By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant ...By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.展开更多
As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their cu...As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their customer resources,it is crucial for banks to accurately predict customers with a tendency to churn.Aiming at the typical binary classification problem like customer churn,this paper establishes an early-warning model for credit card customer churn.That is a dual search algorithm named GSAIBAS by incorporating Golden Sine Algorithm(GSA)and an Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)is proposed to optimize the parameters of the CatBoost algorithm,which forms the GSAIBAS-CatBoost model.Especially,considering that the BAS algorithm has simple parameters and is easy to fall into local optimum,the Sigmoid nonlinear convergence factor and the lane flight equation are introduced to adjust the fixed step size of beetle.Then this improved BAS algorithm with variable step size is fused with the GSA to form a GSAIBAS algorithm which can achieve dual optimization.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made according to the data set of credit card customers from Analyttica official platform.The empirical results show that the values of Area Under Curve(AUC)and recall of the proposedmodel in this paper reach 96.15%and 95.56%,respectively,which are significantly better than the other 9 common machine learning models.Compared with several existing optimization algorithms,GSAIBAS algorithm has higher precision in the parameter optimization for CatBoost.Combined with two other customer churn data sets on Kaggle data platform,it is further verified that the model proposed in this paper is also valid and feasible.展开更多
To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting mo...To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.展开更多
Objective To explore the feasibility of constructing a lung cancer early-warning risk model based on facial image features,providing novel insights into the early screening of lung cancer.Methods This study included p...Objective To explore the feasibility of constructing a lung cancer early-warning risk model based on facial image features,providing novel insights into the early screening of lung cancer.Methods This study included patients with pulmonary nodules diagnosed at the Physical Examination Center of Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from November 1,2019 to December 31,2024,as well as patients with lung cancer diagnosed in the Oncology Departments of Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine and Longhua Hospital during the same period.The facial image information of patients with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer was collected using the TFDA-1 tongue and facial diagnosis instrument,and the facial diagnosis features were extracted from it by deep learning technology.Statistical analysis was conducted on the objective facial diagnosis characteristics of the two groups of participants to explore the differences in their facial image characteristics,and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression was used to screen the characteristic variables.Based on the screened feature variables,four machine learning methods:random forest,logistic regression,support vector machine(SVM),and gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)were used to establish lung cancer classification models independently.Meanwhile,the model performance was evaluated by indicators such as sensitivity,specificity,F1 score,precision,accuracy,the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),and the area under the precision-recall curve(AP).Results A total of 1275 patients with pulmonary nodules and 1623 patients with lung cancer were included in this study.After propensity score matching(PSM)to adjust for gender and age,535 patients were finally included in the pulmonary nodule group and the lung cancer group,respectively.There were significant differences in multiple color space metrics(such as R,G,B,V,L,a,b,Cr,H,Y,and Cb)and texture metrics[such as gray-levcl co-occurrence matrix(GLCM)-contrast(CON)and GLCM-inverse different moment(IDM)]between the two groups of individuals with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer(P<0.05).To construct a classification model,LASSO regression was used to select 63 key features from the initial 136 facial features.Based on this feature set,the SVM model demonstrated the best performance after 10-fold stratified cross-validation.The model achieved an average AUC of 0.8729 and average accuracy of 0.7990 on the internal test set.Further validation on an independent test set confirmed the model’s robust performance(AUC=0.8233,accuracy=0.7290),indicating its good generalization ability.Feature importance analysis demonstrated that color space indicators and the whole/lip Cr components(including color-B-0,wholecolor-Cr,and lipcolor-Cr)were the core factors in the model’s classification decisions,while texture indicators[GLCM-angular second moment(ASM)_2,GLCM-IDM_1,GLCM-CON_1,GLCM-entropy(ENT)_2]played an important auxiliary role.Conclusion The facial image features of patients with lung cancer and pulmonary nodules show significant differences in color and texture characteristics in multiple areas.The various models constructed based on facial image features all demonstrate good performance,indicating that facial image features can serve as potential biomarkers for lung cancer risk prediction,providing a non-invasive and feasible new approach for early lung cancer screening.展开更多
