In this research paper,we propose a corpus for the task of detecting religious extremism in social networks and open sources and compare various machine learning algorithms for the binary classification problem using ...In this research paper,we propose a corpus for the task of detecting religious extremism in social networks and open sources and compare various machine learning algorithms for the binary classification problem using a previously created corpus,thereby checking whether it is possible to detect extremist messages in the Kazakh language.To do this,the authors trained models using six classic machine-learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machine,Decision Tree,Random Forest,K Nearest Neighbors,Naive Bayes,and Logistic Regression.To increase the accuracy of detecting extremist texts,we used various characteristics such as Statistical Features,TF-IDF,POS,LIWC,and applied oversampling and undersampling techniques to handle imbalanced data.As a result,we achieved 98%accuracy in detecting religious extremism in Kazakh texts for the collected dataset.Testing the developed machine learningmodels in various databases that are often found in everyday life“Jokes”,“News”,“Toxic content”,“Spam”,“Advertising”has also shown high rates of extremism detection.展开更多
Since the first years of independence,Uzbekistan began to develop and implement a policy of countering religious extremism and addressing the ideological basis of terrorism.Taking into consideration the complexity of ...Since the first years of independence,Uzbekistan began to develop and implement a policy of countering religious extremism and addressing the ideological basis of terrorism.Taking into consideration the complexity of this problem,Uzbekistan is comprehensively combating expressions of extremism and terrorism.展开更多
This paper illuminates some of the main effects that neoliberalism has on the psychological and socio-economic profile of Americans.It outlines the structural processes that produced the groundwork for today’s enormo...This paper illuminates some of the main effects that neoliberalism has on the psychological and socio-economic profile of Americans.It outlines the structural processes that produced the groundwork for today’s enormous popularity of right-wing extremism in the USA.America’s middle-class has turned right-wing extremist during the Trump years and this trend has continued to dominate American politics today.While populism mobilizes feelings of injustice and grievances,the source and commencement of these grievances is the centerpiece of this article.The paper does so by applying Rodrigo Nunes’(2020a)analysis of the effects of Bolsenarismo in Brazil to the American society.The paper differentiates between the effects of individualism,punitivism,and the valorization of order above the law and shows how these trends have influenced preponderant identity traits of Baby Boomers and Generation X.Secondly,the paper focuses on the concept of“negative solidarity”which is one direct consequence of the worldview produced by successful indoctrination of neoliberal values and goes hand in hand with the consequent pauperization of the American worker.The preponderance of negative solidarity remains a key handicap for a democratic future and for any social mobilization efforts within the USA.展开更多
March 2019 Contents Foreword I.Xinjiang Has Long Been an Inseparable Part of Chinese Territory II.The Origin of Terrorism and Extremism in Xinjiang III.Violent Terrorism and Religious Extremism Are Grave Abuses of Hum...March 2019 Contents Foreword I.Xinjiang Has Long Been an Inseparable Part of Chinese Territory II.The Origin of Terrorism and Extremism in Xinjiang III.Violent Terrorism and Religious Extremism Are Grave Abuses of Human Rights IV.Striking at Terrorism and Extremism in Accordance with the Law V.Giving Top Priority to a Preventive Counterterrorism Approach VI.Finding Experience for Counterterrorism and De-radicalization VII.展开更多
In the context of globalization, violent extremist forces pose a serious threat to the fundamental human rights of the people all over the world. Strengthening human rights protection requires reinforcing the momentum...In the context of globalization, violent extremist forces pose a serious threat to the fundamental human rights of the people all over the world. Strengthening human rights protection requires reinforcing the momentum to crack down and prevent the violent acts of extremist forces. As one of the countries that is the victim of violence by extremists, China has taken a series of measures to tackle the challenges of violent extremism. As President Xi Jinping has pointed out, 'the realization of the full enjoyment of human rights by human beings is the common goal of human society.' While establishing a community of common destiny for all mankind, the international community should take action to effectively address the root causes of violent extremism, maintain a peaceful and secure development environment, and defend the basic human rights and well-being of all peoples, so as to ensure a safe and brighter future for all.展开更多
For today＇s human rights protection, it is requisite to firmly oppose religious ex- tremism, no matter whether in China or worldwide. Religious extremism is a rather serious phenomenon in the political life of today...For today＇s human rights protection, it is requisite to firmly oppose religious ex- tremism, no matter whether in China or worldwide. Religious extremism is a rather serious phenomenon in the political life of today＇s world. In the form of religion （including banners, words, symbols and costumes, etc）, it agitates for the extreme claims and fanatical behavior of certain groups and damages social stability, so that it can serve its villainous purposes.展开更多
