Human-elephant conflict(HEC)poses a major socio-ecological challenge across elephant range states.Since 2015,the National Forest Ecosystem Research Station of China based in Xishuangbanna has developed the Elephant Ea...Human-elephant conflict(HEC)poses a major socio-ecological challenge across elephant range states.Since 2015,the National Forest Ecosystem Research Station of China based in Xishuangbanna has developed the Elephant Early-warning System(EEWS),a novel approach that has demonstrably reduced the risk of HEC incidents-particularly those involving direct encounters between people and elephants.By dynamically maintaining safety buffers,this system safeguards endangered elephants while mitigating human safety risks during livelihood activities and ensuring uninterrupted elephant movement.Building upon the C4ISR framework(Command,Control,Communications,Computers,Intelligence,Surveillance,and Reconnaissance),EEWS integrates key technological and institutional innovations-including the widespread adoption of mobile internet,deployment of camera traps,use of drones,and cross-sectoral governance reforms.The EEWS’s conceptual framework and technical architecture have been already recognized by local government and are now being scaled up from Xishuangbanna to the entire Asian elephant range in China,establishing a replicable“China model”for achieving harmonious human-elephant coexistence.This study reviews the conceptual foundations,development,and field implementation of EEWS,and offers recommendations to guide future refinement and broader application.展开更多
The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as ...The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.展开更多
Relying on the advanced information technologies, such as information monitoring, data mining, natural language processing etc., the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed. The system consists of techn...Relying on the advanced information technologies, such as information monitoring, data mining, natural language processing etc., the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed. The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval, technology information monitoring, technology threat evaluation, and crisis response and management subsystem, which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring, trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology. Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy, timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.展开更多
As a large country in the world, it is both necessary and possible to develop and operate a pre-warning system for social stability, says Prof. Niu Wenyuan, chief scientist for strate-
The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so t...The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/I model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority.展开更多
Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dang...Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dangers posed by seismic disturbances,China has introduced a comprehensive high-speed railway earthquake early-warning system.This article presents an in-depth examination of this system,encompassing aspects such as its developmental evolution,architectural design,and pivotal technologies.Furthermore,it ventures into the realm of future enhancements and developmental pathways for the system,fusing emergent findings from earthquake early warning research with advancements in artificial intelligence.展开更多
Objective To explore the feasibility of constructing a lung cancer early-warning risk model based on facial image features,providing novel insights into the early screening of lung cancer.Methods This study included p...Objective To explore the feasibility of constructing a lung cancer early-warning risk model based on facial image features,providing novel insights into the early screening of lung cancer.Methods This study included patients with pulmonary nodules diagnosed at the Physical Examination Center of Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from November 1,2019 to December 31,2024,as well as patients with lung cancer diagnosed in the Oncology Departments of Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine and Longhua Hospital during the same period.The facial image information of patients with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer was collected using the TFDA-1 tongue and facial diagnosis instrument,and the facial diagnosis features were extracted from it by deep learning technology.Statistical analysis was conducted on the objective facial diagnosis characteristics of the two groups of participants to explore the differences in their facial image characteristics,and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression was used to screen the characteristic variables.Based on the screened feature variables,four machine learning methods:random forest,logistic regression,support vector machine(SVM),and gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)were used to establish lung cancer classification models independently.Meanwhile,the model performance was evaluated by indicators such as sensitivity,specificity,F1 score,precision,accuracy,the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),and the area under the precision-recall curve(AP).Results A total of 1275 patients with pulmonary nodules and 1623 patients with lung cancer were included in this study.After propensity score matching(PSM)to adjust for gender and age,535 patients were finally included in the pulmonary nodule group and the lung cancer group,respectively.There were significant differences in multiple color space metrics(such as R,G,B,V,L,a,b,Cr,H,Y,and Cb)and texture metrics[such