The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so t...The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/I model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority.展开更多
Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural ...Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.展开更多
Human-elephant conflict(HEC)poses a major socio-ecological challenge across elephant range states.Since 2015,the National Forest Ecosystem Research Station of China based in Xishuangbanna has developed the Elephant Ea...Human-elephant conflict(HEC)poses a major socio-ecological challenge across elephant range states.Since 2015,the National Forest Ecosystem Research Station of China based in Xishuangbanna has developed the Elephant Early-warning System(EEWS),a novel approach that has demonstrably reduced the risk of HEC incidents-particularly those involving direct encounters between people and elephants.By dynamically maintaining safety buffers,this system safeguards endangered elephants while mitigating human safety risks during livelihood activities and ensuring uninterrupted elephant movement.Building upon the C4ISR framework(Command,Control,Communications,Computers,Intelligence,Surveillance,and Reconnaissance),EEWS integrates key technological and institutional innovations-including the widespread adoption of mobile internet,deployment of camera traps,use of drones,and cross-sectoral governance reforms.The EEWS’s conceptual framework and technical architecture have been already recognized by local government and are now being scaled up from Xishuangbanna to the entire Asian elephant range in China,establishing a replicable“China model”for achieving harmonious human-elephant coexistence.This study reviews the conceptual foundations,development,and field implementation of EEWS,and offers recommendations to guide future refinement and broader application.展开更多
Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLM...Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture.展开更多
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy...In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is empl...Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor.展开更多
The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-bas...The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau.展开更多
Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(...Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].展开更多
To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the stre...To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.展开更多
Kinetic impact is the most practical planetary-defense technique,with momentum-transfer efficiency central to deflection design.We present a Monte Carlo photometric framework that couples ejecta sampling,dynamical evo...Kinetic impact is the most practical planetary-defense technique,with momentum-transfer efficiency central to deflection design.We present a Monte Carlo photometric framework that couples ejecta sampling,dynamical evolution,and image synthesis to compare directly with HST,LICIACube,ground-based and Lucy observations of the DART impact.Decomposing ejecta into(1)a highvelocity(~1600 m/s)plume exhibiting Na/K resonance,(2)a low-velocity(~1 m/s)conical component shaped by binary gravity and solar radiation pressure,and(3)meter-scale boulders,we quantify each component’s mass and momentum.Fitting photometric decay curves and morphological evolution yields size-velocity distributions and,via scaling laws,estimates of Dimorphos’bulk density,cratering parameters,and cohesive strength that agree with dynamical constraints.Photometric ejecta modeling therefore provides a robust route to constrain momentum enhancement and target properties,improving predictive capability for kinetic-deflection missions.展开更多
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ...Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.展开更多
