Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
Along with process control,perception represents the main function performed by the Edge Layer of an Internet of Things(IoT)network.Many of these networks implement various applications where the response time does no...Along with process control,perception represents the main function performed by the Edge Layer of an Internet of Things(IoT)network.Many of these networks implement various applications where the response time does not represent an important parameter.However,in critical applications,this parameter represents a crucial aspect.One important sensing device used in IoT designs is the accelerometer.In most applications,the response time of the embedded driver software handling this device is generally not analysed and not taken into account.In this paper,we present the design and implementation of a predictable real-time driver stack for a popular accelerometer and gyroscope device family.We provide clear justifications for why this response time is extremely important for critical applications in the acquisition process of such data.We present extensive measurements and experimental results that demonstrate the predictability of our solution,making it suitable for critical real-time systems.展开更多
Organic electrochemical transistor(OECT)devices demonstrate great promising potential for reservoir computing(RC)systems,but their lack of tunable dynamic characteristics limits their application in multi-temporal sca...Organic electrochemical transistor(OECT)devices demonstrate great promising potential for reservoir computing(RC)systems,but their lack of tunable dynamic characteristics limits their application in multi-temporal scale tasks.In this study,we report an OECT-based neuromorphic device with tunable relaxation time(τ)by introducing an additional vertical back-gate electrode into a planar structure.The dual-gate design enablesτreconfiguration from 93 to 541 ms.The tunable relaxation behaviors can be attributed to the combined effects of planar-gate induced electrochemical doping and back-gateinduced electrostatic coupling,as verified by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy analysis.Furthermore,we used theτ-tunable OECT devices as physical reservoirs in the RC system for intelligent driving trajectory prediction,achieving a significant improvement in prediction accuracy from below 69%to 99%.The results demonstrate that theτ-tunable OECT shows a promising candidate for multi-temporal scale neuromorphic computing applications.展开更多
Delayed wound healing following radical gastrectomy remains an important yet underappreciated complication that prolongs hospitalization,increases costs,and undermines patient recovery.In An et al’s recent study,the ...Delayed wound healing following radical gastrectomy remains an important yet underappreciated complication that prolongs hospitalization,increases costs,and undermines patient recovery.In An et al’s recent study,the authors present a machine learning-based risk prediction approach using routinely available clinical and laboratory parameters.Among the evaluated algorithms,a decision tree model demonstrated excellent discrimination,achieving an area under the curve of 0.951 in the validation set and notably identifying all true cases of delayed wound healing at the Youden index threshold.The inclusion of variables such as drainage duration,preoperative white blood cell and neutrophil counts,alongside age and sex,highlights the pragmatic appeal of the model for early postoperative monitoring.Nevertheless,several aspects warrant critical reflection,including the reliance on a postoperative variable(drainage duration),internal validation only,and certain reporting inconsistencies.This letter underscores both the promise and the limitations of adopting interpretable machine learning models in perioperative care.We advocate for transparent reporting,external validation,and careful consideration of clinically actionable timepoints before integration into practice.Ultimately,this work represents a valuable step toward precision risk stratification in gastric cancer surgery,and sets the stage for multicenter,prospective evaluations.展开更多
Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instabili...Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.展开更多
Rapid regional population shifts and spatial polarization have heightened pressure on cultivated land—a critical resource demanding urgent attention amid ongoing urban-rural transition.This study selects Jiangsu prov...Rapid regional population shifts and spatial polarization have heightened pressure on cultivated land—a critical resource demanding urgent attention amid ongoing urban-rural transition.This study selects Jiangsu province,a national leader in both economic and agricultural development,as a case area to construct a multidimensional framework for assessing the recessive morphological characteristics of multifunctional cultivated land use.We examine temporal dynamics,spatial heterogeneity,and propose an integrated zoning strategy based on empirical analysis.The results reveal that:(1)The recessive morphology index shows a consistent upward trend,with structural breaks in 2007 and 2013,and a spatial shift from“higher in the east and lower in the west”to“higher in the south and lower in the north.”(2)Coordination among sub-dimensions of the index has steadily improved.(3)The index is expected to continue rising in the next decade,though at a slower pace.(4)To promote coordinated multidimensional land-use development,we recommend a policy framework that reinforces existing strengths,addresses weaknesses,and adapts zoning schemes to current spatial conditions.This research offers new insights into multifunctional cultivated land systems and underscores their role in enhancing human well-being,securing food supply,and supporting sustainable urban-rural integration.展开更多
