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基于ARIMA模型的全球航空碳排放量预测
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作者 王琦 田利军 《中外能源》 2026年第2期8-16,共9页
为应对全球气候变暖背景下航空业碳排放管控需求,把握未来全球航空碳排放趋势,采用自回归差分移动平均模型(ARIMA),对全球航空业未来二氧化碳排放进行建模和预测。基于1940~2024年全球航空碳排放量时间序列数据,采用指数平滑法修复2020~... 为应对全球气候变暖背景下航空业碳排放管控需求,把握未来全球航空碳排放趋势,采用自回归差分移动平均模型(ARIMA),对全球航空业未来二氧化碳排放进行建模和预测。基于1940~2024年全球航空碳排放量时间序列数据,采用指数平滑法修复2020~2022年疫情异常值,构建ARIMA模型并经平稳性与残差检验,确定ARIMA(1,2,1)为最优预测模型。2025~2050年排放趋势多情景预测结果显示:基准情景下2050年排放量达1390.58×10^(6)t,不符合温控目标要求;政策驱动情景在2035年左右达峰,但受SAF产能等限制减排不足;净零情景2050年排放量为278.12×10^(6)t,契合温控要求,但需突破零碳技术商业化和碳移除技术成本瓶颈。未来全球航空业应努力构建跨国协同的政策框架,强化零碳技术研发与产业化支持,完善SAF产业链保障机制,最终实现净零排放目标。 展开更多
关键词 航空碳排放 arima模型 多情景预测 零碳技术 碳移除 净零排放
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武咸城际铁路客流时空分布特征与ARIMA客流预测
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作者 王芹芹 《铁道运营技术》 2026年第1期22-26,共5页
客流分析是合理设计列车开行方案和列车运行图的基础与依据。科学合理的列车开行方案与运行图对于提升旅客服务水平,降低运营部门运营成本具有重要意义。以武咸城际铁路为研究对象,旨在系统揭示其客流分布与变化规律,并为运营优化提供... 客流分析是合理设计列车开行方案和列车运行图的基础与依据。科学合理的列车开行方案与运行图对于提升旅客服务水平,降低运营部门运营成本具有重要意义。以武咸城际铁路为研究对象,旨在系统揭示其客流分布与变化规律,并为运营优化提供预测支持。通过分析其开通运营以来的旅客发送量、车站客流分布及列车客座率等指标,重点对比分析了2023年7月运行图调整前后的客流变化。从时间(工作日、周末、节假日)和空间(站间客流OD分布)两个维度梳理了客流分布特征。在此基础上,利用2023年武汉东站(武咸方向)日均客流数据,构建ARIMA时间序列预测模型,并对2024年1月至6月客流进行了短期预测。通过将预测值与实际值对比验证,结果显示模型预测平均相对误差为7%,表明ARIMA模型在城际铁路短期客流预测中具有较高的可靠性,能为列车开行方案优化与运营策略调整提供数据支撑和科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 城际铁路 客流预测 客流特征 arima模型
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基于ARIMA模型的湖北省山地区建设项目耕地占用比例预测研究
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作者 李荆荆 邓惠芬 +3 位作者 李彦丹 祝君君 黄凡 匡颖 《湖北大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026年第2期153-165,共13页
湖北省山地区面积占全省土地总面积的56%,山地区的耕地面积仅占全省耕地总面积的12%,耕地资源在山地区尤为稀缺,然而,诸多建设项目由于选址的特殊性,不可避免地面临耕地占用情形。因此,为实现生态优先战略下的土地资源优化配置,亟需探... 湖北省山地区面积占全省土地总面积的56%,山地区的耕地面积仅占全省耕地总面积的12%,耕地资源在山地区尤为稀缺,然而,诸多建设项目由于选址的特殊性,不可避免地面临耕地占用情形。因此,为实现生态优先战略下的土地资源优化配置,亟需探明山地区建设项目占用耕地比例的合理阈值,以达到平衡该区域耕地资源保护和建设项目节约集约用地的目标。基于湖北省2013—2022年交通、能源、水利建设项目以及“十四五”规划建设项目数据,构建自回归移动平均数(ARIMA)时间序列模型来预测建设项目占用耕地比例;结合预测值、历史均值及置信区间上限设定动态阈值;通过“项目通过率—耕地节约率”综合得分来量化评估管控效能。研究结果表明,交通项目未来趋势呈周期性波动,推荐采用预测均值阈值(35.44%),并建议阈值压缩至40%以下;能源项目趋势性上升,推荐采用预测均值阈值(29.67%)作为核心管控基准;水利项目预测值稳定在低位,优先推荐预测均值阈值(5.58%),对新增项目建议上限不超过20%。在耕地保护优先情景下,交通、能源和水利三类项目阈值上限应分别控制在40%、35%、10%;经济发展优先情景下可放宽至45%、38%、15%;平衡发展情景下则建议维持动态阈值策略。本研究构建的建设项目与耕地占用的“预测—校准—反馈”动态框架,希冀为长江经济带生态敏感区内耕地保护目标提供政策依据。 展开更多
关键词 山地建设项目 耕地占用 动态阈值 耕地节约率 arima模型
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SP-RF-ARIMA:A sparse random forest and ARIMA hybrid model for electric load forecasting
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作者 Kamran Hassanpouri Baesmat Farhad Shokoohi Zeinab Farrokhi 《Global Energy Interconnection》 2025年第3期486-496,共11页
Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environment... Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method. 展开更多
关键词 optimizing production capacityimproving operational efficiencyand sparse random forest hybrid model electric load forecasting accurate electric load forecasting elf renewable energy integration arima feature selection
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基于ARIMA模型的浙江省农产品物流需求分析研究
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作者 余子豪 周志丹 《物流科技》 2026年第3期21-25,共5页
随着经济的不断增长,人们对于健康绿色农产品的需求也在不断增加,农产品物流需求预测对于保障区域农产品供应链的稳定性和效率至关重要。文章旨在通过分析浙江省近40年的农产品产量和产值数据,利用ARIMA模型预测未来10年的产量和产值,... 随着经济的不断增长,人们对于健康绿色农产品的需求也在不断增加,农产品物流需求预测对于保障区域农产品供应链的稳定性和效率至关重要。文章旨在通过分析浙江省近40年的农产品产量和产值数据,利用ARIMA模型预测未来10年的产量和产值,并通过计算物流运输量、冷链物流需求、物流服务价值等指标,分析浙江省农产品未来的物流需求,对于提升浙江省农产品物流系统规模以及促进浙江省冷链物流发展具有重要的参考。 展开更多
关键词 arima模型 农产品物流需求 产量预测 产值预测
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Agri-Eval:Multi-level Large Language Model Valuation Benchmark for Agriculture
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作者 WANG Yaojun GE Mingliang +2 位作者 XU Guowei ZHANG Qiyu BIE Yuhui 《农业机械学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期290-299,共10页
Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLM... Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture. 展开更多
关键词 large language models assessment systems agricultural knowledge agricultural datasets
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Ecological Dynamics of a Logistic Population Model with Impulsive Age-selective Harvesting