This study demonstrates a novel integration of large language models,machine learning,and multicriteria decision-making to investigate self-moderation in small online communities,a topic under-explored compared to use...This study demonstrates a novel integration of large language models,machine learning,and multicriteria decision-making to investigate self-moderation in small online communities,a topic under-explored compared to user behavior and platform-driven moderation on social media.The proposed methodological framework(1)utilizes large language models for social media post analysis and categorization,(2)employs k-means clustering for content characterization,and(3)incorporates the TODIM(Tomada de Decisão Interativa Multicritério)method to determine moderation strategies based on expert judgments.In general,the fully integrated framework leverages the strengths of these intelligent systems in a more systematic evaluation of large-scale decision problems.When applied in social media moderation,this approach promotes nuanced and context-sensitive self-moderation by taking into account factors such as cultural background and geographic location.The application of this framework is demonstrated within Facebook groups.Eight distinct content clusters encompassing safety,harassment,diversity,and misinformation are identified.Analysis revealed a preference for content removal across all clusters,suggesting a cautious approach towards potentially harmful content.However,the framework also highlights the use of other moderation actions,like account suspension,depending on the content category.These findings contribute to the growing body of research on self-moderation and offer valuable insights for creating safer and more inclusive online spaces within smaller communities.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
Vegetation plays an important role in the environmental transport behavior of organic pollutants,however,the different roles of crops and natural vegetation have been ignored in most previous studies.In this study,we ...Vegetation plays an important role in the environmental transport behavior of organic pollutants,however,the different roles of crops and natural vegetation have been ignored in most previous studies.In this study,we developed the BETR-Urban-Rural-Veg model to quantitatively evaluate the influences of both natural vegetation and crops on the multimedia transport processes of Phenanthrene(PHE)and Benzo(a)pyrene(BaP)in mainland of China.The geographic distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon(PAH)emissions and concentrations were consistent,displaying higher levels in northern China while lower levels in southern China.Under seasonal simulations,for both natural vegetation and crops,PAH concentrations in winter and spring were 1.5 to 27-fold higher than in summer and autumn,especially for PHE.Owing to the higher leaf area index(LAI)of natural vegetation and harvesting of crops,the filter and sequestration effect of natural vegetation was stronger than crops,while the seasonal changes of PAH concentrations in crops were more significant than natural vegetation.Temperature,precipitation rates and LAI might have important influences on seasonal concentrations and overall persistence of PAHs.PHE was more sensitive to the impacts of seasonal environmental parameters.Under different landscape scenarios,average annual PAH concentrations in natural vegetation were always a little higher than those in crops,and the overall persistence of BaP was greatly affected increasing by 15.15%-16.47%.This improved model provides a useful tool for environmental management.The results of this study are expected to support land use plans and decision-making in China's mainland.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
基金Supported by a Grant from the Science and Technology Project ofYunnan Province(2006NG02)~~
文摘By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72071150,71871174).
文摘As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their customer resources,it is crucial for banks to accurately predict customers with a tendency to churn.Aiming at the typical binary classification problem like customer churn,this paper establishes an early-warning model for credit card customer churn.That is a dual search algorithm named GSAIBAS by incorporating Golden Sine Algorithm(GSA)and an Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)is proposed to optimize the parameters of the CatBoost algorithm,which forms the GSAIBAS-CatBoost model.Especially,considering that the BAS algorithm has simple parameters and is easy to fall into local optimum,the Sigmoid nonlinear convergence factor and the lane flight equation are introduced to adjust the fixed step size of beetle.Then this improved BAS algorithm with variable step size is fused with the GSA to form a GSAIBAS algorithm which can achieve dual optimization.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made according to the data set of credit card customers from Analyttica official platform.The empirical results show that the values of Area Under Curve(AUC)and recall of the proposedmodel in this paper reach 96.15%and 95.56%,respectively,which are significantly better than the other 9 common machine learning models.Compared with several existing optimization algorithms,GSAIBAS algorithm has higher precision in the parameter optimization for CatBoost.Combined with two other customer churn data sets on Kaggle data platform,it is further verified that the model proposed in this paper is also valid and feasible.
