Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is critical for the effective treatment. Alpha fetoprotein （AFP） serum level is currently used for HCC screening, but the cutoff of the AFP test has limited sensit...Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is critical for the effective treatment. Alpha fetoprotein （AFP） serum level is currently used for HCC screening, but the cutoff of the AFP test has limited sensitivity （-50%）, indicating a high false negative rate. We have successfully demonstrated that cancer derived DNA biomarkers can be detected in urine of patients with cancer and can be used for the early detection of cancer （Jain et al., 2015; Lin et al., 2011; Song et al., 2012; Su, Lin, Song, ＆ Jain, 2014; Su, Wang, Norton, Brenner, ＆ Block, 2008）. By combining urine biomarkers （uBMK） values and serum AFP （sAFP） level, a new classification model has been proposed for more efficient HCC screening. Several criterions have been discussed to optimal the cutoff for uBMK score and sAFP score. A joint distribution of sAFP and uBMK with point mass has been fitted using maximum likelihood method. Numerical results show that the sAFP data and uBMK data are very well described by proposed model. A tree-structured sequential test can be optimized by selecting the cutoffs. Bootstrap simulations also show the robust classification results with the optimal cuto~..展开更多
Stochastic models are derived to estimate the level of coliform count in terms of MPN index, one of the most important water quality characteristic in ground water based on a set of water source location and soil char...Stochastic models are derived to estimate the level of coliform count in terms of MPN index, one of the most important water quality characteristic in ground water based on a set of water source location and soil characteristics. The study is based on about twenty location and soil characteristics, majority of them are observed through laboratory analysis of soil and water samples collected from nearly thee hundred locations of drinking water sources, wells and bore wells selected at random from the district of Kasaragod. The water contamination in wells are found to be relatively more as compared to bore wells. The study reveals that only 7 % of the wells and 40 o~ of the bore wells of the district are within the permissible limit of WHO standard of drinking water quality. The level of contamination is very high in the hospital premises and is very low in the forest area. Two separate multiple ordinal logistic regression models are developed to predict the level of coliform count, one for well and the other for bore well. The significant feature of this study is that in addition to scientifically proving the dependence of the water quality on the distances from waste disposal area and septic tanks etc., it highlights the dependence of two other very significant soil characteristics, the soil organic carbon and soil porosity. The models enable to predict the quality of water in a location based on the set of soil and location characteristics. One of the important uses of the model is in fixing safe locations for waste dump area, septic tank, digging well etc. in town planning, designing residential layouts, industrial layouts, hospital/hostel construction etc. This is the first ever study to describe the ground water quality in terms of the location and soil characteristics.展开更多
Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict o...Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.展开更多
Privacy protection for big data linking is discussed here in relation to the Central Statistics Office （CSO）, Ireland＇s, big data linking project titled the ＇Structure of Earnings Survey - Administrative Data Proj...Privacy protection for big data linking is discussed here in relation to the Central Statistics Office （CSO）, Ireland＇s, big data linking project titled the ＇Structure of Earnings Survey - Administrative Data Project＇ （SESADP）. The result of the project was the creation of datasets and statistical outputs for the years 2011 to 2014 to meet Eurostat＇s annual earnings statistics requirements and the Structure of Earnings Survey （SES） Regulation. Record linking across the Census and various public sector datasets enabled the necessary information to be acquired to meet the Eurostat earnings requirements. However, the risk of statistical disclosure （i.e. identifying an individual on the dataset） is high unless privacy and confidentiality safe-guards are built into the data matching process. This paper looks at the three methods of linking records on big datasets employed on the SESADP, and how to anonymise the data to protect the identity of the individuals, where potentially disclosive variables exist.展开更多
This paper describes how data records can be matched across large datasets using a technique called the Identity Correlation Approach （ICA）. The ICA technique is then compared with a string matching exercise. Both t...This paper describes how data records can be matched across large datasets using a technique called the Identity Correlation Approach （ICA）. The ICA technique is then compared with a string matching exercise. Both the string matching exercise and the ICA technique were employed for a big data project carried out by the CSO. The project was called the SESADP （Structure of Earnings Survey Administrative Data Project） and involved linking the Irish Census dataset 2011 to a large Public Sector Dataset. The ICA technique provides a mathematical tool to link the datasets and the matching rate for an exact match can be calculated before the matching process begins. Based on the number of variables and the size of the population, the matching rate is calculated in the ICA approach from the MRUI （Matching Rate for Unique Identifier） formula, and false positives are eliminated. No string matching is used in the ICA, therefore names are not required on the dataset, making the data more secure ＆ ensuring confidentiality. The SESADP Project was highly successful using the ICA technique. A comparison of the results using a string matching exercise for the SESADP and the ICA are discussed here.展开更多