After the collapse of the Mubarak regime,the activities of Islamic extremism organisations in Egypt have been frequent,which brought great challenges to national security and social stability.After Sisi came into powe...After the collapse of the Mubarak regime,the activities of Islamic extremism organisations in Egypt have been frequent,which brought great challenges to national security and social stability.After Sisi came into power,the Egyptian government took various measures to actively promote the de-extremism work,however,the difficulties in the process of Egypt’s de-extremism cannot be ignored.Whether the transition of de-extremism from a movement to a institution can be realised will be the key to its longterm effect.展开更多
While the fall of Raqqa signalled the steady decline and“defeat”of the Islamic State(IS),it did not guarantee the end of its ideology of violent extremism.The possibility of the organisation reinventing itself in di...While the fall of Raqqa signalled the steady decline and“defeat”of the Islamic State(IS),it did not guarantee the end of its ideology of violent extremism.The possibility of the organisation reinventing itself in different and perhaps more lethal ways is very high.States,therefore,must adopt measures that are based on holistic,multi-stakeholder approaches rather than on military and securitised responses to counter and ultimately prevent the spread of violent extremist ideology.The countries of the Gulf have the advantage of a“youth bulge,”with almost half its population under the age of 30 years.This“youth bulge”is however a double-edged sword.This large pool of human capital could be a demographic dividend,if harnessed intelligently,while conversely it could prove to be a demographic disaster if timely and plausible solutions to the various issues faced are not provided.This paper will explore ways in which preventing and countering violent extremism(P/CVE)through education could be achieved by including a variety of stakeholders from faith based organisations,the corporate sector,media and academia in the formulation of appropriate educational responses which take into account issues like culture,identity and religiosity.These re-education programmes should form an integral part of P/CVE policies,thereby providing the much needed psycho-social angle to an otherwise hard security-driven discourse.It is against this rationale that this paper makes a case for P/CVE through education,encompassing the formal,informal and non-formal levels,as one of the possible means for promoting and fostering a peace process in the Gulf.展开更多
To meet the challenge of mismatches between power supply and demand,modern buildings must schedule flexible energy loads in order to improve the efficiency of power grids.Furthermore,it is essential to understand the ...To meet the challenge of mismatches between power supply and demand,modern buildings must schedule flexible energy loads in order to improve the efficiency of power grids.Furthermore,it is essential to understand the effectiveness of flexibility management strategies under different climate conditions and extreme weather events.Using both typical and extreme weather data from cities in five major climate zones of China,this study investigates the energy flexibility potential of an office building under three short-term HVAC management strategies in the context of different climates.The results show that the peak load flexibility and overall energy performance of the three short-term strategies were affected by the surrounding climate conditions.The peak load reduction rate of the pre-cooling and zone temperature reset strategies declined linearly as outdoor temperature increased.Under extreme climate conditions,the daily peak-load time was found to be over two hours earlier than under typical conditions,and the intensive solar radiation found in the extreme conditions can weaken the correlation between peak load reduction and outdoor temperature,risking the ability of a building’s HVAC system to maintain a comfortable indoor environment.展开更多
Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regime...Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.展开更多
In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ...This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.展开更多
Accurate seasonal precipitation forecasts,especially for extreme events,are crucial to preventing meteorological hazards and their potential impacts on national development,social activity,and security.However,the int...Accurate seasonal precipitation forecasts,especially for extreme events,are crucial to preventing meteorological hazards and their potential impacts on national development,social activity,and security.However,the intensity of summer precipitation is often largely underestimated in many current dynamic models.This study uses a deep learning method called Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks(CycleGAN)to improve the seasonal forecasts for June-JulyAugust precipitation in southeastern China by the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS 1.0).The results suggest that the CycleGAN-based model significantly improves the accuracy in predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of summer precipitation compared to the traditional quantile mapping(QM)method.Using the unpaired bias-correction model,we can also obtain advanced forecasts of the frequency,intensity,and duration of extreme precipitation events over the dynamic model predictions.This study expands the potential applications of deep learning models toward improving seasonal precipitation forecasts.展开更多
