Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers(PEMWE)are efficient and sustainable hydrogen production devices.This article analyzes their static and dynamic electrical models integrated with degradation mechanisms.Stat...Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers(PEMWE)are efficient and sustainable hydrogen production devices.This article analyzes their static and dynamic electrical models integrated with degradation mechanisms.Static models reveal steady-state behavior,while dynamic models capture transient responses to input variations.The developed modeling approach combines the activation and diffusion phenomena,resulting in a novel PEMWE model that closely reflects real-world conditions and enables fast simulations.The electrical model is integrated with the aging model through two key ratios,surface degradation ratio and membrane degradation ratio,which characterize degradation mechanisms affecting electrode and membrane performance.The linear model using second-order Taylor approximation enables the development of a diagnosis approach that can contribute to estimating the remaining useful life of PEMWEs.By associating aging models with electrical models through the proposed ratios,a deeper understanding is achieved regarding how degra-dation phenomena evolve and influence electrolyzer efficiency and durability.The integrated framework enables predictive maintenance strategies,making it valuable for industrial hydrogen production applications.展开更多
Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with th...Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement.展开更多
The rapid expansion of offshore wind energy necessitates robust and cost-effective electrical collector system(ECS)designs that prioritize lifetime operational reliability.Traditional optimization approaches often sim...The rapid expansion of offshore wind energy necessitates robust and cost-effective electrical collector system(ECS)designs that prioritize lifetime operational reliability.Traditional optimization approaches often simplify reliability considerations or fail to holistically integrate them with economic and technical constraints.This paper introduces a novel,two-stage optimization framework for offshore wind farm(OWF)ECS planning that systematically incorporates reliability.The first stage employs Mixed-Integer Linear Programming(MILP)to determine an optimal radial network topology,considering linearized reliability approximations and geographical constraints.The second stage enhances this design by strategically placing tie-lines using a Mixed-Integer Quadratically Constrained Program(MIQCP).This stage leverages a dynamic-aware adaptation of Multi-Source Multi-Terminal Network Reliability(MSMT-NR)assessment,with its inherent nonlinear equations successfully transformed into a solvable MIQCP form for loopy networks.A benchmark case study demonstrates the framework’s efficacy,illustrating how increasing the emphasis on reliability leads to more distributed and interconnected network topologies,effectively balancing investment costs against enhanced system resilience.展开更多
In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lif...In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.展开更多
Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute s...Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.展开更多
Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synt...Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.展开更多
Multirotor has been applied to many military and civilian mission scenarios. From the perspective of reliability, it is difficult to ensure that multirotors do not generate hardware and software failures or performanc...Multirotor has been applied to many military and civilian mission scenarios. From the perspective of reliability, it is difficult to ensure that multirotors do not generate hardware and software failures or performance anomalies during the flight process. These failures and anomalies may result in mission interruptions, crashes, and even threats to the lives and property of human beings.Thus, the study of flight reliability problems of multirotors is conductive to the development of the drone industry and has theoretical significance and engineering value. This paper proposes a reliable flight performance assessment method of multirotors based on an Interacting Multiple Model Particle Filter(IMMPF) algorithm and health degree as the performance indicator. First, the multirotor is modeled by the Stochastic Hybrid System(SHS) model, and the problem of reliable flight performance assessment is formulated. In order to solve the problem, the IMMPF algorithm is presented to estimate the real-time probability distribution of hybrid state of the established SHS-based multirotor model, since it can decrease estimation errors compared with the standard interacting multiple model algorithm based on extended Kalman filter. Then, the reliable flight performance is assessed with health degree based on the estimation result. Finally, a case study of a multirotor suffering from sensor anomalies is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR...The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.展开更多
As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenanc...As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.展开更多
The conventional stress-strength interference（SSI） model is a basic model for reliability analysis of mechanical components. In this model, the component reliability is defined as the probability of the strength bei...The conventional stress-strength interference（SSI） model is a basic model for reliability analysis of mechanical components. In this model, the component reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being larger than the stress, where the component stress is generally represented by a single random variable（RV）. But for a component under multi-operating conditions, its reliability can not be calculated directly by using the SSI model. The problem arises from that the stress on a component under multi-operating conditions can not be described by a single RV properly. Current research concerning the SSI model mainly focuses on the calculation of the static or dynamic reliability of the component under single operation condition. To evaluate the