This paper focuses on time series forecasting of monthly occurrence of fatal road accidents in Ondo State of Nigeria. Its aim, however, is to use time series analysis to analyze the data obtained from Federal Road Saf...This paper focuses on time series forecasting of monthly occurrence of fatal road accidents in Ondo State of Nigeria. Its aim, however, is to use time series analysis to analyze the data obtained from Federal Road Safety Corps （FRSC）, Ondo State Command; which was considered in two cases： the total cases reported （TCR） and the number of deaths resulted from accidents （NOD）. Various smoothing models for time series were used to analyze the two cases. Based on the models, predictions were made and the results show a steady increase as a result of long-term effects on road accidents for the two cases. It was found also that simple exponential smoothing model is the appropriate model for both TCR and NOD.展开更多
This study made a pioneering attempt to econometrically examine what factors determining impaired financing using shariah committee meetings frequency from data on Islamic banks in Malaysia and how does it affects on ...This study made a pioneering attempt to econometrically examine what factors determining impaired financing using shariah committee meetings frequency from data on Islamic banks in Malaysia and how does it affects on the quality of assets. The objective of the study is to improve assessment of their assets quality so as to increase the reliability of the financial statements. The European Central Bank may find the findings from this study useful in their exercise to assess risks and assets quality of their commercial banks, a move to tackle the ailing banks in centralizing oversight supervision in late 2014. The major components of the Islamic banks＇ assets quality are impaired financing and provisions for financing impairment. In the Islamic banks, shariah committee principally manages the shariah risks non-compliance with other risks; however because their management is not straightforward, the study uses the shariah committee meetings frequency as an indicator of the assets quality. The study found the less-than-full frequency of shariah committee meetings resulted in less guidance and conformation of shariah principles, and consequentially the quality of the assets.展开更多
The essentialities of crop production forecasting are huge. Crop production forecasts are mainly used to monitor food security and compile Gross Domestic Product. Due to the usefulness of crop production forecasts, th...The essentialities of crop production forecasting are huge. Crop production forecasts are mainly used to monitor food security and compile Gross Domestic Product. Due to the usefulness of crop production forecasts, this paper uses a Seasonal Regression Model to forecast crop production. Given the fact that one agricultural season differs from another in terms of number of the days, weather conditions （the amount of rains received）, and crop growing conditions as a whole, this paper models agriculture production as function of agriculture season performance. This paper provides cereal crop specification end-of-season production forecasts. Production forecasts in this paper rely on crop production recorded in 32 last agriculture seasons and season performances. In sample production forecasts are evaluated using R2＇ MAPE, and SMAPE. An out sample forecasts for six agricultural seasons ahead were computed for rice time series that satisfy the condition of MAPE and SMAPE less that 10% and which IMAE and ISMAE curves coincide at all fitted points.展开更多
We consider a an existence instantaneous new class of fractional integro-differential equations with non instantaneous impulses. We establish theorem for abstract fractional impulsive moments. The results and resolven...We consider a an existence instantaneous new class of fractional integro-differential equations with non instantaneous impulses. We establish theorem for abstract fractional impulsive moments. The results and resolvent operator integro-differential equations with initial conditions under non are obtained by using the fixed point theorem for condensing map展开更多
Stem diameter distribution information is useful in forest management planning. Weibull function is flexible, and has been used in characterising diameter distributions, especially in single-species planted stands, th...Stem diameter distribution information is useful in forest management planning. Weibull function is flexible, and has been used in characterising diameter distributions, especially in single-species planted stands, the world over. We evaluated some Weibull parameter estimation methods for stem diameter characterisation in （Oban） multi-species Forest in southern Nigeria. Four study sites （Aking, Ekang, Erokut and Ekuri） were selected. Four 2 km-long transects situated at 600 m apart were laid in each location. Five 50m x 50m plots were alternately laid along each transect at 400 m apart （20 plots/location） using systematic sampling technique. Tree growth variables： diameter at breast height （Dbh）, diameters at the base, middle and merchantable limit, total height, merchantable height, stem straightness, crown length and crown diameter were measured on all trees 〉 10 cm to compute model response variables such as mean diameters, basal area and stem volume. Weibull parameters estimation methods used were： moment-based, percentile-based, hybrid and maximum-likelihood （ML）. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, regression models and ANOVA at α0.05. Percentile-based method was the best for Weibull [location （a）, scale （b） and shape （c）] parameters estimations with mLogL = 116.66±21.89, while hybrid method was least-suitable （mLogL = 690.14±128.81） for Weibull parameters estimations. Quadratic mean diameter （Dq） was the only suitable predictor of Weibull parameters in Oban Forest.展开更多
There are four serious problems in the discriminant analysis. We developed an optimal linear discriminant function （optimal LDF） based on the minimum number of misclassification （minimum NM） using integer programm...There are four serious problems in the discriminant analysis. We developed an optimal linear discriminant function （optimal LDF） based on the minimum number of misclassification （minimum NM） using integer programming （IP）. We call this LDF as Revised IP-OLDF. Only this LDF can discriminate the cases on the discriminant hyperplane （Probleml）. This LDF and a hard-margin SVM （H-SVM） can discriminate the lineary separable data （LSD） exactly. Another LDFs may not discriminate the LSD theoretically （Problem2）. When Revised IP-OLDF discriminate the Swiss banknote data with six variables, we find MNM of two-variables model such as （X4, X6） is zero. Because MNMk decreases monotounusly （MNMk 〉= MNM（k＋1））, sixteen MNMs including （X4, X6） are zero. Until now, because there is no research of the LSD, we surveyed another three linear separable data sets such as： 18 exam scores data sets, the Japanese 44 cars data and six microarray datasets. When