The functional properties of glasses are governed by their formation history and the complex relaxation processes they undergo.However,under extreme conditions,glass behaviors are still elusive.In this study,we employ...The functional properties of glasses are governed by their formation history and the complex relaxation processes they undergo.However,under extreme conditions,glass behaviors are still elusive.In this study,we employ simulations with varied protocols to evaluate the effectiveness of different descriptors in predicting mechanical properties across both low-and high-pressure regimes.Our findings demonstrate that conventional structural and configurational descriptors fail to correlate with the mechanical response following pressure release,whereas the activation energy descriptor exhibits robust linearity with shear modulus after correcting for pressure effects.Notably,the soft mode parameter emerges as an ideal and computationally efficient alternative for capturing this mechanical behavior.These findings provide critical insights into the influence of pressure on glassy properties,integrating the distinct features of compressed glasses into a unified theoretical framework.展开更多
Advanced geological prediction is a crucial means to ensure safety and efficiency in tunnel construction.However,diff erent advanced geological forecasting methods have their own limitations,resulting in poor detectio...Advanced geological prediction is a crucial means to ensure safety and efficiency in tunnel construction.However,diff erent advanced geological forecasting methods have their own limitations,resulting in poor detection accuracy.Using multiple methods to carry out a comprehensive evaluation can eff ectively improve the accuracy of advanced geological prediction results.In this study,geological information is combined with the detection results of geophysical methods,including transient electromagnetic,induced polarization,and tunnel seismic prediction,to establish a comprehensive analysis method of adverse geology.First,the possible main adverse geological problems are determined according to the geological information.Subsequently,various physical parameters of the rock mass in front of the tunnel face can then be derived on the basis of multisource geophysical data.Finally,based on the analysis results of geological information,the multisource data fusion algorithm is used to determine the type,location,and scale of adverse geology.The advanced geological prediction results that can provide eff ective guidance for tunnel construction can then be obtained.展开更多
In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are revi...In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are reviewed,and the“spring predictability barrier”problem for El Nino‒Southern Oscillation events and targeted observation issues for tropical cyclone forecasts are taken as two representative examples.Nonlinear theory reveals that initial errors of particular spatial structures,environmental conditions,and nonlinear processes contribute to significant prediction errors,whereas nonlinear technology provides a pioneering approach for reducing observational and forecast errors via targeted observations through the application of the CNOP method.Follow-up research further validates the scientific rigor of the theory in revealing the nonlinear mechanism of significant prediction errors,and relevant practical field campaigns for targeted observations verify the effectiveness of the technology in reducing prediction uncertainties.The CNOP method has achieved international recognition;furthermore,its applications further extend to ensemble forecasts for weather and climate and further enrich the nonlinear technology for reducing prediction uncertainties.It is expected that this nonlinear theory and technology will play a considerably important role in reducing prediction uncertainties for high-impact weather and climate events.展开更多
Due to its synergistic effects and reduced side effects,combination therapy has become an important strategy for treating complex diseases.In traditional Chinese medicine(TCM),the“monarch,minister,assistant,envoy”co...Due to its synergistic effects and reduced side effects,combination therapy has become an important strategy for treating complex diseases.In traditional Chinese medicine(TCM),the“monarch,minister,assistant,envoy”compatibilities theory provides a systematic framework for drug compatibility and has guided the formation of a large number of classic formulas.However,due to the complex compositions and diverse mechanisms of action of TCM,it is difficult to comprehensively reveal its potential synergistic patterns using traditional methods.Synergistic prediction based on molecular compatibility theory provides new ideas for identifying combinations of active compounds in TCM.Compared to resource-intensive traditional experimental methods,artificial intelligence possesses the ability to mine synergistic patterns from multi-omics and structural data,providing an efficient means for modeling and optimizing TCM combinations.This paper systematically reviews the application progress of AI in the synergistic prediction of TCM active compounds and explores the challenges and prospects of its application in modeling combination relationships,thereby contributing to the modernization of TCM theory and methodological innovation.展开更多