This study investigates extreme rainfall episodes along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in North China from 30 July to 1 August 2023.It focuses on two types of extreme hourly rainfall rates(HRRs),i.e.,t...This study investigates extreme rainfall episodes along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in North China from 30 July to 1 August 2023.It focuses on two types of extreme hourly rainfall rates(HRRs),i.e.,the maximum regionalaverage HRR and site-observed HRR,which exhibited sequential development over southern,middle,and northern key regions.These rainfall extremes occurred in an environment where a high-pressure barrier over North China prevented the intrusion of cold air masses from the north while a northward-moving typhoon remnant vortex and its associated low-level jet(LLJ)transported warm and moist airflow from the south.Two distinct echo evolution modes and convection initiation mechanisms are identified for the two types of extreme HRRs.The maximum regional-average HRR occurred when the LLJ arrived to the east of the key regions,while the maximum site-observed HRR occurred when the warmer vortex center influenced the regions.Taking the northern key region as a representation,at the time of the maximum regional-average HRR,slantwise ascent of the airflow along a warm-frontal-like boundary released energy related to symmetrical instability,resulting in stratiform rainfall with weak convective cores.The transport of locally initiated convection over the eastern plain region,where the atmospheric stratification was more potentially unstable,also significantly contributed.When the maximum site-observed HRR occurred,the terrain lifting of warm and moist southeast airflow led to intense convection over the mountain foothills.Overall,the passage of the warm-core typhoon remnant vortex and interaction with Taihang Mountains determined the timing and location of extreme HRRs across the key regions.展开更多
1 EXTREME DROUGHT AND HYDROGEODESY TECHNOLOGIES The World Meteorological Organization has officially declared 2023 as the hottest year on record,with the average global temperature surpassing pre-industrial(1850-1900)...1 EXTREME DROUGHT AND HYDROGEODESY TECHNOLOGIES The World Meteorological Organization has officially declared 2023 as the hottest year on record,with the average global temperature surpassing pre-industrial(1850-1900)average by 1.45℃.While temperature is not the only climate observable from the complex processes for the geneses of droughts,recent hottest years have witnessed numerous instances of extreme droughts.展开更多
Accurate crown control is paramount for ensuring the quality of hot-rolled strip products.Given the multitude of influencing parameters and the intricate coupling and genetic relationships among them,the conventional ...Accurate crown control is paramount for ensuring the quality of hot-rolled strip products.Given the multitude of influencing parameters and the intricate coupling and genetic relationships among them,the conventional crown control method is no longer sufficient to meet the precision requirements of schedule-free rolling.To address this limitation,an optimization framework for hot-rolled strip crown control was developed based on model-driven digital twin(MDDT).This framework enhances the strip crown control precision by facilitating collaborative operations among physical entities,virtual models,and functional application layers.In virtual modeling,a data-driven approach that integrates the extreme gradient boosting and the improved Harris hawk optimization algorithm was firstly proposed to fit the relationship between key process parameters and strip crown,and a global-local collaborative training strategy was proposed to enhance the model adaptability to diverse working conditions.Subsequently,the influence of crucial process factors on the virtual model was examined through model responses.Furthermore,a novel optimization mode for crown control based on MDDT was established by aligning and reconstructing both the physical and virtual models,thereby enhancing the crown control precision.Finally,data trials were conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.The results indicated that the proposed method exhibited satisfactory performance and could be effectively utilized to improve the crown control precision.展开更多
This paper presents a new type of triangular Sharp Eagle wave energy converter(WEC)platform.On the basis of the linear potential flow theory and the finite element analysis method,the hydrodynamic performance and stru...This paper presents a new type of triangular Sharp Eagle wave energy converter(WEC)platform.On the basis of the linear potential flow theory and the finite element analysis method,the hydrodynamic performance and structural response of the platform are studied,considering the actual platform motion and free surface rise under extreme sea states.First,the effects of the wave frequency and direction on the wave-induced loads and dynamic responses were examined.The motion at a wave direction angle of 0°is relatively low.On this basis,the angle constrained by the two sides of the Sharp Eagle floaters should be aligned with the main wave direction to avoid significant platform motion under extreme sea states.Additionally,the structural response of the platform,including the wave-absorbing floaters,is investigated.The results highlighted that the conditions or locations where yielding,buckling,and fatigue failures occur were different.In this context,the connection area of the Sharp Eagle floaters and platform is prone to yielding failure under oblique wave action,whereas the pontoon and side of the Sharp Eagle floaters are prone to buckling failure during significant vertical motion.Additionally,fatigue damage is most likely to occur at the connection between the middle column on both sides of the Sharp Eagle floaters and the pontoons.The findings of this paper revealed an intrinsic connection between wave-induced loads and the dynamic and structural responses of the platform,which provides a useful reference for the improved design of WECs.展开更多