as gray-levcl co-occurrence matrix(GLCM)-contrast(CON)and GLCM-inverse different moment(IDM)]between the two groups of individuals with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer(P<0.05).To construct a classification model,LASSO regression was used to select 63 key features from the initial 136 facial features.Based on this feature set,the SVM model demonstrated the best performance after 10-fold stratified cross-validation.The model achieved an average AUC of 0.8729 and average accuracy of 0.7990 on the internal test set.Further validation on an independent test set confirmed the model’s robust performance(AUC=0.8233,accuracy=0.7290),indicating its good generalization ability.Feature importance analysis demonstrated that color space indicators and the whole/lip Cr components(including color-B-0,wholecolor-Cr,and lipcolor-Cr)were the core factors in the model’s classification decisions,while texture indicators[GLCM-angular second moment(ASM)_2,GLCM-IDM_1,GLCM-CON_1,GLCM-entropy(ENT)_2]played an important auxiliary role.Conclusion The facial image features of patients with lung cancer and pulmonary nodules show significant differences in color and texture characteristics in multiple areas.The various models constructed based on facial image features all demonstrate good performance,indicating that facial image features can serve as potential biomarkers for lung cancer risk prediction,providing a non-invasive and feasible new approach for early lung cancer screening.展开更多
By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant ...By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.展开更多
By analyzing the heavy fog data in Chizhou City in recent 50 years(1959-2007),the general rules of meteorological elements variations were found when the heavy fog happened.The meteorological elements included the tem...By analyzing the heavy fog data in Chizhou City in recent 50 years(1959-2007),the general rules of meteorological elements variations were found when the heavy fog happened.The meteorological elements included the temperature,humidity,wind direction,wind speed,air pressure and so on.The conceptual models of high-altitude and ground situation were established when the heavy fog happened in Chizhou City.Based on considering sufficiently the special geographical environment in Chizhou City,we found the key factors which affected the local heavy fog via the relative analyses.By using the statistical forecast methods which included the second-level judgment method and regression method of event probability and so on,the forecast mode equation of heavy fog was established.Moreover,the objective forecast system of heavy fog in Chizhou City was also manufactured.It provided the basis and platform which could be referred for the heavy fog forecast,service and the release of early-warning signal.展开更多
The most common method used to describe earthquake activity is based on the changes in physical parameters of the earth's surface such as displacement of active fault and seismic wave.However,such approach is not ...The most common method used to describe earthquake activity is based on the changes in physical parameters of the earth's surface such as displacement of active fault and seismic wave.However,such approach is not successful in forecasting the movement behaviors of faults.In the present study,a new mechanical model of fault activity,considering the shear strength on the fault plane and the influence of the resistance force,is established based on the occurrence condition of earthquake.A remote real-time monitoring system is correspondingly developed to obtain the changes in mechanical components within fault.Taking into consideration the local geological conditions and the history of fault activity in Zhangjiakou of China,an active fault exposed in the region of Zhangjiakou is selected to be directly monitored by the real-time monitoring technique.A thorough investigation on local fault structures results in the selection of two suitable sites for monitoring potential active tectonic movements of Zhangjiakou fault.Two monitoring curves of shear strength,recorded during a monitoring period of 6 months,turn out to be steady,which indicates that the potential seismic activities hardly occur in the adjacent region in the near future.This monitoring technique can be used for early-warning prediction of the movement of active fault,and can help to further gain an insight into the interaction between fault activity and relevant mechanisms.展开更多
On the basis of Landsat TM data of the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） Economic Zone in 1991, 2001 and 2008, this article, taking 90 counties in this region as study units, built spatial data transformation models, ecosys...On the basis of Landsat TM data of the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） Economic Zone in 1991, 2001 and 2008, this article, taking 90 counties in this region as study units, built spatial data transformation models, ecosystem service value （ESV） and coordination degree of eco-economic system （CDES） models. With the aid of ArcGIS9.3, mass grid and vector data has been processed for spatial analyses. ESV and CDES indexes have demonstrated the relationship between economic development and eco-environment system and its evolu- tion characteristics in the researched areas. Furthermore, the indexes have also been used for functional zoning and pattern recognition. Some results can be shown as follows. Firstly, since 1991, land use in the YRD has greatly changed： urban land area has increased primar- ily from original paddy land, dry land, grassland, garden plot and other land. Secondly, the ESV model has proved the deterioration trend of the YRD ecological system