As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods fa...As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security.展开更多
This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key de...This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key design parameters including casing dimensions and detonation positions.The paper details the finite element analysis for fragmentation,the characterizations of the dynamic hardening and fracture models,the generation of comprehensive datasets,and the training of the ANN model.The results show the influence of casing dimensions on fragment velocity distributions,with the tendencies indicating increased resultant velocity with reduced thickness,increased length and diameter.The model's predictive capability is demonstrated through the accurate predictions for both training and testing datasets,showing its potential for the real-time prediction of fragmentation performance.展开更多
With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intellig...With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intelligent SA(ISA).However,the existing AI-based SA approaches often rely on unimodal data and lack a comprehensive description and benchmark of the ISA tasks utilizing multi-modal data for real-time ATC environments.To address this gap,by analyzing the situation awareness procedure of the ATCOs,the ISA task is refined to the processing of the two primary elements,i.e.,spoken instructions and flight trajectories.Subsequently,the ISA is further formulated into Controlling Intent Understanding(CIU)and Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP)tasks.For the CIU task,an innovative automatic speech recognition and understanding framework is designed to extract the controlling intent from unstructured and continuous ATC communications.For the FTP task,the single-and multi-horizon FTP approaches are investigated to support the high-precision prediction of the situation evolution.A total of 32 unimodal/multi-modal advanced methods with extensive evaluation metrics are introduced to conduct the benchmarks on the real-world multi-modal ATC situation dataset.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-based techniques in enhancing ISA for the ATC environment.展开更多
A composite anti-disturbance predictive control strategy employing a Multi-dimensional Taylor Network(MTN)is presented for unmanned systems subject to time-delay and multi-source disturbances.First,the multi-source di...A composite anti-disturbance predictive control strategy employing a Multi-dimensional Taylor Network(MTN)is presented for unmanned systems subject to time-delay and multi-source disturbances.First,the multi-source disturbances are addressed according to their specific characteristics as follows:(A)an MTN data-driven model,which is used for uncertainty description,is designed accompanied with the mechanism model to represent the unmanned systems;(B)an adaptive MTN filter is used to remove the influence of the internal disturbance;(C)an MTN disturbance observer is constructed to estimate and compensate for the influence of the external disturbance;(D)the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF)algorithm is utilized as the learning mechanism for MTNs.Second,to address the time-delay effect,a recursiveτstep-ahead MTN predictive model is designed utilizing recursive technology,aiming to mitigate the impact of time-delay,and the EKF algorithm is employed as its learning mechanism.Then,the MTN predictive control law is designed based on the quadratic performance index.By implementing the proposed composite controller to unmanned systems,simultaneous feedforward compensation and feedback suppression to the multi-source disturbances are conducted.Finally,the convergence of the MTN and the stability of the closed-loop system are established utilizing the Lyapunov theorem.Two exemplary applications of unmanned systems involving unmanned vehicle and rigid spacecraft are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
Large-scale new energy grid connection leads to the weakening of the system frequency regulation capability,and the system frequency stability is facing unprecedented challenges.In order to solve rapid frequency fluct...Large-scale new energy grid connection leads to the weakening of the system frequency regulation capability,and the system frequency stability is facing unprecedented challenges.In order to solve rapid frequency fluctuation caused by new energy units,this paper proposes a new energy power system frequency regulation strategy with multiple units including the doubly-fed pumped storage unit(DFPSU).Firstly,based on the model predictive control(MPC)theory,the state space equations are established by considering the operating characteristics of the units and the dynamic behavior of the system;secondly,the proportional-differential control link is introduced to minimize the frequency deviation to further optimize the frequency modulation(FM)output of the DFPSU and inhibit the rapid fluctuation of the frequency;lastly,it is verified on theMatlab/Simulink simulation platform,and the results show that the model predictive control with proportional-differential control link can further release the FM potential of the DFPSU,increase the depth of its FM,effectively reduce the frequency deviation of the system and its rate of change,realize the optimization of the active output of the DFPSU and that of other units,and improve the frequency response capability of the system.展开更多