BACKGROUND A case study of multiple distinct levels of skipped thoracolumbar spine infection was reported in which 13 successful vacuum sealing drainage(VSD)surgeries were treated.CASE SUMMARY The patient underwent a ...BACKGROUND A case study of multiple distinct levels of skipped thoracolumbar spine infection was reported in which 13 successful vacuum sealing drainage(VSD)surgeries were treated.CASE SUMMARY The patient underwent a total of 13 procedures within our medical facility,including five performed under local anesthesia and eight performed under general anesthesia.The source of the ailment was ultimately identified as Enterobacter cloacae.After the last procedure,the patient's symptoms were alleviated,and the recovery process was satisfactory.Three months post-operation,the Japanese Orthopaedic Association scores had improved to 100%.Imageological examination revealed a satisfactory position of internal fixation,and the abnormal signals in the vertebral body and intervertebral space had been eliminated when compared to the pre-operative results.CONCLUSION The study demonstrates that the extreme lateral approach debridement combined with multiple VSD operations is a secure and successful method of treatment for recurrent spinal infection,providing an alternative to traditional surgery.展开更多
This study investigates trends in extreme precipitation events(EPEs)across Antarctica from 1979 to 2023,analyzing changes in EPE frequency,intensity,and the proportion of extreme to total precipitation.Using Self-Orga...This study investigates trends in extreme precipitation events(EPEs)across Antarctica from 1979 to 2023,analyzing changes in EPE frequency,intensity,and the proportion of extreme to total precipitation.Using Self-Organizing Map(SOM)techniques,the study distinguishes the contributions from thermodynamic,dynamic,and interaction components in explaining these trends.Positive EPE occurrence trends are observed across the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas,Dronning Maud Land,and parts of the Southern Ocean,with declines limited to Queen Mary Land.Thermodynamic factors,responsible for 96.0%of the overall trend,are driven by increased water vapor content in polar air masses.Dynamic contributions,representing 10.8%,are linked to a strengthened Amundsen Sea Low(ASL)associated with the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)and Pacific South American(PSA)trends.Interaction effects make a slightly negative contribution(-6.8%)to the overall trend.Variations in water vapor transport and vertical velocity tied to annual 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies further explain EPE trends.These findings provide insight into the atmospheric processes that influence Antarctic EPEs,with implications for understanding the climatic impact on the polar environment.展开更多
A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and...A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and development of the NMI model and then emphasize that the NMI model represents a new tool for identifying the basic physics of how climate change influences mid-to-high latitude weather extremes.The building of the NMI model took place over three main periods.In the 1990s,a nonlinear Schr?dinger(NLS)equation model was presented to describe atmospheric blocking as a wave packet;however,it could not depict the lifetime(10-20 days)of atmospheric blocking.In the 2000s,we proposed an NMI model of atmospheric blocking in a uniform basic flow by making a scale-separation assumption and deriving an eddyforced NLS equation.This model succeeded in describing the life cycle of atmospheric blocking.In the 2020s,the NMI model was extended to include the impact of a changing climate mainly by altering the basic zonal winds and the magnitude of the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy).Model results show that when PVy is smaller,blocking has a weaker dispersion and a stronger nonlinearity,so blocking can be more persistent and have a larger zonal scale and weaker eastward movement,thus favoring stronger weather extremes.However,when PVy is much smaller and below a critical threshold under much stronger winter Arctic warming of global warming,atmospheric blocking becomes locally less persistent and shows a much stronger westward movement,which acts to inhibit local cold extremes.Such a case does not happen in summer under global warming because PVy fails to fall below the critical threshold.Thus,our theory indicates that global warming can render summer-blocking anticyclones and mid-to-high latitude heatwaves more persistent,intense,and widespread.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the grant“Development of models,algorithms for semantic analysis to identify extremist content in web resources and creation the tool for cyber forensics”funded by the Ministry of Digital Development,Innovations and Aerospace industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan.Grant No.IRN AP06851248.Supervisor of the project is Shynar Mussiraliyeva,email:mussiraliyevash@gmail.com.
