This article analyzes the Pareto optimal allocations,agreeable trades and agreeable bets under the maxmin Choquet expected utility(MCEU)model.We provide several useful characterizations for Pareto optimal allocations ...This article analyzes the Pareto optimal allocations,agreeable trades and agreeable bets under the maxmin Choquet expected utility(MCEU)model.We provide several useful characterizations for Pareto optimal allocations for risk averse agents.We derive the formulation descriptions for non-existence agreeable trades or agreeable bets for risk neutral agents.We build some relationships between ex-ante stage and interim stage on agreeable trades or bets when new information arrives.展开更多
This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese crop insurance program in terms of farmers＇ utility and welfare. A simulation model based on the power utility function was first developed to evaluate the...This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese crop insurance program in terms of farmers＇ utility and welfare. A simulation model based on the power utility function was first developed to evaluate the effectiveness of crop insurance. Then, the Monte Carlo approach was used to generate the datasets of area, price, yield, cost, and income based on the characteristics of representative farmers, which were clustered and calibrated using the farm-level data of 574 individual farmers from five Chinese provinces. Finally, the effectiveness of Chinese crop insurance was evaluated by comparing the certainty equivalence（CE） of farmers＇ utility/welfare under alternative crop insurance scenarios. Government subsidy is a necessary premise for implementing the crop insurance program. The government should subsidize more than 50% of the crop insurance premium to motivate more farmers to participate in the program. The findings also show that the current crop insurance program in China has increased the farmers＇ welfare but still need to be improved to achieve the Pareto improvement and to make full use of the financial fund of the government. This paper is believed to not only extend academic research but also has significant implications for policymakers, especially in the context of rapid development of Chinese crop insurance with much issues such as rate, subsidy and coverage level needed to be improved.展开更多
We propose a forward approach to study the performance of liquidation strategies under sequential model parameter updates.The forward liquidation program consists of pasting forward in time and in a time-consistent fa...We propose a forward approach to study the performance of liquidation strategies under sequential model parameter updates.The forward liquidation program consists of pasting forward in time and in a time-consistent fashion a series of optimal liquidation problems.They are triggered at the parameter shift instances,thus entirely eliminating model error,and last at most till the next parameter update.However,due to the nature of the model dynamics,solutions may cease to exist in finite time,even before the subsequent parameter update.Furthermore,forward liquidation strategies may never lead to full liquidation,even though they maximize the average utility of revenue and always preserve time-consistency.In juxtaposition,the traditional approach delivers full liquidation at the sought horizon but encounters considerable model error,generates value erosion,and is time-inconsistent.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12171471)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20221543).
文摘This article analyzes the Pareto optimal allocations,agreeable trades and agreeable bets under the maxmin Choquet expected utility(MCEU)model.We provide several useful characterizations for Pareto optimal allocations for risk averse agents.We derive the formulation descriptions for non-existence agreeable trades or agreeable bets for risk neutral agents.We build some relationships between ex-ante stage and interim stage on agreeable trades or bets when new information arrives.
基金the National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the 12th Five-year Plan period (2014BAL07B03-02)Agricultural Risk Management Projet Cooperated with Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
文摘This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese crop insurance program in terms of farmers＇ utility and welfare. A simulation model based on the power utility function was first developed to evaluate the effectiveness of crop insurance. Then, the Monte Carlo approach was used to generate the datasets of area, price, yield, cost, and income based on the characteristics of representative farmers, which were clustered and calibrated using the farm-level data of 574 individual farmers from five Chinese provinces. Finally, the effectiveness of Chinese crop insurance was evaluated by comparing the certainty equivalence（CE） of farmers＇ utility/welfare under alternative crop insurance scenarios. Government subsidy is a necessary premise for implementing the crop insurance program. The government should subsidize more than 50% of the crop insurance premium to motivate more farmers to participate in the program. The findings also show that the current crop insurance program in China has increased the farmers＇ welfare but still need to be improved to achieve the Pareto improvement and to make full use of the financial fund of the government. This paper is believed to not only extend academic research but also has significant implications for policymakers, especially in the context of rapid development of Chinese crop insurance with much issues such as rate, subsidy and coverage level needed to be improved.
文摘We propose a forward approach to study the performance of liquidation strategies under sequential model parameter updates.The forward liquidation program consists of pasting forward in time and in a time-consistent fashion a series of optimal liquidation problems.They are triggered at the parameter shift instances,thus entirely eliminating model error,and last at most till the next parameter update.However,due to the nature of the model dynamics,solutions may cease to exist in finite time,even before the subsequent parameter update.Furthermore,forward liquidation strategies may never lead to full liquidation,even though they maximize the average utility of revenue and always preserve time-consistency.In juxtaposition,the traditional approach delivers full liquidation at the sought horizon but encounters considerable model error,generates value erosion,and is time-inconsistent.