Typhoons can cause large-area blackouts or partial outages of distribution networks.We define a partial outage state in the distribution network as a gray state and propose a gray-start strategy and two-stage distribu...Typhoons can cause large-area blackouts or partial outages of distribution networks.We define a partial outage state in the distribution network as a gray state and propose a gray-start strategy and two-stage distribution network emergency recovery framework.A phase-space reconstruction and stacked integrated model for predicting wind and photovoltaic generation during typhoon disasters is proposed in the first stage.This provides guidance for second-stage post-disaster emergency recovery scheduling.The emergency recovery scheduling model is established in the second stage,and this model is supported by a thermal power-generating unit,mobile emergency generators,and distributed generators.Distributed generation includes wind power generation,photovoltaics,fuel cells,etc.Simultaneously,we con-sider the gray-start based on the pumped storage unit to be an important first step in the emergency recovery strategy.This model is val-idated on the improved IEEE 33 node system,which utilizes data from the 2022 super typhoon“Muifa”in Zhoushan,Zhejiang,China.Simulations indicate the superiority of a gray start with a pumped storage unit and the proposed emergency recovery strategy.展开更多
Unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have become crucial tools in moving target tracking due to their agility and ability to operate in complex,dynamic environments.UAVs must meet several requirements to achieve stable track...Unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have become crucial tools in moving target tracking due to their agility and ability to operate in complex,dynamic environments.UAVs must meet several requirements to achieve stable tracking,including maintaining continuous target visibility amidst occlusions,ensuring flight safety,and achieving smooth trajectory planning.This paper reviews the latest advancements in UAV-based target tracking,highlighting information prediction,tracking strategies,and swarm cooperation.To address challenges including target visibility and occlusion,real-time prediction and tracking in dynamic environments,flight safety and coordination,resource management and energy efficiency,the paper identifies future research directions aimed at improving the performance,reliability,and scalability of UAV tracking system.展开更多
To address the challenges posed by tunnel construction in the alpine region,silica fume mixed concrete is commonly used as a construction material.The correlation between silica fume content and the lining life requir...To address the challenges posed by tunnel construction in the alpine region,silica fume mixed concrete is commonly used as a construction material.The correlation between silica fume content and the lining life requires immediate investigation.In view of this phenomenon,the durability of unit lining concrete is predicted by analyzing three key indicators:carbonation depth,relative dynamic elastic modulus,and residual quality.This prediction is achieved by integrating the Entropy Weight Method,Grey theory life prediction model and BP artificial neural networks using data from tests and predictions of these indicators.Then,the Entropy Weight-Grey theory-BP Network Model is compared with other methods to analyze the predicted life.Finally,verify the sci-entificity of this model,and the optimum silica fume content of unit concrete lining is verified.The results showed,1)The addition of silica fume will accelerate the carbonization of unit concrete lining,and slow down the freeze-thaw cycle and sulfate erosion.2)The utilization of artificial neural networks is essential for enhancing the realism of the data,as it emphasizes the significance of silica fume content.3)Silica fume content of 10%results in the longest life and is the most suitable for lining construction.4)A comparison between single-factor and multi-factor predictions indicates that the multi-factor approach yields a longer maximum life.This improvement can be attributed to the inclusion of additional factors,such as freeze-thaw cycles and carbonation,which enhance the predicted life when employing these methods.In conclusion,the Entropy Weight-Grey Theory-BP Network life prediction Model is well-suited for tunnel lining in the alpine sulfate area of northwest China.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
文摘Along with process control,perception represents the main function performed by the Edge Layer of an Internet of Things(IoT)network.Many of these networks implement various applications where the response time does not represent an important parameter.However,in critical applications,this parameter represents a crucial aspect.One important sensing device used in IoT designs is the accelerometer.In most applications,the response time of the embedded driver software handling this device is generally not analysed and not taken into account.In this paper,we present the design and implementation of a predictable real-time driver stack for a popular accelerometer and gyroscope device family.We provide clear justifications for why this response time is extremely important for critical applications in the acquisition process of such data.We present extensive measurements and experimental results that demonstrate the predictability of our solution,making it suitable for critical real-time systems.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant 2022YFB3608300in part by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grants 62404050,U2341218,62574056,62204052。