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作者 DAI Xiangjun JIAO Jianjun 《应用数学》 北大核心 2026年第1期72-79,共8页
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy... In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting. 展开更多
关键词 The logistic population model Selective harvesting Asymptotic stability EXTINCTION
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Modeling of Precipitation over Africa:Progress,Challenges,and Prospects
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作者 A.A.AKINSANOLA C.N.WENHAJI +21 位作者 R.BARIMALALA P.-A.MONERIE R.D.DIXON A.T.TAMOFFO M.O.ADENIYI V.ONGOMA I.DIALLO M.GUDOSHAVA C.M.WAINWRIGHT R.JAMES K.C.SILVERIO A.FAYE S.S.NANGOMBE M.W.POKAM D.A.VONDOU N.C.G.HART I.PINTO M.KILAVI S.HAGOS E.N.RAJAGOPAL R.K.KOLLI S.JOSEPH 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2026年第1期59-86,共28页
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha... In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain. 展开更多
关键词 RAINFALL MONSOON climate modeling CORDEX CMIP6 convection-permitting models
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Design optimization and FEA of B-6 and B-7 levels ballistics armor:A modelling approach
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作者 Muhammad Naveed CHU Jinkui +1 位作者 Atif Ur Rehman Arsalan Hyder 《大连理工大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期66-77,共12页
Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is empl... Utilizing finite element analysis,the ballistic protection provided by a combination of perforated D-shaped and base armor plates,collectively referred to as radiator armor,is evaluated.ANSYS Explicit Dynamics is employed to simulate the ballistic impact of 7.62 mm armor-piercing projectiles on Aluminum AA5083-H116 and Steel Secure 500 armors,focusing on the evaluation of material deformation and penetration resistance at varying impact points.While the D-shaped armor plate is penetrated by the armor-piercing projectiles,the combination of the perforated D-shaped and base armor plates successfully halts penetration.A numerical model based on the finite element method is developed using software such as SolidWorks and ANSYS to analyze the interaction between radiator armor and bullet.The perforated design of radiator armor is to maintain airflow for radiator function,with hole sizes smaller than the bullet core diameter to protect radiator assemblies.Predictions are made regarding the brittle fracture resulting from the projectile core′s bending due to asymmetric impact,and the resulting fragments failed to penetrate the perforated base armor plate.Craters are formed on the surface of the perforated D-shaped armor plate due to the impact of projectile fragments.The numerical model accurately predicts hole growth and projectile penetration upon impact with the armor,demonstrating effective protection of the radiator assemblies by the radiator armor. 展开更多
关键词 radiator armor ballistics simulation Johnson-Cook model armor-piercing projectile perforated D-shaped armor plate
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Lithospheric magnetic variations on the Tibetan Plateau based on a 3D surface spline model,compared with strong earthquake occurrences
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作者 PengTao Zhang Jun Yang +3 位作者 LiLi Feng Xia Li YuHong Zhao YingFeng Ji 《Earth and Planetary Physics》 2026年第1期30-43,共14页
The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-bas... The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 Tibetan Plateau magnetic variation SEISMICITY surface spline model enhanced magnetic model
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UAV-to-Ground Channel Modeling:(Quasi-)Closed-Form Channel Statistics and Manual Parameter Estimation
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作者 Zeng Linzhou Liao Xuewen +3 位作者 Xie Wenwu Ma Zhangfeng Xiong Baiping Jiang Hao 《China Communications》 2026年第1期47-66,共20页
(Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbi... (Quasi-)closed-form results for the statistical properties of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)airto-ground channels are derived for the first time using a novel spatial-vector-based method from a threedimensional(3-D)arbitrary-elevation one-cylinder model.The derived results include a closed-form expression for the space-time correlation function and some quasi-closed-form ones for the space-Doppler power spectrum density,the level crossing rate,and the average fading duration,which are shown to be the generalizations of those previously obtained from the two-dimensional(2-D)one-ring model and the 3-D low-elevation one-cylinder model for terrestrial mobile-to-mobile channels.The close agreements between the theoretical results and the simulations as well as the measurements validate the utility of the derived channel statistics.Based on the derived expressions,the impacts of some parameters on the channel characteristics are investigated in an effective,efficient,and explicable way,which leads to a general guideline on the manual parameter estimation from the measurement description. 展开更多
关键词 channel characteristics geometry-based stochastic model manual parameter estimation UAV channel modeling
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Do Higher Horizontal Resolution Models Perform Better?
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作者 Shoji KUSUNOKI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2026年第1期259-262,共4页
Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(... Climate model prediction has been improved by enhancing model resolution as well as the implementation of sophisticated physical parameterization and refinement of data assimilation systems[section 6.1 in Wang et al.(2025)].In relation to seasonal forecasting and climate projection in the East Asian summer monsoon season,proper simulation of the seasonal migration of rain bands by models is a challenging and limiting factor[section 7.1 in Wang et al.(2025)]. 展开更多
关键词 enhancing model resolution refinement data assimilation systems section climate model climate projection higher horizontal resolution seasonal forecasting simulation seasonal migration rain bands model resolution
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基于DPSIRM-TOPSIS-ARIMA模型的甘肃省水资源承载力评价与预测
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作者 高秉俊 刘飞 +2 位作者 程雯嘉 李建玲 李慧 《水利规划与设计》 2026年第1期7-11,41,共6页
为缓解甘肃省水资源短缺问题,构建以“驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理”为准则的综合评价指标体系,文章利用TOPSIS模型和ARIMA预测模型对甘肃省2009—2030年水资源承载力进行综合评价和预测。结果表明:权重占比最大的子系统为驱动力子系... 为缓解甘肃省水资源短缺问题,构建以“驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理”为准则的综合评价指标体系,文章利用TOPSIS模型和ARIMA预测模型对甘肃省2009—2030年水资源承载力进行综合评价和预测。结果表明:权重占比最大的子系统为驱动力子系统,权重占比前三的指标是生态环境用水量X17、人口自然增长率X1和城镇居民可支配收入X15;2009—2022年承载力呈波动上升趋势;预测2023—2030年承载力总体呈上升趋势,均处于弱承载水平。该研究结果可为甘肃省水资源发展提供科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 水资源承载力 DPSIRM模型 arima模型 评价与预测
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Review of machine learning tight-binding models:Route to accurate and scalable electronic simulations
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作者 Jijie Zou Zhanghao Zhouyin +1 位作者 Shishir Kumar Pandey Qiangqiang Gu 《Chinese Physics B》 2026年第1期2-12,共11页
The rapid advancement of machine learning based tight-binding Hamiltonian(MLTB)methods has opened new avenues for efficient and accurate electronic structure simulations,particularly in large-scale systems and long-ti... The rapid advancement of machine learning based tight-binding Hamiltonian(MLTB)methods has opened new avenues for efficient and accurate electronic structure simulations,particularly in large-scale systems and long-time scenarios.This review begins with a concise overview of traditional tight-binding(TB)models,including both(semi-)empirical and first-principles approaches,establishing the foundation for understanding MLTB developments.We then present a systematic classification of existing MLTB methodologies,grouped into two major categories:direct prediction of TB Hamiltonian elements and inference of empirical parameters.A comparative analysis with other ML-based electronic structure models is also provided,highlighting the advancement of MLTB approaches.Finally,we explore the emerging MLTB application ecosystem,highlighting how the integration of MLTB models with a diverse suite of post-processing tools from linear-scaling solvers to quantum transport frameworks and molecular dynamics interfaces is essential for tackling complex scientific problems across different domains.The continued advancement of this integrated paradigm promises to accelerate materials discovery and open new frontiers in the predictive simulation of complex quantum phenomena. 展开更多
