynamics.Both regulators and policymakers should consider these conclusions.
基金supported by the grant from National Social Science Fund of China(23BJY085).
文摘This study explores the complex relationships involving ecological footprints,energy use,carbon emissions,governance efficiency,economic prosperity,and financial stability in South Asian nations spanning the period from 2000 to 2022.Employing various methodologies such as cross-sectional dependence tests,co-integration analysis,and first-and second-generation unit-root tests,we use a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model,feasible generalized least squares,and Panel Corrected Standard Errors to ensure the robustness of our findings.We find noteworthy positive correlations between several variables,including heightened ecological consciousness,effective governance structures,increased GDP per capita,and amplified CO_(2) emissions.These relationships suggest potential pathways to strengthen the financial stability of the entire region;they also highlight the latent potential of embracing ecologically sustainable practices to fortify economic resilience.Our results also underscore the pivotal role of appropriate governance structures and higher income levels in bolstering financial stability in South Asian countries.Interestingly,we also find negative coefficients associated with the use of renewable energy,suggesting that escalating the adoption of renewable energy could create financial instability.This finding stresses the importance of diversification in energy strategies,cautioning policymakers to carefully consider the financial ramifications of potentially costly imports of renewable energy sources while seeking to reduce carbon emissions,emphasizing the need to strike a balance between ambitious sustainability goals and the pursuit of sustained economic robustness in the region.In considering the implications of these findings,it is crucial to consider each country’s broader socioeconomic context.Our results offer valuable insights for policymakers in developing renewable energy strategies.
文摘The study aims to explore the impact of governance and macroeconomic conditions on financial stability in developed and emerging countries.The study sample comprised 122 countries from 2013 to 2020,and a comprehensive set of variables was used to construct the financial stability index(FSI).The results of the two-step system GMM analysis,robust with D–K regression,indicate that interest rate,GDP growth,voice and accountability,political stability and absence of violence/terrorism,government effectiveness,regulatory quality,and control of corruption have a positive and statistically significant impact on financial stability.However,inflation,money supply,and the rule of law have adverse and insignificant effects on financial stability.Notably,the findings vary between developed and emerging countries due to differences in governance and macroeconomic conditions and their role in financial stability.The study concludes that regulatory governance and macroeconomic conditions are crucial for financial stability.These outcomes are significant for central banks,academia,and policymakers,as they emphasize the need for stable financial systems and sustainable,balanced growth through governance and macroeconomic conditions.
文摘The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial deleveraging via an overly high upsurge in banks＇ risk premiums vis-a-vis the dynamics of fundamentals underlying loan repayment capability. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the banking sector＇s internal mechanisms that might bring about a negative spiral of credit risk by building a model for the interaction between the increase of the risk premium and that of net interest income and provisioning rate. Statistical results confirm that a higher risk premium is one of the major determinants of credit default in Romania and its excessive widening could affect financial stability in Romania.
文摘The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial stability, explores how credit risk affecting the stability of financial system. Research found that the rating risk of credit risk transfer can cause default contagion in the financial markets.
文摘With the continuous growth of China's economy,financial opening to the outside world has become one of the important means to promote economic development.However,with the continuous acceleration of capital flow,the problem of balance in and out is becoming increasingly prominent.Taking China's financial opening to the outside world as the research object,this paper discusses how China strategically achieves the balance of entry and exit in the field of financial opening to the outside world,and the impact of this balance.Through the quantitative analysis of China's financial opening to the outside world and foreign capital flows,it is found that China needs to strengthen the management of capital items and optimize the structure of capital flows in the process of financial opening to the outside world,to achieve the balance of financial flows in and out.As for the impact of the balance of access and access,the analysis of the impact mechanism shows that the financial opening and access and balance can improve the stability of the financial market,provide sufficient liquidity for the healthy development of the financial market,and alleviate financial risks.Such a strategy is of great practical significance for promoting the sustained and healthy development of China's economy.Therefore,based on the actual situation of China,this paper puts forward some relevant strategy suggestions to guide the practical operation of China's financial opening up.