文摘Organic electrochemical transistor(OECT)devices demonstrate great promising potential for reservoir computing(RC)systems,but their lack of tunable dynamic characteristics limits their application in multi-temporal scale tasks.In this study,we report an OECT-based neuromorphic device with tunable relaxation time(τ)by introducing an additional vertical back-gate electrode into a planar structure.The dual-gate design enablesτreconfiguration from 93 to 541 ms.The tunable relaxation behaviors can be attributed to the combined effects of planar-gate induced electrochemical doping and back-gateinduced electrostatic coupling,as verified by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy analysis.Furthermore,we used theτ-tunable OECT devices as physical reservoirs in the RC system for intelligent driving trajectory prediction,achieving a significant improvement in prediction accuracy from below 69%to 99%.The results demonstrate that theτ-tunable OECT shows a promising candidate for multi-temporal scale neuromorphic computing applications.
文摘Delayed wound healing following radical gastrectomy remains an important yet underappreciated complication that prolongs hospitalization,increases costs,and undermines patient recovery.In An et al’s recent study,the authors present a machine learning-based risk prediction approach using routinely available clinical and laboratory parameters.Among the evaluated algorithms,a decision tree model demonstrated excellent discrimination,achieving an area under the curve of 0.951 in the validation set and notably identifying all true cases of delayed wound healing at the Youden index threshold.The inclusion of variables such as drainage duration,preoperative white blood cell and neutrophil counts,alongside age and sex,highlights the pragmatic appeal of the model for early postoperative monitoring.Nevertheless,several aspects warrant critical reflection,including the reliance on a postoperative variable(drainage duration),internal validation only,and certain reporting inconsistencies.This letter underscores both the promise and the limitations of adopting interpretable machine learning models in perioperative care.We advocate for transparent reporting,external validation,and careful consideration of clinically actionable timepoints before integration into practice.Ultimately,this work represents a valuable step toward precision risk stratification in gastric cancer surgery,and sets the stage for multicenter,prospective evaluations.
基金Supported by the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China.
文摘Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42101252。
文摘Rapid regional population shifts and spatial polarization have heightened pressure on cultivated land—a critical resource demanding urgent attention amid ongoing urban-rural transition.This study selects Jiangsu province,a national leader in both economic and agricultural development,as a case area to construct a multidimensional framework for assessing the recessive morphological characteristics of multifunctional cultivated land use.We examine temporal dynamics,spatial heterogeneity,and propose an integrated zoning strategy based on empirical analysis.The results reveal that:(1)The recessive morphology index shows a consistent upward trend,with structural breaks in 2007 and 2013,and a spatial shift from“higher in the east and lower in the west”to“higher in the south and lower in the north.”(2)Coordination among sub-dimensions of the index has steadily improved.(3)The index is expected to continue rising in the next decade,though at a slower pace.(4)To promote coordinated multidimensional land-use development,we recommend a policy framework that reinforces existing strengths,addresses weaknesses,and adapts zoning schemes to current spatial conditions.This research offers new insights into multifunctional cultivated land systems and underscores their role in enhancing human well-being,securing food supply,and supporting sustainable urban-rural integration.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.T2325004 and 52161160330)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.12504233)+2 种基金Advanced MaterialsNational Science and Technology Major Project (Grant No.2024ZD0606900)the Talent Hub for “AI+New Materials” Basic Researchthe Key Research and Development Program of Ningbo (Grant No.2025Z088)。
文摘The functional properties of glasses are governed by their formation history and the complex relaxation processes they undergo.However,under extreme conditions,glass behaviors are still elusive.In this study,we employ simulations with varied protocols to evaluate the effectiveness of different descriptors in predicting mechanical properties across both low-and high-pressure regimes.Our findings demonstrate that conventional structural and configurational descriptors fail to correlate with the mechanical response following pressure release,whereas the activation energy descriptor exhibits robust linearity with shear modulus after correcting for pressure effects.Notably,the soft mode parameter emerges as an ideal and computationally efficient alternative for capturing this mechanical behavior.These findings provide critical insights into the influence of pressure on glassy properties,integrating the distinct features of compressed glasses into a unified theoretical framework.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers 42293351,41877239,51422904 and 51379112).
