This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we l...This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we launched a comparative study on the Great Depression of the 1930s and today＇s international financial crisis. This paper is the main summary of the project we have accomplished together. This research draws on the historical event and data to analyze the true reasons behind these two global crises. It concludes that the endogenous conflicts of capitalism, with the inability to self-adjust have caused these crises to take place.展开更多
The main goal of this paper is to trace the long record of financial crises from the perspective of an emerging economy. Two questions are addressed. First, what explains the incidence and severity of financial crises...The main goal of this paper is to trace the long record of financial crises from the perspective of an emerging economy. Two questions are addressed. First, what explains the incidence and severity of financial crises in an emerging market economy？ And, second, what is the role of learning; how does the country learn from its past experience in financial crises to improve institutions and develop better techniques so as to successfully manage successive crisis events？ To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to provide a crisis event taxonomy looking at a systematic categorisation of the crises episodes that the country experienced over its 200-year life span, from its independence and the foundation of the Modem Greek state in 1829 to the recent 2008 crisis. To answer the above questions, I first present evidence on financial crises in Greece over a long time span of two centuries. Greece is chosen as our working template since it is a country with a rich history in financial crises. In particular, we try to identify different varieties of crises events, providing thus a crisis chronology. Moreover, we present some stylised facts on the incidence, the frequency and the severity of crises events. And second, we discuss the key determinants of the crises episodes, closely related to country specific factors, such as credit expansion, fiscal imbalances and the limited reserve coverage of the monetary base.展开更多
Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out ...Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out on daily data for the period from July 31,2000 to July 31,2014.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analyses,namely,the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model,exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(EGARCH)model,variance decomposition method,and impulse response function.Results:The results of the cointegration method indicate a significant long-run association between stock market and oil prices in the pre-crisis period.The EGARCH model shows that oil price returns have a significant effect on stock market returns in both sub-periods,while the result for the GARCH model is significant only in the postcrisis period.We find a significant effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in both sub-periods from the GARCH model.Furthermore,the EGARCH model shows an asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in the pre-crisis period.Variance decomposition shows that stock market variations are mostly explained by selfinnovation.Moreover,the impulse response function results show that oil price shocks affected the stock market adversely in the pre-crisis period but positively in the postcrisis period.Conclusions:This study suggests that economic policymakers and investors should consider the oil price as an important factor affecting stock market returns.展开更多
We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a n...We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a novel approach to measuring global market risk, and an alternative to the VIX. Using data of 20 major stock markets, including G10 economies, we find spikes in our EMR index during the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the novel coronavirus pandemic. The result shows that the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 induced crisis record the historic highest spikes in financial market risk, suggesting stronger evidence of contagion in both periods.展开更多
Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with tim...Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with time and global growth. I find that countries with large, open banking sectors and trade deficits tend to transmit growth more strongly than other countries. Transmission effects seem to have become stronger over time and are stronger in periods of slow economic growth.展开更多
China s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion.This paper argues,however,that even before the COVID-19 shock,a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and ...China s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion.This paper argues,however,that even before the COVID-19 shock,a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches,making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable.We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply-demand conditions in the fast-moving Chinese economy.The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies.We conclude that the real estate sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock,such as COVID-19 might pose.In our baseline calibration,using input-output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real estate related sectors,the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5-10 percent from the level of output over a period of years.展开更多
文摘This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we launched a comparative study on the Great Depression of the 1930s and today＇s international financial crisis. This paper is the main summary of the project we have accomplished together. This research draws on the historical event and data to analyze the true reasons behind these two global crises. It concludes that the endogenous conflicts of capitalism, with the inability to self-adjust have caused these crises to take place.
文摘The main goal of this paper is to trace the long record of financial crises from the perspective of an emerging economy. Two questions are addressed. First, what explains the incidence and severity of financial crises in an emerging market economy？ And, second, what is the role of learning; how does the country learn from its past experience in financial crises to improve institutions and develop better techniques so as to successfully manage successive crisis events？ To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to provide a crisis event taxonomy looking at a systematic categorisation of the crises episodes that the country experienced over its 200-year life span, from its independence and the foundation of the Modem Greek state in 1829 to the recent 2008 crisis. To answer the above questions, I first present evidence on financial crises in Greece over a long time span of two centuries. Greece is chosen as our working template since it is a country with a rich history in financial crises. In particular, we try to identify different varieties of crises events, providing thus a crisis chronology. Moreover, we present some stylised facts on the incidence, the frequency and the severity of crises events. And second, we discuss the key determinants of the crises episodes, closely related to country specific factors, such as credit expansion, fiscal imbalances and the limited reserve coverage of the monetary base.
基金This article was supported by Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China.(Project Number:71472030).
文摘Background:The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the oil price and its volatility on the stock market of Pakistan before and after the 2007 financial crisis period.Methods:The analyses are carried out on daily data for the period from July 31,2000 to July 31,2014.This study uses several econometric techniques for the analyses,namely,the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model,exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(EGARCH)model,variance decomposition method,and impulse response function.Results:The results of the cointegration method indicate a significant long-run association between stock market and oil prices in the pre-crisis period.The EGARCH model shows that oil price returns have a significant effect on stock market returns in both sub-periods,while the result for the GARCH model is significant only in the postcrisis period.We find a significant effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in both sub-periods from the GARCH model.Furthermore,the EGARCH model shows an asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on the stock market in the pre-crisis period.Variance decomposition shows that stock market variations are mostly explained by selfinnovation.Moreover,the impulse response function results show that oil price shocks affected the stock market adversely in the pre-crisis period but positively in the postcrisis period.Conclusions:This study suggests that economic policymakers and investors should consider the oil price as an important factor affecting stock market returns.
文摘We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a novel approach to measuring global market risk, and an alternative to the VIX. Using data of 20 major stock markets, including G10 economies, we find spikes in our EMR index during the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the novel coronavirus pandemic. The result shows that the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 induced crisis record the historic highest spikes in financial market risk, suggesting stronger evidence of contagion in both periods.
文摘Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with time and global growth. I find that countries with large, open banking sectors and trade deficits tend to transmit growth more strongly than other countries. Transmission effects seem to have become stronger over time and are stronger in periods of slow economic growth.
文摘China s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion.This paper argues,however,that even before the COVID-19 shock,a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches,making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable.We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply-demand conditions in the fast-moving Chinese economy.The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies.We conclude that the real estate sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock,such as COVID-19 might pose.In our baseline calibration,using input-output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real estate related sectors,the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5-10 percent from the level of output over a period of years.