文摘To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(82305090)Shanghai Municipal Health Commission(20234Y0168)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1703301)。
文摘Objective To explore the feasibility of constructing a lung cancer early-warning risk model based on facial image features,providing novel insights into the early screening of lung cancer.Methods This study included patients with pulmonary nodules diagnosed at the Physical Examination Center of Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from November 1,2019 to December 31,2024,as well as patients with lung cancer diagnosed in the Oncology Departments of Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine and Longhua Hospital during the same period.The facial image information of patients with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer was collected using the TFDA-1 tongue and facial diagnosis instrument,and the facial diagnosis features were extracted from it by deep learning technology.Statistical analysis was conducted on the objective facial diagnosis characteristics of the two groups of participants to explore the differences in their facial image characteristics,and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression was used to screen the characteristic variables.Based on the screened feature variables,four machine learning methods:random forest,logistic regression,support vector machine(SVM),and gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)were used to establish lung cancer classification models independently.Meanwhile,the model performance was evaluated by indicators such as sensitivity,specificity,F1 score,precision,accuracy,the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),and the area under the precision-recall curve(AP).Results A total of 1275 patients with pulmonary nodules and 1623 patients with lung cancer were included in this study.After propensity score matching(PSM)to adjust for gender and age,535 patients were finally included in the pulmonary nodule group and the lung cancer group,respectively.There were significant differences in multiple color space metrics(such as R,G,B,V,L,a,b,Cr,H,Y,and Cb)and texture metrics[such as gray-levcl co-occurrence matrix(GLCM)-contrast(CON)and GLCM-inverse different moment(IDM)]between the two groups of individuals with pulmonary nodules and lung cancer(P<0.05).To construct a classification model,LASSO regression was used to select 63 key features from the initial 136 facial features.Based on this feature set,the SVM model demonstrated the best performance after 10-fold stratified cross-validation.The model achieved an average AUC of 0.8729 and average accuracy of 0.7990 on the internal test set.Further validation on an independent test set confirmed the model’s robust performance(AUC=0.8233,accuracy=0.7290),indicating its good generalization ability.Feature importance analysis demonstrated that color space indicators and the whole/lip Cr components(including color-B-0,wholecolor-Cr,and lipcolor-Cr)were the core factors in the model’s classification decisions,while texture indicators[GLCM-angular second moment(ASM)_2,GLCM-IDM_1,GLCM-CON_1,GLCM-entropy(ENT)_2]played an important auxiliary role.Conclusion The facial image features of patients with lung cancer and pulmonary nodules show significant differences in color and texture characteristics in multiple areas.The various models constructed based on facial image features all demonstrate good performance,indicating that facial image features can serve as potential biomarkers for lung cancer risk prediction,providing a non-invasive and feasible new approach for early lung cancer screening.
基金Project 70533050 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/I model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority.
文摘Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.
基金funded by the Field Station Foundation of CAS,Lancang River Conservation Fund Project of SHANSHUI Conservation Center,the SEE Noah’s Ark Project of Beijing Entrepreneurs’Environmental Protection Foundation,the 14th Five-Year Plan of Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(E3ZKFF9B01)the High-End Foreign Expert Recruitment Plan,Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(E3YN105B01)the Yunnan Provincial Foreign Expert Project(202505AO120035).
文摘Human-elephant conflict(HEC)poses a major socio-ecological challenge across elephant range states.Since 2015,the National Forest Ecosystem Research Station of China based in Xishuangbanna has developed the Elephant Early-warning System(EEWS),a novel approach that has demonstrably reduced the risk of HEC incidents-particularly those involving direct encounters between people and elephants.By dynamically maintaining safety buffers,this system safeguards endangered elephants while mitigating human safety risks during livelihood activities and ensuring uninterrupted elephant movement.Building upon the C4ISR framework(Command,Control,Communications,Computers,Intelligence,Surveillance,and Reconnaissance),EEWS integrates key technological and institutional innovations-including the widespread adoption of mobile internet,deployment of camera traps,use of drones,and cross-sectoral governance reforms.The EEWS’s conceptual framework and technical architecture have been already recognized by local government and are now being scaled up from Xishuangbanna to the entire Asian elephant range in China,establishing a replicable“China model”for achieving harmonious human-elephant coexistence.This study reviews the conceptual foundations,development,and field implementation of EEWS,and offers recommendations to guide future refinement and broader application.
文摘Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261018)Universities Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Data Mining in Guizhou Province(2023013)。
文摘In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
文摘Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor.
基金supported by the CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program and Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Research Program(2019QZKK0708)as well as the Basic Research Program of Qinghai Province:Lithospheric Geomagnetic Field of the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau and the Relationship with Strong Earthquakes(2021-ZJ-969Q).