文摘Advanced geological prediction is a crucial means to ensure safety and efficiency in tunnel construction.However,diff erent advanced geological forecasting methods have their own limitations,resulting in poor detection accuracy.Using multiple methods to carry out a comprehensive evaluation can eff ectively improve the accuracy of advanced geological prediction results.In this study,geological information is combined with the detection results of geophysical methods,including transient electromagnetic,induced polarization,and tunnel seismic prediction,to establish a comprehensive analysis method of adverse geology.First,the possible main adverse geological problems are determined according to the geological information.Subsequently,various physical parameters of the rock mass in front of the tunnel face can then be derived on the basis of multisource geophysical data.Finally,based on the analysis results of geological information,the multisource data fusion algorithm is used to determine the type,location,and scale of adverse geology.The advanced geological prediction results that can provide eff ective guidance for tunnel construction can then be obtained.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grant No.42330111).
文摘In this article,our nonlinear theory and technology for reducing the uncertainties of high-impact ocean‒atmosphere event predictions,with the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method as its core,are reviewed,and the“spring predictability barrier”problem for El Nino‒Southern Oscillation events and targeted observation issues for tropical cyclone forecasts are taken as two representative examples.Nonlinear theory reveals that initial errors of particular spatial structures,environmental conditions,and nonlinear processes contribute to significant prediction errors,whereas nonlinear technology provides a pioneering approach for reducing observational and forecast errors via targeted observations through the application of the CNOP method.Follow-up research further validates the scientific rigor of the theory in revealing the nonlinear mechanism of significant prediction errors,and relevant practical field campaigns for targeted observations verify the effectiveness of the technology in reducing prediction uncertainties.The CNOP method has achieved international recognition;furthermore,its applications further extend to ensemble forecasts for weather and climate and further enrich the nonlinear technology for reducing prediction uncertainties.It is expected that this nonlinear theory and technology will play a considerably important role in reducing prediction uncertainties for high-impact weather and climate events.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2024YFC3506900)Science and Technology Program of Tianjin(No.24ZXZSSS00460)Special Project for Technological Innovation in New Productive Forces of Modern Chinese Medicines(No.24ZXZKSY00010)。
文摘Due to its synergistic effects and reduced side effects,combination therapy has become an important strategy for treating complex diseases.In traditional Chinese medicine(TCM),the“monarch,minister,assistant,envoy”compatibilities theory provides a systematic framework for drug compatibility and has guided the formation of a large number of classic formulas.However,due to the complex compositions and diverse mechanisms of action of TCM,it is difficult to comprehensively reveal its potential synergistic patterns using traditional methods.Synergistic prediction based on molecular compatibility theory provides new ideas for identifying combinations of active compounds in TCM.Compared to resource-intensive traditional experimental methods,artificial intelligence possesses the ability to mine synergistic patterns from multi-omics and structural data,providing an efficient means for modeling and optimizing TCM combinations.This paper systematically reviews the application progress of AI in the synergistic prediction of TCM active compounds and explores the challenges and prospects of its application in modeling combination relationships,thereby contributing to the modernization of TCM theory and methodological innovation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U20A20182.
文摘As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security.