关键词 machine learning tight-binding model electronic simulations
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A Predictive Model for the Elastic Modulus of High-Strength Concrete Based on Coarse Aggregate Characteristics
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作者 LI Liangshun LI Huajian +2 位作者 HUANG Fali YANG Zhiqiang DONG Haoliang 《Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science)》 2026年第1期121-137,共17页
To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the stre... To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%. 展开更多
关键词 elastic modulus prediction model MINERALOGICAL influence mechanism
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Photometric modeling of ejecta for evaluating defensive Kinetic impacts on asteroids
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作者 XiaoYu Sun ZhiJun Song +4 位作者 XiaoTao Guo XiaoJing Zhang Yuri Skorov Yang Yu He Zhang 《Earth and Planetary Physics》 2026年第1期205-221,共17页
Kinetic impact is the most practical planetary-defense technique,with momentum-transfer efficiency central to deflection design.We present a Monte Carlo photometric framework that couples ejecta sampling,dynamical evo... Kinetic impact is the most practical planetary-defense technique,with momentum-transfer efficiency central to deflection design.We present a Monte Carlo photometric framework that couples ejecta sampling,dynamical evolution,and image synthesis to compare directly with HST,LICIACube,ground-based and Lucy observations of the DART impact.Decomposing ejecta into(1)a highvelocity(~1600 m/s)plume exhibiting Na/K resonance,(2)a low-velocity(~1 m/s)conical component shaped by binary gravity and solar radiation pressure,and(3)meter-scale boulders,we quantify each component’s mass and momentum.Fitting photometric decay curves and morphological evolution yields size-velocity distributions and,via scaling laws,estimates of Dimorphos’bulk density,cratering parameters,and cohesive strength that agree with dynamical constraints.Photometric ejecta modeling therefore provides a robust route to constrain momentum enhancement and target properties,improving predictive capability for kinetic-deflection missions. 展开更多
关键词 Kinetic impact DART mission ejecta dynamics photometric modeling
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An Optimized Customer Churn Prediction Approach Based on Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model
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作者 Adel Saad Assiri 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第1期1783-1803,共21页
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ... Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies. 展开更多
关键词 Customer churn prediction deep learning RBiLSTM DROPOUT baseline models
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When Large Language Models and Machine Learning Meet Multi-Criteria Decision Making: Fully Integrated Approach for Social Media Moderation
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作者 Noreen Fuentes Janeth Ugang +4 位作者 Narcisan Galamiton Suzette Bacus Samantha Shane Evangelista Fatima Maturan Lanndon Ocampo 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第1期2137-2162,共26页
This study demonstrates a novel integration of large language models,machine learning,and multicriteria decision-making to investigate self-moderation in small online communities,a topic under-explored compared to use... This study demonstrates a novel integration of large language models,machine learning,and multicriteria decision-making to investigate self-moderation in small online communities,a topic under-explored compared to user behavior and platform-driven moderation on social media.The proposed methodological framework(1)utilizes large language models for social media post analysis and categorization,(2)employs k-means clustering for content characterization,and(3)incorporates the TODIM(Tomada de Decisão Interativa Multicritério)method to determine moderation strategies based on expert judgments.In general,the fully integrated framework leverages the strengths of these intelligent systems in a more systematic evaluation of large-scale decision problems.When applied in social media moderation,this