文摘I. IntroductionAs Douglas North once said, "Institutions are the rules of the game in a society. The beginning of wisdom is to understand how the game is played." In the same way, it is vital to understand the international experience and rules of a financial system when a country tries to advance financial reform. International experience shows that the development
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’Peak-Strategy Priority Discipline“Finance and Development”(No.DF2023YS28)the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’Innovation Program“Research on High-Quality Development of Digital Finance”(No.2024JRS01).
文摘Finance has consistently played a pivotal role in the Chinese modernization and has become an indispensable core competitiveness for China’s economic development.It has played a significant role in promoting economic growth,stabilizing employment markets,and facilitating economic transformation.As the economy progresses,advancing financial system reform to adapt to and promote high-quality financial development has become imperative and urgent.Deepening financial system reform is not only a requirement for synchronizing financial development with Chinese modernization but also a key measure to overcome institutional and systemic barriers constraining high-quality financial development.In the context of Chinese modernization,the priorities for deepening financial system reform include upholding the centralized and unified leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC),improving the modern central banking system,establishing an efficient financial regulatory framework,developing the“Five Key Financial Areas”(i.e.,sci-tech finance,green finance,inclusive finance,pension finance,and digital finance),harmonizing the investment and financing functions of capital markets,and advancing high-standard financial opening up.Through continuously deepening financial system reform,high-quality financial development can be elevated to a new level,thereby providing robust financial guarantee and abundant momentum for building a highstandard socialist market economy and serving Chinese modernization.
基金funded by the National Social Science Fund of China,“Research on the Risk Generation, Measurement and Prevention Mechanisms under the Financial Market Opening Environment”(No. 18BJY232)。
文摘The development of financial technology has made financial sub-markets increasingly interconnected,and this interdependence magnifies the instability of financial markets and the possibility of risk.The literature documents the relation of financial sub-markets from time domain,but empirical evidence that effectively identify the patterns of co-movement of multiple financial sub-markets from frequency domain is lacking.This study assesses the dynamic relationship among interest rates,stock prices and exchange rates in China from January 2006 to December 2021 using the Wavelet model.Furthermore,we introduce the TVP-VAR-SV model to study whether the dynamic relationship has changed structurally under the impact of COVID-19.We find the following:1) with the deepening of the financial market and the improvement of the informatization level,the frequency of risk transmission among financial sub-markets decreases,and the linkage relationship changes from frequent linkage in the medium term to relatively stable linkage relationship in the long term;2) the relationship between the three variables in short-term fluctuations is more complex,while the relationship between financial variables in long-term fluctuations is more stable;3) after the outbreak of COVID-19,the positive impact of interest rates and stock prices has brought about a larger range of changes in exchange rate volatility,with a longer impact period and a stronger linkage.
文摘The main aim of this paper is to compare the stability, in terms of systemic risk, of conventional and Islamic banking systems. To this aim, we propose correlation network models for stock market returns based on graphical Gaussian distributions, which allows us to capture the contagion effects that move along countries. We also consider Bayesian graphical models, to account for model uncertainty in the measurement of financial systems interconnectedness. Our proposed model is applied to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region banking sector, characterized by the presence of both conventional and Islamic banks, for the period from 2007 to the beginning of 2014. Our empirical findings show that there are differences in the systemic risk and stability of the two banking systems during crisis times. In addition, the differences are subject to country specific effects that are amplified during crisis period.