基金supported by Poongsan-KAIST Future Research Center Projectthe fund support provided by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT)(Grant No.2023R1A2C2005661)。
文摘This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key design parameters including casing dimensions and detonation positions.The paper details the finite element analysis for fragmentation,the characterizations of the dynamic hardening and fracture models,the generation of comprehensive datasets,and the training of the ANN model.The results show the influence of casing dimensions on fragment velocity distributions,with the tendencies indicating increased resultant velocity with reduced thickness,increased length and diameter.The model's predictive capability is demonstrated through the accurate predictions for both training and testing datasets,showing its potential for the real-time prediction of fragmentation performance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62371323,62401380,U2433217,U2333209,and U20A20161)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province,China(Nos.2025ZNSFSC1476)+2 种基金Sichuan Science and Technology Program,China(Nos.2024YFG0010 and 2024ZDZX0046)the Institutional Research Fund from Sichuan University(Nos.2024SCUQJTX030)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Flight Techniques and Flight Safety,CAAC(Nos.GY2024-01A).
文摘With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intelligent SA(ISA).However,the existing AI-based SA approaches often rely on unimodal data and lack a comprehensive description and benchmark of the ISA tasks utilizing multi-modal data for real-time ATC environments.To address this gap,by analyzing the situation awareness procedure of the ATCOs,the ISA task is refined to the processing of the two primary elements,i.e.,spoken instructions and flight trajectories.Subsequently,the ISA is further formulated into Controlling Intent Understanding(CIU)and Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP)tasks.For the CIU task,an innovative automatic speech recognition and understanding framework is designed to extract the controlling intent from unstructured and continuous ATC communications.For the FTP task,the single-and multi-horizon FTP approaches are investigated to support the high-precision prediction of the situation evolution.A total of 32 unimodal/multi-modal advanced methods with extensive evaluation metrics are introduced to conduct the benchmarks on the real-world multi-modal ATC situation dataset.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-based techniques in enhancing ISA for the ATC environment.
基金co-supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFB4704400)the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LQ24F030012)the National Natural Science Foundation of China General Project(No.62373033)。
文摘A composite anti-disturbance predictive control strategy employing a Multi-dimensional Taylor Network(MTN)is presented for unmanned systems subject to time-delay and multi-source disturbances.First,the multi-source disturbances are addressed according to their specific characteristics as follows:(A)an MTN data-driven model,which is used for uncertainty description,is designed accompanied with the mechanism model to represent the unmanned systems;(B)an adaptive MTN filter is used to remove the influence of the internal disturbance;(C)an MTN disturbance observer is constructed to estimate and compensate for the influence of the external disturbance;(D)the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF)algorithm is utilized as the learning mechanism for MTNs.Second,to address the time-delay effect,a recursiveτstep-ahead MTN predictive model is designed utilizing recursive technology,aiming to mitigate the impact of time-delay,and the EKF algorithm is employed as its learning mechanism.Then,the MTN predictive control law is designed based on the quadratic performance index.By implementing the proposed composite controller to unmanned systems,simultaneous feedforward compensation and feedback suppression to the multi-source disturbances are conducted.Finally,the convergence of the MTN and the stability of the closed-loop system are established utilizing the Lyapunov theorem.Two exemplary applications of unmanned systems involving unmanned vehicle and rigid spacecraft are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project No.52377082)the Scientific Research Program of Jilin Provincial Department of Education(Project No.JJKH20230123KJ).
文摘Large-scale new energy grid connection leads to the weakening of the system frequency regulation capability,and the system frequency stability is facing unprecedented challenges.In order to solve rapid frequency fluctuation caused by new energy units,this paper proposes a new energy power system frequency regulation strategy with multiple units including the doubly-fed pumped storage unit(DFPSU).Firstly,based on the model predictive control(MPC)theory,the state space equations are established by considering the operating characteristics of the units and the dynamic behavior of the system;secondly,the proportional-differential control link is introduced to minimize the frequency deviation to further optimize the frequency modulation(FM)output of the DFPSU and inhibit the rapid fluctuation of the frequency;lastly,it is verified on theMatlab/Simulink simulation platform,and the results show that the model predictive control with proportional-differential control link can further release the FM potential of the DFPSU,increase the depth of its FM,effectively reduce the frequency deviation of the system and its rate of change,realize the optimization of the active output of the DFPSU and that of other units,and improve the frequency response capability of the system.