from 1991 to 2001 and slower degradation trend during 2001-2008. Also, it is illustrated that land-use conversion from water area and paddy field to urban area and dry land could cause great damage to ecosystem stabilization. Thirdly, GDP in the central and southern parts of the YRD is higher than that in the northern part since 1991. GDP growth rate in the central part is higher than that in the northern part during 1991-2001. This growth rate in the central part is also higher than that in the southern and northern parts of the YRD from 2001 to 2008. Fourthly, the YRD could be categorized into 12 types of subregions in terms of CDES index. According to its spatial characteristic of CDES index value in the study area, eco-economic conflict area with low CDES value which is located in the central part is surrounded by eco-coordinated areas with high CDES values. This illustrates a core-periphery spatial structure exists in the YRD. During 1991-2001, the CDES value implied the convergent de- terioration trend of eco-economic system in the study area; while it gradually stepped into coexistence of divergent deterioration and coordination during 2001-2008. Finally, this paper analyzed five subregions in the YRD, including initially degrading zone, initially coordinative zone, continuously degrading zone, coordination-declined.zone and coordination-promoted zone, based on eco-economic coordination and evolution patterns. And these subregions can be recognized and categorized by spatial transformation model.展开更多
The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,par...The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period.Herein,a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure,a statistical model,and finite-element numerical simulation.First,a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam mechanical parameters was developed,which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model,an improved inversion objective function,and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm.Then,a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established,and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated.Subsequently,mechanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change.Finally,a new earlywarning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model.The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels,especially high water levels.展开更多
The existing early-warning system in metro construction are generally based on traditional single-sensor data and simple analytic model, which makes it difficult to deal with the complex and comprehensive environment ...The existing early-warning system in metro construction are generally based on traditional single-sensor data and simple analytic model, which makes it difficult to deal with the complex and comprehensive environment in metro construction. In this paper, the framework of early-warning threshold for metro construction collapse risk based on D-S evidence theory and rough set is built. By combining the primary data fusion collected based on rough set with the secondary data fusion which is based on D-S evidence theory, the integration of multiple information in metro construction is realized and the risk assessment methods are optimized. A case trial based on Hangzhou metro construction collapse accident is also carried out to exemplify the framework. The empirical analysis guarantees the completeness and independence of the prediction information, and realizes the dynamic prediction of the variation trend of metro construction collapse risk.展开更多
Analyzing the service behavior of high dams and establishing early-warning systems for them have become increasingly important in ensuring their long-term service.Current analysis methods used to obtain safety monitor...Analyzing the service behavior of high dams and establishing early-warning systems for them have become increasingly important in ensuring their long-term service.Current analysis methods used to obtain safety monitoring data are suited only to single survey point data.Unreliable or even paradoxical results are inevitably obtained when processing large amounts of monitoring data,thereby causing difficulty in acquiring precise conclusions.Therefore,we have developed a new method based on multi-source information fusion for conducting a comprehensive analysis of prototype monitoring data of high dams.In addition,we propose the use of decision information entropy analysis for building a diagnosis and early-warning system for the long-term service of high dams.Data metrics reduction is achieved using information fusion at the data level.A Bayesian information fusion is then conducted at the decision level to obtain a comprehensive diagnosis.Early-warning outcomes can be released after sorting analysis results from multi-positions in the dam according to importance.A case study indicates that the new method can effectively handle large amounts of monitoring data from numerous survey points.It can likewise obtain precise real-time results and export comprehensive early-warning outcomes from multi-positions of high dams.展开更多
The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the risk brings heavy loss.The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic,so the key of early-wa...The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the risk brings heavy loss.The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic,so the key of early-warning is to choice risk early-warning index correctly and evaluate risk grade quantitatively.According to the element extension theory,the rhombus inference model is applied to establish the index system.And the problem of risk grade evaluation can be solved by the assessment model of multi-index performance parameter,which is developed by the extension engineering method.Finally,the main shipping risks and their grades are identified by the example analysis based on the statistical data,which shows the effective and feasible of the shipping risk early-warning method.展开更多
Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural ...Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.展开更多
The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop, it directly affect the enterprise financial health. So, it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure ...The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop, it directly affect the enterprise financial health. So, it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman’sZ calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.展开更多
According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destru...According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.展开更多
Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been ...Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CCR wall〈 sequences for the pandemic years （or ＋ -1 to 2 years） are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.展开更多
The meteorological early-warning loudspeaker is a specific initiative for the meteorological departments to address the issues concerning issues concerning agriculture,countryside and farmers.Its significance is that ...The meteorological early-warning loudspeaker is a specific initiative for the meteorological departments to address the issues concerning issues concerning agriculture,countryside and farmers.Its significance is that it can promptly deliver the early-warning information concerning some meteorological disasters(such as torrential rains,typhoons,cold wave,hail)to the areas affected,so as to provide reference and protection for agricultural production and effectively reduce the loss of agricultural producers.Up to now,the meteorological early-warning loudspeakers in Benxi have covered the villages.However,due to irregular occurrence of meteorological disasters,the listeners will turn off the information receivers of meteorological early-warning loudspeakers when they fail to receive meteorological information for a long time,so that the users can not promptly know the early-warning information regarding some sudden meteorological disasters.In view of this,the meteorological departments have introduced a series of management measures,such as the daily use of loudspeakers to publish weather forecast information,aimed at improving the online rate and usage rate of meteorological loudspeakers.And the management platform for online rate of meteorological early-warning loudspeakers is an important part of the management system.展开更多
基金funded by the Field Station Foundation of CAS,Lancang River Conservation Fund Project of SHANSHUI Conservation Center,the SEE Noah’s Ark Project of Beijing Entrepreneurs’Environmental Protection Foundation,the 14th Five-Year Plan of Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(E3ZKFF9B01)the High-End Foreign Expert Recruitment Plan,Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(E3YN105B01)the Yunnan Provincial Foreign Expert Project(202505AO120035).
文摘Human-elephant conflict(HEC)poses a major socio-ecological challenge across elephant range states.Since 2015,the National Forest Ecosystem Research Station of China based in Xishuangbanna has developed the Elephant Early-warning System(EEWS),a novel approach that has demonstrably reduced the risk of HEC incidents-particularly those involving direct encounters between people and elephants.By dynamically maintaining safety buffers,this system safeguards endangered elephants while mitigating human safety risks during livelihood activities and ensuring uninterrupted elephant movement.Building upon the C4ISR framework(Command,Control,Communications,Computers,Intelligence,Surveillance,and Reconnaissance),EEWS integrates key technological and institutional innovations-including the widespread adoption of mobile internet,deployment of camera traps,use of drones,and cross-sectoral governance reforms.The EEWS’s conceptual framework and technical architecture have been already recognized by local government and are now being scaled up from Xishuangbanna to the entire Asian elephant range in China,establishing a replicable“China model”for achieving harmonious human-elephant coexistence.This study reviews the conceptual foundations,development,and field implementation of EEWS,and offers recommendations to guide future refinement and broader application.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71303238)the National Science and Technology Support Plan Projects (2012BAH20B04)the compilation group of the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2015–2024)
文摘The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.
基金Sponsored by Excellent Young Scholars Research Fund of Beijing Institute of Technology (c2007Y0820)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET)"985" Philosophy and Social Science Innovation Base of the Ministry of Education(107008200400024)
文摘Relying on the advanced information technologies, such as information monitoring, data mining, natural language processing etc., the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed. The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval, technology information monitoring, technology threat evaluation, and crisis response and management subsystem, which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring, trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology. Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy, timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.