文摘In this research paper,we propose a corpus for the task of detecting religious extremism in social networks and open sources and compare various machine learning algorithms for the binary classification problem using a previously created corpus,thereby checking whether it is possible to detect extremist messages in the Kazakh language.To do this,the authors trained models using six classic machine-learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machine,Decision Tree,Random Forest,K Nearest Neighbors,Naive Bayes,and Logistic Regression.To increase the accuracy of detecting extremist texts,we used various characteristics such as Statistical Features,TF-IDF,POS,LIWC,and applied oversampling and undersampling techniques to handle imbalanced data.As a result,we achieved 98%accuracy in detecting religious extremism in Kazakh texts for the collected dataset.Testing the developed machine learningmodels in various databases that are often found in everyday life“Jokes”,“News”,“Toxic content”,“Spam”,“Advertising”has also shown high rates of extremism detection.
文摘Since the first years of independence,Uzbekistan began to develop and implement a policy of countering religious extremism and addressing the ideological basis of terrorism.Taking into consideration the complexity of this problem,Uzbekistan is comprehensively combating expressions of extremism and terrorism.
文摘This paper illuminates some of the main effects that neoliberalism has on the psychological and socio-economic profile of Americans.It outlines the structural processes that produced the groundwork for today’s enormous popularity of right-wing extremism in the USA.America’s middle-class has turned right-wing extremist during the Trump years and this trend has continued to dominate American politics today.While populism mobilizes feelings of injustice and grievances,the source and commencement of these grievances is the centerpiece of this article.The paper does so by applying Rodrigo Nunes’(2020a)analysis of the effects of Bolsenarismo in Brazil to the American society.The paper differentiates between the effects of individualism,punitivism,and the valorization of order above the law and shows how these trends have influenced preponderant identity traits of Baby Boomers and Generation X.Secondly,the paper focuses on the concept of“negative solidarity”which is one direct consequence of the worldview produced by successful indoctrination of neoliberal values and goes hand in hand with the consequent pauperization of the American worker.The preponderance of negative solidarity remains a key handicap for a democratic future and for any social mobilization efforts within the USA.
文摘March 2019 Contents Foreword I.Xinjiang Has Long Been an Inseparable Part of Chinese Territory II.The Origin of Terrorism and Extremism in Xinjiang III.Violent Terrorism and Religious Extremism Are Grave Abuses of Human Rights IV.Striking at Terrorism and Extremism in Accordance with the Law V.Giving Top Priority to a Preventive Counterterrorism Approach VI.Finding Experience for Counterterrorism and De-radicalization VII.
文摘In the context of globalization, violent extremist forces pose a serious threat to the fundamental human rights of the people all over the world. Strengthening human rights protection requires reinforcing the momentum to crack down and prevent the violent acts of extremist forces. As one of the countries that is the victim of violence by extremists, China has taken a series of measures to tackle the challenges of violent extremism. As President Xi Jinping has pointed out, 'the realization of the full enjoyment of human rights by human beings is the common goal of human society.' While establishing a community of common destiny for all mankind, the international community should take action to effectively address the root causes of violent extremism, maintain a peaceful and secure development environment, and defend the basic human rights and well-being of all peoples, so as to ensure a safe and brighter future for all.