approach promotes nuanced and context-sensitive self-moderation by taking into account factors such as cultural background and geographic location.The application of this framework is demonstrated within Facebook groups.Eight distinct content clusters encompassing safety,harassment,diversity,and misinformation are identified.Analysis revealed a preference for content removal across all clusters,suggesting a cautious approach towards potentially harmful content.However,the framework also highlights the use of other moderation actions,like account suspension,depending on the content category.These findings contribute to the growing body of research on self-moderation and offer valuable insights for creating safer and more inclusive online spaces within smaller communities. 展开更多
关键词 Self-moderation user-generated content k-means clustering TODIM large language models
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Lagged effects of risk factors on the disability of older adults:A distributed lag non-linear model approach
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作者 Yitong Mao Zhiting Guo +2 位作者 Wen Gao Yuping Zhang Jingfen Jin 《International Journal of Nursing Sciences》 2026年第1期53-60,I0004,I0005,共10页
Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and ... Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).After feature selection via Elastic Net Regularization,we applied DLNMs to evaluate the lagged effects of risk factors.Disability was defined as the presence of any difficulties in basic activities of daily living(BADL).The cumulative relative risk(CRR)was calculated by summing the lag-specific risk estimates,representing the cumulative disability risk over the specified lag period.Effect modifications and sensitivity analyses were also performed.Results This study included a total of 2,318 participants.Early-phase lag factors,such as the difficulty in stooping(CRR=3.58;95%CI:2.31-5.55;P<0.001)and walking(CRR=2.77;95%CI:1.39-5.55;P<0.001),exerted the strongest effects immediately upon occurrence.Mid-phase lag factors,such as arthritis(CRR=1.51;95%CI:1.10-2.06;P=0.001),showed a resurgence in disability risk within 2-3 years.Late-phase lag factors,including depressive symptoms(CRR=2.38;95%CI:1.30-4.35;P<0.001)and elevated systolic blood pressure(CRR=1.64;95%CI:1.06-2.79;P=0.02),exhibited significant long-term cumulative risks.Conversely,grip strength(CRR=0.80;95%CI:0.54-0.95;P=0.02)and social participation(CRR=0.89;95%CI:0.73-0.99;P=0.04)were significant protective factors.Conclusions The findings underscore the importance of tailored interventions that account for various lag characteristics of different factors to effectively mitigate disability risk.Future studies should explore the underlying biological and sociological mechanisms of these lagged effects,identify intervention strategies that target risk factors with different lagged patterns,and evaluate their effectiveness. 展开更多
关键词 Ageing DISABILITY Distributed lag non-linear models Nusing Risk factors
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Global Stability of Traveling Wavefronts for a Belousov-Zhabotinsky Model with Mixed Nonlocal and Degenerate Diffusions
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作者 Yuting YANG Guobao ZHANG 《Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications》 2026年第1期87-102,共16页
In this paper,we are concerned with the stability of traveling wavefronts of a Belousov-Zhabotinsky model with mixed nonlocal and degenerate diffusions.Such a system can be used to study the competition among nonlocal... In this paper,we are concerned with the stability of traveling wavefronts of a Belousov-Zhabotinsky model with mixed nonlocal and degenerate diffusions.Such a system can be used to study the competition among nonlocally diffusive species and degenerately diffusive species.We prove that the traveling wavefronts are exponentially stable,when the initial perturbation around the traveling waves decays exponentially as x→-∞,but in other locations,the initial data can be arbitrarily large.The adopted methods are the weighted energy with the comparison principle and squeezing technique. 展开更多
关键词 Belousov-Zhabotinsky model nonlocal diffusion stability comparison principle weighted energy
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