文摘As a large country in the world, it is both necessary and possible to develop and operate a pre-warning system for social stability, says Prof. Niu Wenyuan, chief scientist for strate-
基金Project 70533050 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/I model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Development Plan of China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.(J2022G007)China Academy of Railway Sciences Group Co.,Ltd.(2023YJ103).
文摘Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dangers posed by seismic disturbances,China has introduced a comprehensive high-speed railway earthquake early-warning system.This article presents an in-depth examination of this system,encompassing aspects such as its developmental evolution,architectural design,and pivotal technologies.Furthermore,it ventures into the realm of future enhancements and developmental pathways for the system,fusing emergent findings from earthquake early warning research with advancements in artificial intelligence.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(82305090)Shanghai Municipal Health Commission(20234Y0168)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1703301)。
文摘Objective To explore the feasibility of constructing a lung cancer early-warning risk model based on facial image features,providing novel insights into the early screening of lung cancer.Methods This study included patients with pulmonary nodules diagnosed at the Physical Examination Center of Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from November 1,2019 to December 31,2024,as well as patients with lung cancer diagnosed in the Oncology Departments of Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine and Longhua Hospital during the same period.The facial image information of patients with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer was collected using the TFDA-1 tongue and facial diagnosis instrument,and the facial diagnosis features were extracted from it by deep learning technology.Statistical analysis was conducted on the objective facial diagnosis characteristics of the two groups of participants to explore the differences in their facial image characteristics,and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression was used to screen the characteristic variables.Based on the screened feature variables,four machine learning methods:random forest,logistic regression,support vector machine(SVM),and gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)were used to establish lung cancer classification models independently.Meanwhile,the model performance was evaluated by indicators such as sensitivity,specificity,F1 score,precision,accuracy,the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),and the area under the precision-recall curve(AP).Results A total of 1275 patients with pulmonary nodules and 1623 patients with lung cancer were included in this study.After propensity score matching(PSM)to adjust for gender and age,535 patients were finally included in the pulmonary nodule group and the lung cancer group,respectively.There were significant differences in multiple color space metrics(such as R,G,B,V,L,a,b,Cr,H,Y,and Cb)and texture metrics[such as gray-levcl co-occurrence matrix(GLCM)-contrast(CON)and GLCM-inverse different moment(IDM)]between the two groups of individuals with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer(P<0.05).To construct a classification model,LASSO regression was used to select 63 key features from the initial 136 facial features.Based on this feature set,the SVM model demonstrated the best performance after 10-fold stratified cross-validation.The model achieved an average AUC of 0.8729 and average accuracy of 0.7990 on the internal test set.Further validation on an independent test set confirmed the model’s robust performance(AUC=0.8233,accuracy=0.7290),indicating its good generalization ability.Feature importance analysis demonstrated that color space indicators and the whole/lip Cr components(including color-B-0,wholecolor-Cr,and lipcolor-Cr)were the core factors in the model’s classification decisions,while texture indicators[GLCM-angular second moment(ASM)_2,GLCM-IDM_1,GLCM-CON_1,GLCM-entropy(ENT)_2]played an important auxiliary role.Conclusion The facial image features of patients with lung cancer and pulmonary nodules show significant differences in color and texture characteristics in multiple areas.The various models constructed based on facial image features all demonstrate good performance,indicating that facial image features can serve as potential biomarkers for lung cancer risk prediction,providing a non-invasive and feasible new approach for early lung cancer screening.
基金Supported by a Grant from the Science and Technology Project ofYunnan Province(2006NG02)~~
文摘By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.