文摘For today＇s human rights protection, it is requisite to firmly oppose religious ex- tremism, no matter whether in China or worldwide. Religious extremism is a rather serious phenomenon in the political life of today＇s world. In the form of religion （including banners, words, symbols and costumes, etc）, it agitates for the extreme claims and fanatical behavior of certain groups and damages social stability, so that it can serve its villainous purposes.
文摘After the collapse of the Mubarak regime,the activities of Islamic extremism organisations in Egypt have been frequent,which brought great challenges to national security and social stability.After Sisi came into power,the Egyptian government took various measures to actively promote the de-extremism work,however,the difficulties in the process of Egypt’s de-extremism cannot be ignored.Whether the transition of de-extremism from a movement to a institution can be realised will be the key to its longterm effect.
文摘While the fall of Raqqa signalled the steady decline and“defeat”of the Islamic State(IS),it did not guarantee the end of its ideology of violent extremism.The possibility of the organisation reinventing itself in different and perhaps more lethal ways is very high.States,therefore,must adopt measures that are based on holistic,multi-stakeholder approaches rather than on military and securitised responses to counter and ultimately prevent the spread of violent extremist ideology.The countries of the Gulf have the advantage of a“youth bulge,”with almost half its population under the age of 30 years.This“youth bulge”is however a double-edged sword.This large pool of human capital could be a demographic dividend,if harnessed intelligently,while conversely it could prove to be a demographic disaster if timely and plausible solutions to the various issues faced are not provided.This paper will explore ways in which preventing and countering violent extremism(P/CVE)through education could be achieved by including a variety of stakeholders from faith based organisations,the corporate sector,media and academia in the formulation of appropriate educational responses which take into account issues like culture,identity and religiosity.These re-education programmes should form an integral part of P/CVE policies,thereby providing the much needed psycho-social angle to an otherwise hard security-driven discourse.It is against this rationale that this paper makes a case for P/CVE through education,encompassing the formal,informal and non-formal levels,as one of the possible means for promoting and fostering a peace process in the Gulf.
基金National Key R&D Program of China of the 13th Five-Year Plan(No.2018YFD1100704)。
文摘To meet the challenge of mismatches between power supply and demand,modern buildings must schedule flexible energy loads in order to improve the efficiency of power grids.Furthermore,it is essential to understand the effectiveness of flexibility management strategies under different climate conditions and extreme weather events.Using both typical and extreme weather data from cities in five major climate zones of China,this study investigates the energy flexibility potential of an office building under three short-term HVAC management strategies in the context of different climates.The results show that the peak load flexibility and overall energy performance of the three short-term strategies were affected by the surrounding climate conditions.The peak load reduction rate of the pre-cooling and zone temperature reset strategies declined linearly as outdoor temperature increased.Under extreme climate conditions,the daily peak-load time was found to be over two hours earlier than under typical conditions,and the intensive solar radiation found in the extreme conditions can weaken the correlation between peak load reduction and outdoor temperature,risking the ability of a building’s HVAC system to maintain a comfortable indoor environment.
基金supported by the funding Riset Unggulan Daerah 2022 of the Bureau of Development Planning and Research in Central Java Province(BAPPEDA Provinsi Jawa Tengah).
文摘Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42422502 and 42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No.QBZ202306)funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China project under the International Science Partnerships Fund (ISPF)。
文摘This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030605)+1 种基金CAAI-MindSpore Academic Fund Research Projects(CAAIXSJLJJ2023MindSpore11)the program of China Scholarships Council(No.CXXM2101180001)。
文摘Accurate seasonal precipitation forecasts,especially for extreme events,are crucial to preventing meteorological hazards and their potential impacts on national development,social activity,and security.However,the intensity of summer precipitation is often largely underestimated in many current dynamic models.This study uses a deep learning method called Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks(CycleGAN)to improve the seasonal forecasts for June-JulyAugust precipitation in southeastern China by the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS 1.0).The results suggest that the CycleGAN-based model significantly improves the accuracy in predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of summer precipitation compared to the traditional quantile mapping(QM)method.Using the unpaired bias-correction model,we can also obtain advanced forecasts of the frequency,intensity,and duration of extreme precipitation events over the dynamic model predictions.This study expands the potential applications of deep learning models toward improving seasonal precipitation forecasts.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3003903)Natural Science Foundation of Beijing(Grant No.8222079)and of China(Grant No.42475014,U2442204)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(2023Z001).
