In the paper, we use the Central Moment Tensor (CMT) solution acquired by Harvard Univ. for the earthquakes occurred in Kurile Islands to analyze the consistent focal mechanism in the area and propose the idea of maki...In the paper, we use the Central Moment Tensor (CMT) solution acquired by Harvard Univ. for the earthquakes occurred in Kurile Islands to analyze the consistent focal mechanism in the area and propose the idea of making earthquake prediction based on the consistent parameter a of focal mechanism and stress field. The results from the study indicate that before Mw greater than or equal 7.5 earthquakes, the consistent parameter a decreases, which starts about 10-110 days and ends about 30-2 days before the great earthquakes. Although the phenomenon is not totally the same for individual earthquake, the difference is not large. Certainly, the phenomenon should be tested by time for its reliability. However, it should not be random that the focal mechanism of Mw greater than or equal 5.3 earthquakes are consistent successively with the stress field in an area of several hundreds kilometers in length. It should be a phenomenon of predictive significance. When the accumulated earthquake examples are sufficient, uniform judgment criteria and prediction principles can be stipulated then.展开更多
We use the Centroid Moment Tensor （CMT） solution of the earthquakes occurred in Chile subduction to analyze the characteristics of focal mechanisms. We define the,angle between P, B, and T axes of focal mechanisms a...We use the Centroid Moment Tensor （CMT） solution of the earthquakes occurred in Chile subduction to analyze the characteristics of focal mechanisms. We define the,angle between P, B, and T axes of focal mechanisms and three stress axes of tectonic stress field as the consistency parameter, to research the dynamic changes of focal mechanism pattern in earthquake preparation area before the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake. The result shows that the consistency parameter decreases before the earthquake, and the area of the lower consistent parameter visually coincides with the distribution of aftershocks. This phenomenon is similar to the Load-Unload Response Ratio （LURR） decreases prior to the occurrence of macro-fracture happened in the acoustic emission experiments involving large rock specimens under tri-axial stress.展开更多
基金Key Project of State Science and Technology during the tenth Five-year Plan (2001BA601B01-01-05).
文摘In the paper, we use the Central Moment Tensor (CMT) solution acquired by Harvard Univ. for the earthquakes occurred in Kurile Islands to analyze the consistent focal mechanism in the area and propose the idea of making earthquake prediction based on the consistent parameter a of focal mechanism and stress field. The results from the study indicate that before Mw greater than or equal 7.5 earthquakes, the consistent parameter a decreases, which starts about 10-110 days and ends about 30-2 days before the great earthquakes. Although the phenomenon is not totally the same for individual earthquake, the difference is not large. Certainly, the phenomenon should be tested by time for its reliability. However, it should not be random that the focal mechanism of Mw greater than or equal 5.3 earthquakes are consistent successively with the stress field in an area of several hundreds kilometers in length. It should be a phenomenon of predictive significance. When the accumulated earthquake examples are sufficient, uniform judgment criteria and prediction principles can be stipulated then.
基金supported by Public Utility Research Project (200808053)Research Foundation of Science and Technology Plan Project in Hebei Province (12276903D)
文摘We use the Centroid Moment Tensor （CMT） solution of the earthquakes occurred in Chile subduction to analyze the characteristics of focal mechanisms. We define the,angle between P, B, and T axes of focal mechanisms and three stress axes of tectonic stress field as the consistency parameter, to research the dynamic changes of focal mechanism pattern in earthquake preparation area before the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake. The result shows that the consistency parameter decreases before the earthquake, and the area of the lower consistent parameter visually coincides with the distribution of aftershocks. This phenomenon is similar to the Load-Unload Response Ratio （LURR） decreases prior to the occurrence of macro-fracture happened in the acoustic emission experiments involving large rock specimens under tri-axial stress.