文摘By analyzing the heavy fog data in Chizhou City in recent 50 years(1959-2007),the general rules of meteorological elements variations were found when the heavy fog happened.The meteorological elements included the temperature,humidity,wind direction,wind speed,air pressure and so on.The conceptual models of high-altitude and ground situation were established when the heavy fog happened in Chizhou City.Based on considering sufficiently the special geographical environment in Chizhou City,we found the key factors which affected the local heavy fog via the relative analyses.By using the statistical forecast methods which included the second-level judgment method and regression method of event probability and so on,the forecast mode equation of heavy fog was established.Moreover,the objective forecast system of heavy fog in Chizhou City was also manufactured.It provided the basis and platform which could be referred for the heavy fog forecast,service and the release of early-warning signal.
文摘The most common method used to describe earthquake activity is based on the changes in physical parameters of the earth's surface such as displacement of active fault and seismic wave.However,such approach is not successful in forecasting the movement behaviors of faults.In the present study,a new mechanical model of fault activity,considering the shear strength on the fault plane and the influence of the resistance force,is established based on the occurrence condition of earthquake.A remote real-time monitoring system is correspondingly developed to obtain the changes in mechanical components within fault.Taking into consideration the local geological conditions and the history of fault activity in Zhangjiakou of China,an active fault exposed in the region of Zhangjiakou is selected to be directly monitored by the real-time monitoring technique.A thorough investigation on local fault structures results in the selection of two suitable sites for monitoring potential active tectonic movements of Zhangjiakou fault.Two monitoring curves of shear strength,recorded during a monitoring period of 6 months,turn out to be steady,which indicates that the potential seismic activities hardly occur in the adjacent region in the near future.This monitoring technique can be used for early-warning prediction of the movement of active fault,and can help to further gain an insight into the interaction between fault activity and relevant mechanisms.
基金National Youth Science Foundation, No.40971101 The Major Project of Science and Technology Research for the 1 lth Five-Year Plan of China, No.2006BAJ05A06
文摘On the basis of Landsat TM data of the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） Economic Zone in 1991, 2001 and 2008, this article, taking 90 counties in this region as study units, built spatial data transformation models, ecosystem service value （ESV） and coordination degree of eco-economic system （CDES） models. With the aid of ArcGIS9.3, mass grid and vector data has been processed for spatial analyses. ESV and CDES indexes have demonstrated the relationship between economic development and eco-environment system and its evolu- tion characteristics in the researched areas. Furthermore, the indexes have also been used for functional zoning and pattern recognition. Some results can be shown as follows. Firstly, since 1991, land use in the YRD has greatly changed： urban land area has increased primar- ily from original paddy land, dry land, grassland, garden plot and other land. Secondly, the ESV model has proved the deterioration trend of the YRD ecological system from 1991 to 2001 and slower degradation trend during 2001-2008. Also, it is illustrated that land-use conversion from water area and paddy field to urban area and dry land could cause great damage to ecosystem stabilization. Thirdly, GDP in the central and southern parts of the YRD is higher than that in the northern part since 1991. GDP growth rate in the central part is higher than that in the northern part during 1991-2001. This growth rate in the central part is also higher than that in the southern and northern parts of the YRD from 2001 to 2008. Fourthly, the YRD could be categorized into 12 types of subregions in terms of CDES index. According to its spatial characteristic of CDES index value in the study area, eco-economic conflict area with low CDES value which is located in the central part is surrounded by eco-coordinated areas with high CDES values. This illustrates a core-periphery spatial structure exists in the YRD. During 1991-2001, the CDES value implied the convergent de- terioration trend of eco-economic system in the study area; while it gradually stepped into coexistence of divergent deterioration and coordination during 2001-2008. Finally, this paper analyzed five subregions in the YRD, including initially degrading zone, initially coordinative zone, continuously degrading zone, coordination-declined.zone and coordination-promoted zone, based on eco-economic coordination and evolution patterns. And these subregions can be recognized and categorized by spatial transformation model.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC0407104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.52079049 and 51739003)+1 种基金the Central University Basic Research Project(Grant No.B200202160)the Water Science Project of Xinjiang(Grant No.YF 2020-05).