component reliability under multi-operating conditions, this paper uses multiple discrete RVs based on the actual stress range of the component firstly. These discrete RVs have identical possible values and different corresponding probability value, which are used to represent the multi-operating conditions of the component. Then the component reliability under each operating condition is calculated, respectively, by employing the discrete SSI model and the universal generating function technique, and from this the discrete SSI model under multi-operating conditions is proposed. Finally the proposed model is applied to evaluate the reliability of a transmission component of the decelerator installed in an aeroengine. The reliability of this component during taking-off, cruising and landing phases of an aircraft are calculated, respectively. With this model, a basic method for reliability analysis of the component under complex load condition is provided, and the application range of the conventional SSI model is extended.展开更多
Existing Physics-of-Failure-based(PoF-based)system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption,which overlooks the dependency among the compo-nents.In this paper,a new type of dependency...Existing Physics-of-Failure-based(PoF-based)system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption,which overlooks the dependency among the compo-nents.In this paper,a new type of dependency,referred to as failure collaboration,is introduced and considered in reliability predictions.A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration.Based on the developed model,the Bisection-based Reliability Analysis Method(BRAM)is exploited to calculate the system reliability.The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator(HSA).The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.展开更多
The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely consid...The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely considered when reliabil?ity allocation is conducted. In this paper, drawbacks of reliability model based on failure independence assumption are illustrated, after which, reliability model of CNC lathes considering failure correlation of subsystems is established based on Copula theory, which is an improvement of traditional reliability model of series systems. As the failure time of CNC lathes often obeys Weibull or exponential distribution, Gumbel Copula is selected to build correlation model. After that, a reliability allocation method considering failure correlation is analyzed based on the model established before. Reliability goal is set first and then failure rates are allocated to subsystems according to the allocation vector through solving the correlation model. Reliability allocation is conducted for t = 1. A real case of a CNC lathe and a numerical case are presented together to illustrate the advantages of the reliability model established consider?ing failure correlation and the corresponding allocation method. It shows that the model accords to facts and real working condition more, and failure rates allocated to all the subsystems are increased to some extent. This research proposes a reliability allocation method which takes failure correlation among subsystems of CNC lathes into consid?eration, and costs for design and manufacture could be decreased.展开更多
Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient...Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on oper- ating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are ob- tained by using operational reliability evaluation.展开更多
Up to now,outlier detection and reliability theory are generallybased on the regular Gauss-Markov models,in which the covariance matrix of ob-servations is positively definite.For the adjustment models with singular c...Up to now,outlier detection and reliability theory are generallybased on the regular Gauss-Markov models,in which the covariance matrix of ob-servations is positively definite.For the adjustment models with singular covari-ance matrix,the statistics for outlier detection are derived by the authors.Thecorresponding reliability theory is developed.And the application of the theory isdemonstrated with a practical example.展开更多
As one of the most important indexes to evaluate the quality of software, software reliability experiences an increasing development in recent years. We investigate a software reliability growth model(SRGM). The appli...As one of the most important indexes to evaluate the quality of software, software reliability experiences an increasing development in recent years. We investigate a software reliability growth model(SRGM). The application of this model is to predict the occurrence of the software faults based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP). Unlike the independent assumptions in other models, we consider fault dependency. The testing faults are divided into three classes in this model: leading faults, first-step dependent faults and second-step dependent faults. The leading faults occurring independently follow an NHPP, while the first-step dependent faults only become detectable after the related leading faults are detected. The second-step dependent faults can only be detected after the related first-step dependent faults are detected. Then, the combined model is built on the basis of the three sub-processes. Finally, an illustration based on real dataset is presented to verify the proposed model.展开更多
Fault tree analysis is an effective method for predicting the reliability of a system. It gives a pictorial representation and logical framework for analyzing the reliability. Also, it has been used for a long time as...Fault tree analysis is an effective method for predicting the reliability of a system. It gives a pictorial representation and logical framework for analyzing the reliability. Also, it has been used for a long time as an effective method for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the failure modes of critical systems. In this paper, we propose a new general coverage model （GCM） based on hardware independent faults. Using this model, an effective software tool can be constructed to detect, locate and recover fault from the faulty system. This model can be applied to identify the key component that can cause the failure of the system using failure mode effect analysis （FMEA）.展开更多
Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped...Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped varying trend of TE increasing rate more accurately, first, two S-shaped testing-effort functions（TEFs）, i.e.,delayed S-shaped TEF（DS-TEF） and inflected S-shaped TEF（IS-TEF）, are proposed. Then these two TEFs are incorporated into various types（exponential-type, delayed S-shaped and inflected S-shaped） of non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP）SRGMs with two forms of ID respectively for obtaining a series of new NHPP SRGMs which consider S-shaped TEFs as well as ID. Finally these new SRGMs and several comparison NHPP SRGMs are applied into four real failure data-sets respectively for investigating the fitting and prediction power of these new SRGMs.The experimental results show that：（i） the proposed IS-TEF is more suitable and flexible for describing the consumption of TE than the previous TEFs;（ii） incorporating TEFs into the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM may be more effective and appropriate compared with the exponential-type and the delayed S-shaped NHPP SRGMs;（iii） the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM considering both IS-TEF and ID yields the most accurate fitting and prediction results than the other comparison NHPP SRGMs.展开更多
The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems.Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage,and might lead to system fa...The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems.Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage,and might lead to system failure and other relevant consequences.In this study,the reliability estimation for mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty is proposed.The friction torque and leakage rate are two degradation performance indicators of mechanical seals that can be described by the Wiener process,Gamma process,and inverse Gaussian process.The dependence between the two indicators can be described by different copula functions.Then the model uncertainty is considered in the reliability estimation using the Bayesian Model Average(BMA)method,while the unknown parameters in the model are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.A numerical simulation study and fatigue crack study are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the BMA method to capture model uncertainty.A degradation test of mechanical seals is conducted to verify the proposed model.The optimal stochastic process models for two performance indicators and copula function are determined based on the degradation data.The results show the necessity of using the BMA method in degradation modeling.展开更多
On the basis of each gear's failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynam...On the basis of each gear's failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear's life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system's joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.展开更多
In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connectio...In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.展开更多
文摘Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers(PEMWE)are efficient and sustainable hydrogen production devices.This article analyzes their static and dynamic electrical models integrated with degradation mechanisms.Static models reveal steady-state behavior,while dynamic models capture transient responses to input variations.The developed modeling approach combines the activation and diffusion phenomena,resulting in a novel PEMWE model that closely reflects real-world conditions and enables fast simulations.The electrical model is integrated with the aging model through two key ratios,surface degradation ratio and membrane degradation ratio,which characterize degradation mechanisms affecting electrode and membrane performance.The linear model using second-order Taylor approximation enables the development of a diagnosis approach that can contribute to estimating the remaining useful life of PEMWEs.By associating aging models with electrical models through the proposed ratios,a deeper understanding is achieved regarding how degra-dation phenomena evolve and influence electrolyzer efficiency and durability.The integrated framework enables predictive maintenance strategies,making it valuable for industrial hydrogen production applications.
基金supported by the steady supports scientific research of Key Laboratory of Defense Science and Technology,China(No.WDZC20220105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51775020,62073009,U20B2002)the Science Challenge Project,China(No.TZ2018007)。
文摘Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of China South Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Grant Nos.036000KK52222044,GDKJXM20222430。
文摘The rapid expansion of offshore wind energy necessitates robust and cost-effective electrical collector system(ECS)designs that prioritize lifetime operational reliability.Traditional optimization approaches often simplify reliability considerations or fail to holistically integrate them with economic and technical constraints.This paper introduces a novel,two-stage optimization framework for offshore wind farm(OWF)ECS planning that systematically incorporates reliability.The first stage employs Mixed-Integer Linear Programming(MILP)to determine an optimal radial network topology,considering linearized reliability approximations and geographical constraints.The second stage enhances this design by strategically placing tie-lines using a Mixed-Integer Quadratically Constrained Program(MIQCP).This stage leverages a dynamic-aware adaptation of Multi-Source Multi-Terminal Network Reliability(MSMT-NR)assessment,with its inherent nonlinear equations successfully transformed into a solvable MIQCP form for loopy networks.A benchmark case study demonstrates the framework’s efficacy,illustrating how increasing the emphasis on reliability leads to more distributed and interconnected network topologies,effectively balancing investment costs against enhanced system resilience.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50405021)
文摘In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.