文摘According to the consensus view, central banks reached a high level of independence by the end of last century. This paper argues that as a result short-term political considerations applied during the appointment process of central bank decision-makers, their actual independence was at a lower level already that time. The global f＇mancial crisis created new tasks for central banks and forced a review of the meaning of independence. The paper argues that central banks should be responsible for safeguarding fmancial stability and their macro-prudential activity can only be executed in cooperation with governments. However, interest rate policy decisions must remain free of political influence. The novelty of this paper lies in showing the conflictual relationship of the various roles of central banks. The paper concludes that the duality of independence and cooperation represents a major uncertainty in the operation of central banks. As a result of the greater degree of politicisation of the activities of central banks, their de facto independence in interest rate policy making may further shrink in the future. The paper also shows that India represents a unique case of central bank independence. In most countries, de jure independence is higher than de facto. India is one of the very rare countries where the reverse is the case.
基金the financial support of the Key Construction Discipline Project of the Liaoning Provincial Social Science Planning Foundation(L21ZD040)
文摘Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020,we find that a national industrial policy lowers stock price crash risk. We find that the effect of an industrial policy on lowering stock price crash risk is more pronounced in regions with low levels of regional marketization and if firms have high external uncertainty, low total asset turnover, greater earnings management and receive small increments of long-term loans and fewer government subsidies, suggesting that industrial policies lower stock price crash risk by improving firm fundamentals and reducing external uncertainty,agency costs and information asymmetry.
基金funded by the 2024 Ministry-Level Research Project on the Construction of the Rule of Law and Legal Theory(Grant No.24SFB3029)the 2023 National Postdoctoral Talent Project(Grant No.GZC20231223).
文摘Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION.Bank resolution has consistently been a central focus in the evolution of China's financial legal system,influencing both legislative efforts and the implementation of regulations.The Financial Stability Law(FSL),currently under deliberation in China,is fundamentally designed for the prevention and resolution of financial risks.
文摘The real estate cycle and financial stability are closely correlated. In light of global real estate bubbles, China ＂s real estate cycle has attracted wide attention since 1998. The present paper analyzes three driving factors in the context of the current real estate cycle; namely, economic growth, maeroeconomie environment and institutional establishment. Supported by econometric analysis using quarterly data from 1992-2004, the present paper indicates that real estate will develop steadily and that housing priees will consistently rise in the relative long run. Based on quantitative analysis, it is concluded that the implications of the current real estate cyele for finaneial stability include risks of real estate credit exposure, government guarantees and maturity mismatch. Some eorresponding poliey implications are discussed, such as advancing banking reform, encouraging the rational behavior of local governments and strengthening the regulation of foreign eapital flows in and out of China＇s real estate industry.
文摘Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China＇s nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China ＂s financial stability. China ＂s rising corporate debt is mainly attributable to three factors： worsening capital efficiency, worsening corporate profitability and high funding costs. Based on a dynamic recursive model developed in the paper, we simulate the trajectories of China＇s corporate debt-to- GDP ratio, and find that if China fails to reverse the current trends in capital efficiency, corporate profitability and financing costs, China ＂s nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise without converging to a limit. Against most economists ＇ intuition, given the current trends of changes in parameters, higher economic growth will not help China to escape the corporate debt trap. On the contrary, it will make China ＂s corporate debt problem even worse. To avert a corporate debt crisis, China needs to speed up the structural reform and change the growth paradigm so as to enhance capital efficiency and firms＇ profitability, while reducing firms ＇financing costs.
文摘The continuing emergence of sudden financial crises and the bankruptcy of Big banks audited by the‘Big Four’auditors confirms that the external audit quality(EAQ)always remains insufficient compared to the desired quality.The quality weakness is due either to the bad audit company choice,although their sizes,or to the disrespect of the good audit rules.Because there is a lack of comparative studies in the framework of conventional and Islamic banks,this paper aims to compare the impact of EAQ on the financial performance(FP)of 180 conventional banks and 180 Islamic banks.FP and EAQ variables are collected from 56 countries over the period(2010-2020).To overcome the mystery of the best EAQ selection based on its impact on FP,this paper relied on the GLS estimator.Consequently,this paper concluded that the EAQ affected the conventional banks’FP,but it improved that of Islamic banks with a moderate impact.