文摘This study investigates extreme rainfall episodes along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in North China from 30 July to 1 August 2023.It focuses on two types of extreme hourly rainfall rates(HRRs),i.e.,the maximum regionalaverage HRR and site-observed HRR,which exhibited sequential development over southern,middle,and northern key regions.These rainfall extremes occurred in an environment where a high-pressure barrier over North China prevented the intrusion of cold air masses from the north while a northward-moving typhoon remnant vortex and its associated low-level jet(LLJ)transported warm and moist airflow from the south.Two distinct echo evolution modes and convection initiation mechanisms are identified for the two types of extreme HRRs.The maximum regional-average HRR occurred when the LLJ arrived to the east of the key regions,while the maximum site-observed HRR occurred when the warmer vortex center influenced the regions.Taking the northern key region as a representation,at the time of the maximum regional-average HRR,slantwise ascent of the airflow along a warm-frontal-like boundary released energy related to symmetrical instability,resulting in stratiform rainfall with weak convective cores.The transport of locally initiated convection over the eastern plain region,where the atmospheric stratification was more potentially unstable,also significantly contributed.When the maximum site-observed HRR occurred,the terrain lifting of warm and moist southeast airflow led to intense convection over the mountain foothills.Overall,the passage of the warm-core typhoon remnant vortex and interaction with Taihang Mountains determined the timing and location of extreme HRRs across the key regions.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Fund of China(Nos.42442015,42274111)。
文摘1 EXTREME DROUGHT AND HYDROGEODESY TECHNOLOGIES The World Meteorological Organization has officially declared 2023 as the hottest year on record,with the average global temperature surpassing pre-industrial(1850-1900)average by 1.45℃.While temperature is not the only climate observable from the complex processes for the geneses of droughts,recent hottest years have witnessed numerous instances of extreme droughts.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFB3710204)Guangxi Science and Technology Major Program(Grant No.AA23023028-1)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China for Distinguished Young Scientists(Grant No.JQ2022E007)Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Science and Technology Plan(Grant No.2023AA003).
文摘Accurate crown control is paramount for ensuring the quality of hot-rolled strip products.Given the multitude of influencing parameters and the intricate coupling and genetic relationships among them,the conventional crown control method is no longer sufficient to meet the precision requirements of schedule-free rolling.To address this limitation,an optimization framework for hot-rolled strip crown control was developed based on model-driven digital twin(MDDT).This framework enhances the strip crown control precision by facilitating collaborative operations among physical entities,virtual models,and functional application layers.In virtual modeling,a data-driven approach that integrates the extreme gradient boosting and the improved Harris hawk optimization algorithm was firstly proposed to fit the relationship between key process parameters and strip crown,and a global-local collaborative training strategy was proposed to enhance the model adaptability to diverse working conditions.Subsequently,the influence of crucial process factors on the virtual model was examined through model responses.Furthermore,a novel optimization mode for crown control based on MDDT was established by aligning and reconstructing both the physical and virtual models,thereby enhancing the crown control precision.Finally,data trials were conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.The results indicated that the proposed method exhibited satisfactory performance and could be effectively utilized to improve the crown control precision.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3003805)Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2022356)Guangzhou Basic and Applied Basic Research Project(Grant No.2023A04J0955).