文摘Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.
文摘Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.
基金co-supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 4194074)the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2017YFC1600605)+1 种基金the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. ZR2018BF016)the Beijing Municipal Education Commission Research Program-General Project of China (No. KM201910011011)
文摘Multirotor has been applied to many military and civilian mission scenarios. From the perspective of reliability, it is difficult to ensure that multirotors do not generate hardware and software failures or performance anomalies during the flight process. These failures and anomalies may result in mission interruptions, crashes, and even threats to the lives and property of human beings.Thus, the study of flight reliability problems of multirotors is conductive to the development of the drone industry and has theoretical significance and engineering value. This paper proposes a reliable flight performance assessment method of multirotors based on an Interacting Multiple Model Particle Filter(IMMPF) algorithm and health degree as the performance indicator. First, the multirotor is modeled by the Stochastic Hybrid System(SHS) model, and the problem of reliable flight performance assessment is formulated. In order to solve the problem, the IMMPF algorithm is presented to estimate the real-time probability distribution of hybrid state of the established SHS-based multirotor model, since it can decrease estimation errors compared with the standard interacting multiple model algorithm based on extended Kalman filter. Then, the reliable flight performance is assessed with health degree based on the estimation result. Finally, a case study of a multirotor suffering from sensor anomalies is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.
基金Project(61174115)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2013001)supported by Scientific Research Program of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.
基金supported by National Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant No. 2007AA04Z403)Sichuan Provincial Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No. 07GG012- 002)+1 种基金Gansu Provincial Basal Research Fund of the Higher Education Institutions of China (Grant No. GCJ 2009019)Research Fund of Lanzhou University of Technology of China(Grant No. BS02200903)
文摘The conventional stress-strength interference（SSI） model is a basic model for reliability analysis of mechanical components. In this model, the component reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being larger than the stress, where the component stress is generally represented by a single random variable（RV）. But for a component under multi-operating conditions, its reliability can not be calculated directly by using the SSI model. The problem arises from that the stress on a component under multi-operating conditions can not be described by a single RV properly. Current research concerning the SSI model mainly focuses on the calculation of the static or dynamic reliability of the component under single operation condition. To evaluate the component reliability under multi-operating conditions, this paper uses multiple discrete RVs based on the actual stress range of the component firstly. These discrete RVs have identical possible values and different corresponding probability value, which are used to represent the multi-operating conditions of the component. Then the component reliability under each operating condition is calculated, respectively, by employing the discrete SSI model and the universal generating function technique, and from this the discrete SSI model under multi-operating conditions is proposed. Finally the proposed model is applied to evaluate the reliability of a transmission component of the decelerator installed in an aeroengine. The reliability of this component during taking-off, cruising and landing phases of an aircraft are calculated, respectively. With this model, a basic method for reliability analysis of the component under complex load condition is provided, and the application range of the conventional SSI model is extended.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61573043)supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51675025)
文摘Existing Physics-of-Failure-based(PoF-based)system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption,which overlooks the dependency among the compo-nents.In this paper,a new type of dependency,referred to as failure collaboration,is introduced and considered in reliability predictions.A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration.Based on the developed model,the Bisection-based Reliability Analysis Method(BRAM)is exploited to calculate the system reliability.The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator(HSA).The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51135003,U1234208)National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2014CB046303)+3 种基金High-class CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment of Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects(Grant No.2013ZX04011-011)National Key Laboratory of Mechanical System and Vibration Project(Grant No.MSV201402)Scientific Research Business Fund of Central Colleges and Universities(Grant No.N150304006)Excellent Talents Support Program for Colleges and Universities in Liaoning Province of China(Grant No.LJQ2014030)
文摘The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely considered when reliabil?ity allocation is conducted. In this paper, drawbacks of reliability model based on failure independence assumption are illustrated, after which, reliability model of CNC lathes considering failure correlation of subsystems is established based on Copula theory, which is an improvement of traditional reliability model of series systems. As the failure time of CNC lathes often obeys Weibull or exponential distribution, Gumbel Copula is selected to build correlation model. After that, a reliability allocation method considering failure correlation is analyzed based on the model established before. Reliability goal is set first and then failure rates are allocated to subsystems according to the allocation vector through solving the correlation model. Reliability allocation is conducted for t = 1. A real case of a CNC lathe and a numerical case are presented together to illustrate the advantages of the reliability model established consider?ing failure correlation and the corresponding allocation method. It shows that the model accords to facts and real working condition more, and failure rates allocated to all the subsystems are increased to some extent. This research proposes a reliability allocation method which takes failure correlation among subsystems of CNC lathes into consid?eration, and costs for design and manufacture could be decreased.