文摘The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period.Herein,a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure,a statistical model,and finite-element numerical simulation.First,a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam mechanical parameters was developed,which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model,an improved inversion objective function,and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm.Then,a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established,and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated.Subsequently,mechanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change.Finally,a new earlywarning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model.The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels,especially high water levels.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71603284)the Humanity and Social Science Research Foundation of Ministry of Education(16YJC630068)
文摘The existing early-warning system in metro construction are generally based on traditional single-sensor data and simple analytic model, which makes it difficult to deal with the complex and comprehensive environment in metro construction. In this paper, the framework of early-warning threshold for metro construction collapse risk based on D-S evidence theory and rough set is built. By combining the primary data fusion collected based on rough set with the secondary data fusion which is based on D-S evidence theory, the integration of multiple information in metro construction is realized and the risk assessment methods are optimized. A case trial based on Hangzhou metro construction collapse accident is also carried out to exemplify the framework. The empirical analysis guarantees the completeness and independence of the prediction information, and realizes the dynamic prediction of the variation trend of metro construction collapse risk.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51139001,51179066,51079046,and 50909041)
文摘Analyzing the service behavior of high dams and establishing early-warning systems for them have become increasingly important in ensuring their long-term service.Current analysis methods used to obtain safety monitoring data are suited only to single survey point data.Unreliable or even paradoxical results are inevitably obtained when processing large amounts of monitoring data,thereby causing difficulty in acquiring precise conclusions.Therefore,we have developed a new method based on multi-source information fusion for conducting a comprehensive analysis of prototype monitoring data of high dams.In addition,we propose the use of decision information entropy analysis for building a diagnosis and early-warning system for the long-term service of high dams.Data metrics reduction is achieved using information fusion at the data level.A Bayesian information fusion is then conducted at the decision level to obtain a comprehensive diagnosis.Early-warning outcomes can be released after sorting analysis results from multi-positions in the dam according to importance.A case study indicates that the new method can effectively handle large amounts of monitoring data from numerous survey points.It can likewise obtain precise real-time results and export comprehensive early-warning outcomes from multi-positions of high dams.
基金the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin (No.07JCYBJC13100)
文摘The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the risk brings heavy loss.The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic,so the key of early-warning is to choice risk early-warning index correctly and evaluate risk grade quantitatively.According to the element extension theory,the rhombus inference model is applied to establish the index system.And the problem of risk grade evaluation can be solved by the assessment model of multi-index performance parameter,which is developed by the extension engineering method.Finally,the main shipping risks and their grades are identified by the example analysis based on the statistical data,which shows the effective and feasible of the shipping risk early-warning method.
文摘Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.
文摘The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop, it directly affect the enterprise financial health. So, it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman’sZ calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.
基金Fund by the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2002BA516A17 Foundation of Chinese Academy of Forestry Science, No.200114
文摘According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.
基金Project supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. JUSRP21117)the Program for Innovative Research Team of Jiangnan University (Grant No. 2008CX002)
文摘Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CCR wall〈 sequences for the pandemic years （or ＋ -1 to 2 years） are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.
文摘The meteorological early-warning loudspeaker is a specific initiative for the meteorological departments to address the issues concerning issues concerning agriculture,countryside and farmers.Its significance is that it can promptly deliver the early-warning information concerning some meteorological disasters(such as torrential rains,typhoons,cold wave,hail)to the areas affected,so as to provide reference and protection for agricultural production and effectively reduce the loss of agricultural producers.Up to now,the meteorological early-warning loudspeakers in Benxi have covered the villages.However,due to irregular occurrence of meteorological disasters,the listeners will turn off the information receivers of meteorological early-warning loudspeakers when they fail to receive meteorological information for a long time,so that the users can not promptly know the early-warning information regarding some sudden meteorological disasters.In view of this,the meteorological departments have introduced a series of management measures,such as the daily use of loudspeakers to publish weather forecast information,aimed at improving the online rate and usage rate of meteorological loudspeakers.And the management platform for online rate of meteorological early-warning loudspeakers is an important part of the management system.