文摘The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau.
文摘Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].
基金Funded by State Railway Administration Research Project(No.2023JS007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52438002)+1 种基金Research and Development Programs for Science and Technology of China Railways Corporation(No.J2023G003)New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE。
文摘To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12272018)the National Key Basic Research Project(2022JCJQZD20600).
文摘Kinetic impact is the most practical planetary-defense technique,with momentum-transfer efficiency central to deflection design.We present a Monte Carlo photometric framework that couples ejecta sampling,dynamical evolution,and image synthesis to compare directly with HST,LICIACube,ground-based and Lucy observations of the DART impact.Decomposing ejecta into(1)a highvelocity(~1600 m/s)plume exhibiting Na/K resonance,(2)a low-velocity(~1 m/s)conical component shaped by binary gravity and solar radiation pressure,and(3)meter-scale boulders,we quantify each component’s mass and momentum.Fitting photometric decay curves and morphological evolution yields size-velocity distributions and,via scaling laws,estimates of Dimorphos’bulk density,cratering parameters,and cohesive strength that agree with dynamical constraints.Photometric ejecta modeling therefore provides a robust route to constrain momentum enhancement and target properties,improving predictive capability for kinetic-deflection missions.
文摘Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.
基金funded by the Office of the Vice-President for Research and Development of Cebu Technological University.
文摘This study demonstrates a novel integration of large language models,machine learning,and multicriteria decision-making to investigate self-moderation in small online communities,a topic under-explored compared to user behavior and platform-driven moderation on social media.The proposed methodological framework(1)utilizes large language models for social media post analysis and categorization,(2)employs k-means clustering for content characterization,and(3)incorporates the TODIM(Tomada de Decisão Interativa Multicritério)method to determine moderation strategies based on expert judgments.In general,the fully integrated framework leverages the strengths of these intelligent systems in a more systematic evaluation of large-scale decision problems.When applied in social media moderation,this approach promotes nuanced and context-sensitive self-moderation by taking into account factors such as cultural background and geographic location.The application of this framework is demonstrated within Facebook groups.Eight distinct content clusters encompassing safety,harassment,diversity,and misinformation are identified.Analysis revealed a preference for content removal across all clusters,suggesting a cautious approach towards potentially harmful content.However,the framework also highlights the use of other moderation actions,like account suspension,depending on the content category.These findings contribute to the growing body of research on self-moderation and offer valuable insights for creating safer and more inclusive online spaces within smaller communities.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42107420,U23A20157,and U1910207)Shanxi Province Science Foundation for Young Scholars(No.20210302124363).
文摘Vegetation plays an important role in the environmental transport behavior of organic pollutants,however,the different roles of crops and natural vegetation have been ignored in most previous studies.In this study,we developed the BETR-Urban-Rural-Veg model to quantitatively evaluate the influences of both natural vegetation and crops on the multimedia transport processes of Phenanthrene(PHE)and Benzo(a)pyrene(BaP)in mainland of China.The geographic distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon(PAH)emissions and concentrations were consistent,displaying higher levels in northern China while lower levels in southern China.Under seasonal simulations,for both natural vegetation and crops,PAH concentrations in winter and spring were 1.5 to 27-fold higher than in summer and autumn,especially for PHE.Owing to the higher leaf area index(LAI)of natural vegetation and harvesting of crops,the filter and sequestration effect of natural vegetation was stronger than crops,while the seasonal changes of PAH concentrations in crops were more significant than natural vegetation.Temperature,precipitation rates and LAI might have important influences on seasonal concentrations and overall persistence of PAHs.PHE was more sensitive to the impacts of seasonal environmental parameters.Under different landscape scenarios,average annual PAH concentrations in natural vegetation were always a little higher than those in crops,and the overall persistence of BaP was greatly affected increasing by 15.15%-16.47%.This improved model provides a useful tool for environmental management.The results of this study are expected to support land use plans and decision-making in China's mainland.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