基金Project (No. 2004CB217901) supported by the National Basic Re-search Program (973) of China
文摘Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on oper- ating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are ob- tained by using operational reliability evaluation.
文摘Up to now,outlier detection and reliability theory are generallybased on the regular Gauss-Markov models,in which the covariance matrix of ob-servations is positively definite.For the adjustment models with singular covari-ance matrix,the statistics for outlier detection are derived by the authors.Thecorresponding reliability theory is developed.And the application of the theory isdemonstrated with a practical example.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71671016)the School Fund of Beijing Information Science&Technology University(No.1935004)
文摘As one of the most important indexes to evaluate the quality of software, software reliability experiences an increasing development in recent years. We investigate a software reliability growth model(SRGM). The application of this model is to predict the occurrence of the software faults based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP). Unlike the independent assumptions in other models, we consider fault dependency. The testing faults are divided into three classes in this model: leading faults, first-step dependent faults and second-step dependent faults. The leading faults occurring independently follow an NHPP, while the first-step dependent faults only become detectable after the related leading faults are detected. The second-step dependent faults can only be detected after the related first-step dependent faults are detected. Then, the combined model is built on the basis of the three sub-processes. Finally, an illustration based on real dataset is presented to verify the proposed model.
文摘Fault tree analysis is an effective method for predicting the reliability of a system. It gives a pictorial representation and logical framework for analyzing the reliability. Also, it has been used for a long time as an effective method for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the failure modes of critical systems. In this paper, we propose a new general coverage model （GCM） based on hardware independent faults. Using this model, an effective software tool can be constructed to detect, locate and recover fault from the faulty system. This model can be applied to identify the key component that can cause the failure of the system using failure mode effect analysis （FMEA）.
基金supported by the Pre-research Foundation of CPLA General Equipment Department
文摘Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped varying trend of TE increasing rate more accurately, first, two S-shaped testing-effort functions（TEFs）, i.e.,delayed S-shaped TEF（DS-TEF） and inflected S-shaped TEF（IS-TEF）, are proposed. Then these two TEFs are incorporated into various types（exponential-type, delayed S-shaped and inflected S-shaped） of non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP）SRGMs with two forms of ID respectively for obtaining a series of new NHPP SRGMs which consider S-shaped TEFs as well as ID. Finally these new SRGMs and several comparison NHPP SRGMs are applied into four real failure data-sets respectively for investigating the fitting and prediction power of these new SRGMs.The experimental results show that：（i） the proposed IS-TEF is more suitable and flexible for describing the consumption of TE than the previous TEFs;（ii） incorporating TEFs into the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM may be more effective and appropriate compared with the exponential-type and the delayed S-shaped NHPP SRGMs;（iii） the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM considering both IS-TEF and ID yields the most accurate fitting and prediction results than the other comparison NHPP SRGMs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51875015,51620105010)。
文摘The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems.Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage,and might lead to system failure and other relevant consequences.In this study,the reliability estimation for mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty is proposed.The friction torque and leakage rate are two degradation performance indicators of mechanical seals that can be described by the Wiener process,Gamma process,and inverse Gaussian process.The dependence between the two indicators can be described by different copula functions.Then the model uncertainty is considered in the reliability estimation using the Bayesian Model Average(BMA)method,while the unknown parameters in the model are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.A numerical simulation study and fatigue crack study are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the BMA method to capture model uncertainty.A degradation test of mechanical seals is conducted to verify the proposed model.The optimal stochastic process models for two performance indicators and copula function are determined based on the degradation data.The results show the necessity of using the BMA method in degradation modeling.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51265025)
文摘On the basis of each gear's failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear's life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system's joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Plan(Major Project of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan,Grant No.2006BAB04A13)
文摘In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.