文摘This paper presents a new type of triangular Sharp Eagle wave energy converter(WEC)platform.On the basis of the linear potential flow theory and the finite element analysis method,the hydrodynamic performance and structural response of the platform are studied,considering the actual platform motion and free surface rise under extreme sea states.First,the effects of the wave frequency and direction on the wave-induced loads and dynamic responses were examined.The motion at a wave direction angle of 0°is relatively low.On this basis,the angle constrained by the two sides of the Sharp Eagle floaters should be aligned with the main wave direction to avoid significant platform motion under extreme sea states.Additionally,the structural response of the platform,including the wave-absorbing floaters,is investigated.The results highlighted that the conditions or locations where yielding,buckling,and fatigue failures occur were different.In this context,the connection area of the Sharp Eagle floaters and platform is prone to yielding failure under oblique wave action,whereas the pontoon and side of the Sharp Eagle floaters are prone to buckling failure during significant vertical motion.Additionally,fatigue damage is most likely to occur at the connection between the middle column on both sides of the Sharp Eagle floaters and the pontoons.The findings of this paper revealed an intrinsic connection between wave-induced loads and the dynamic and structural responses of the platform,which provides a useful reference for the improved design of WECs.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,No.ZR2023MH331.
文摘BACKGROUND A case study of multiple distinct levels of skipped thoracolumbar spine infection was reported in which 13 successful vacuum sealing drainage(VSD)surgeries were treated.CASE SUMMARY The patient underwent a total of 13 procedures within our medical facility,including five performed under local anesthesia and eight performed under general anesthesia.The source of the ailment was ultimately identified as Enterobacter cloacae.After the last procedure,the patient's symptoms were alleviated,and the recovery process was satisfactory.Three months post-operation,the Japanese Orthopaedic Association scores had improved to 100%.Imageological examination revealed a satisfactory position of internal fixation,and the abnormal signals in the vertebral body and intervertebral space had been eliminated when compared to the pre-operative results.CONCLUSION The study demonstrates that the extreme lateral approach debridement combined with multiple VSD operations is a secure and successful method of treatment for recurrent spinal infection,providing an alternative to traditional surgery.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFE0106300)Norges Forskningsråd(328886).
文摘This study investigates trends in extreme precipitation events(EPEs)across Antarctica from 1979 to 2023,analyzing changes in EPE frequency,intensity,and the proportion of extreme to total precipitation.Using Self-Organizing Map(SOM)techniques,the study distinguishes the contributions from thermodynamic,dynamic,and interaction components in explaining these trends.Positive EPE occurrence trends are observed across the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas,Dronning Maud Land,and parts of the Southern Ocean,with declines limited to Queen Mary Land.Thermodynamic factors,responsible for 96.0%of the overall trend,are driven by increased water vapor content in polar air masses.Dynamic contributions,representing 10.8%,are linked to a strengthened Amundsen Sea Low(ASL)associated with the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)and Pacific South American(PSA)trends.Interaction effects make a slightly negative contribution(-6.8%)to the overall trend.Variations in water vapor transport and vertical velocity tied to annual 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies further explain EPE trends.These findings provide insight into the atmospheric processes that influence Antarctic EPEs,with implications for understanding the climatic impact on the polar environment.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42150204 and 2288101)supported by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(BX20230045)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2023M730279)。
文摘A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and development of the NMI model and then emphasize that the NMI model represents a new tool for identifying the basic physics of how climate change influences mid-to-high latitude weather extremes.The building of the NMI model took place over three main periods.In the 1990s,a nonlinear Schr?dinger(NLS)equation model was presented to describe atmospheric blocking as a wave packet;however,it could not depict the lifetime(10-20 days)of atmospheric blocking.In the 2000s,we proposed an NMI model of atmospheric blocking in a uniform basic flow by making a scale-separation assumption and deriving an eddyforced NLS equation.This model succeeded in describing the life cycle of atmospheric blocking.In the 2020s,the NMI model was extended to include the impact of a changing climate mainly by altering the basic zonal winds and the magnitude of the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy).Model results show that when PVy is smaller,blocking has a weaker dispersion and a stronger nonlinearity,so blocking can be more persistent and have a larger zonal scale and weaker eastward movement,thus favoring stronger weather extremes.However,when PVy is much smaller and below a critical threshold under much stronger winter Arctic warming of global warming,atmospheric blocking becomes locally less persistent and shows a much stronger westward movement,which acts to inhibit local cold extremes.Such a case does not happen in summer under global warming because PVy fails to fall below the critical threshold.Thus,our theory indicates that global warming can render summer-blocking anticyclones and mid-to-high latitude heatwaves more persistent,intense,and widespread.