基金supported in part by the National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China(52177110)Key Pro-gram of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22B20106,U2142206)+2 种基金Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(JCYJ20210324131409026)the Science and Technology Project of the State Grid Corpo-ration of China(5200-202319382A-2-3-XG)State Grid Zhejiang Elctric Power Co.,Ltd.Science and Tech-nology Project(B311DS24001A).
文摘Typhoons can cause large-area blackouts or partial outages of distribution networks.We define a partial outage state in the distribution network as a gray state and propose a gray-start strategy and two-stage distribution network emergency recovery framework.A phase-space reconstruction and stacked integrated model for predicting wind and photovoltaic generation during typhoon disasters is proposed in the first stage.This provides guidance for second-stage post-disaster emergency recovery scheduling.The emergency recovery scheduling model is established in the second stage,and this model is supported by a thermal power-generating unit,mobile emergency generators,and distributed generators.Distributed generation includes wind power generation,photovoltaics,fuel cells,etc.Simultaneously,we con-sider the gray-start based on the pumped storage unit to be an important first step in the emergency recovery strategy.This model is val-idated on the improved IEEE 33 node system,which utilizes data from the 2022 super typhoon“Muifa”in Zhoushan,Zhejiang,China.Simulations indicate the superiority of a gray start with a pumped storage unit and the proposed emergency recovery strategy.
基金financial support provided by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China(Grant No.2021JJ10045)the Open Research Subject of State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Game(Grant No.ZBKF-24-01)+1 种基金the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(Grant No.GZB20240989)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2024M754304)。
文摘Unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have become crucial tools in moving target tracking due to their agility and ability to operate in complex,dynamic environments.UAVs must meet several requirements to achieve stable tracking,including maintaining continuous target visibility amidst occlusions,ensuring flight safety,and achieving smooth trajectory planning.This paper reviews the latest advancements in UAV-based target tracking,highlighting information prediction,tracking strategies,and swarm cooperation.To address challenges including target visibility and occlusion,real-time prediction and tracking in dynamic environments,flight safety and coordination,resource management and energy efficiency,the paper identifies future research directions aimed at improving the performance,reliability,and scalability of UAV tracking system.
基金funded by the Technology Funding Scheme of China Construction Second Engineering Bureau LTD(2020ZX150002)the National Natural Science Foundation Project of China(12262018).
文摘To address the challenges posed by tunnel construction in the alpine region,silica fume mixed concrete is commonly used as a construction material.The correlation between silica fume content and the lining life requires immediate investigation.In view of this phenomenon,the durability of unit lining concrete is predicted by analyzing three key indicators:carbonation depth,relative dynamic elastic modulus,and residual quality.This prediction is achieved by integrating the Entropy Weight Method,Grey theory life prediction model and BP artificial neural networks using data from tests and predictions of these indicators.Then,the Entropy Weight-Grey theory-BP Network Model is compared with other methods to analyze the predicted life.Finally,verify the sci-entificity of this model,and the optimum silica fume content of unit concrete lining is verified.The results showed,1)The addition of silica fume will accelerate the carbonization of unit concrete lining,and slow down the freeze-thaw cycle and sulfate erosion.2)The utilization of artificial neural networks is essential for enhancing the realism of the data,as it emphasizes the significance of silica fume content.3)Silica fume content of 10%results in the longest life and is the most suitable for lining construction.4)A comparison between single-factor and multi-factor predictions indicates that the multi-factor approach yields a longer maximum life.This improvement can be attributed to the inclusion of additional factors,such as freeze-thaw cycles and carbonation,which enhance the predicted life when employing these methods.In conclusion,the Entropy Weight-Grey Theory-BP Network life prediction Model is well-suited for tunnel lining in the alpine sulfate area of northwest China.