we discriminate the exam scores with MNM=0, we find the generalized inverse matrix technique causes the serious Problem3 and confirmed this fact by the cars data. At last, we claim the discriminant analysis is not the inferential statistics because there is no standard errors （SEs） of error rates and discriminant coefficients （Problem4）. Therefore, we poroposed the ＂100-fold cross validation for the small sample＂ method （the method）. By this break-through, we can choose the best model having minimum mean of error rate （M2） in the validation sample and obtaine two 95% confidence intervals （CIs） of error rate and discriminant coefficients. When we discriminate the exam scores by this new method, we obtaine the surprising results seven LDFs except for Fisher＇s LDF are almost the same as the trivial LDFs. In this research, we discriminate the Japanese 44 cars data because we can discuss four problems. There are six independent variables to discriminate 29 regular cars and 15 small cars. This data is linear separable by the emission rate （X1） and the number of seats （X3）. We examine the validity of the new model selection procedure of the discriminant analysis. We proposed the model with minimum mean of error rates （M2） in the validation samples is the best model. We had examined this procedure by the exam scores, and we obtain good results. Moreover, the 95% CI of eight LDFs offers us real perception of the discriminant theory. However, the exam scores are different from the ordinal data. Therefore, we apply our theory and procedure to the Japanese 44 cars data and confirmed the same conclution.展开更多
Avoiding excessive enrollment of a single cohort in a clinical trial is prudent in order to avoid imbalances and to prevent one cohort from having a disproportionate influence on the results of a trial and perhaps eve...Avoiding excessive enrollment of a single cohort in a clinical trial is prudent in order to avoid imbalances and to prevent one cohort from having a disproportionate influence on the results of a trial and perhaps even negating positive findings of the clinical trial. Numerical criteria are provided here to evaluate the expected influence of a large cohort as a function of both its size and the relative effect of interventions, in comparison to those of other groups. Measures of expected influence are obtained as a function of the parameters of the distribution of statistics measuring influence. Calculated numerical criteria for the binomial, continuous and time-to-event contexts are presented. Details of the application of this method and sensitivity analyses conducted during the planning stages of a multiple myeloma clinical trial are provided. Numerical criteria are derived under asymptotic conditions and thus results hold for large cohorts. The numerical criteria are easy to compute and are useful tools to assess possible detrimental effects of large cohorts during the design of a study or during enrollment prior to any un-blinding. The numerical criteria allow for a-priori sensitivity analyses of the likely influence of large cohorts under varying conditions.展开更多
Sample size can be a key design feature that not only affects the probability of a trial＇s success but also determines the duration and feasibility of a trial. If an investigational drug is expected to be effective a...Sample size can be a key design feature that not only affects the probability of a trial＇s success but also determines the duration and feasibility of a trial. If an investigational drug is expected to be effective and address unmet medical needs of an orphan disease, where the accrual period may require many years with a large sample size to detect a minimal clinically relevant treatment effect, a minimum sample size may be set to maintain nominal power. In limited situations such as this, there may be a need for flexibility in the initial and final sample sizes; thus, it is useful to consider the utility of adaptive sample size designs that use sample size re-estimation or group sequential design. In this paper, we propose a new adaptive performance measure to consider the utility of an adaptive sample size design in a trial simulation. Considering that previously proposed sample size re-estimation methods do not take into account errors in estimation based on interim results, we propose Bayesian sample size re-estimation criteria that take into account prior information on treatment effect, and then, we assess its operating characteristics in a simulation study. We also present a review example of sample size re-estimation mainly based on published paper and review report in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency （PMDA）.展开更多
This is a brief overview of principles, views and methods, of the Kanban system for the pharmacy of a general hospital. The main goal is the reduction of stores managed by the pharmacy, as well as improvement of the m...This is a brief overview of principles, views and methods, of the Kanban system for the pharmacy of a general hospital. The main goal is the reduction of stores managed by the pharmacy, as well as improvement of the mode of operation. Solutions to problems, such as inadequate storage space, delay in serving patients or clinics and the expiration of various pharmaceutical formulations, stored for so long time, are provided. The philosophy behind the Kanban procurement system and specifically its applicability to a pharmacy underperforming in terms of efficiency, in Greece, are described. Based on the analysis of stock requirement, item stock prices and demand, it is concluded that a significant percentage of the stocked drugs can be procured using the Kanban System. Significant cost savings and operational advantages following the Kanban System will take place. The challenging endeavor is the analysis, design and application of a system that supports the proposed procurement method. Hospital pharmacies in Greece and in other countries that face an economic crisis may largely benefit after using the Kanban System. Moreover, the system is applied on a hospital pharmacy of a 250 bed Greek General Hospital estimating a monetary annual benefit about 50% lower overall cost for medicines and consumable health material.展开更多
The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of c...The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Income Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the System of National accounts. The paper suggests a variant of the capitalization of the Net Operating Income approach to the construction of property price indexes and uses the one hoss shay or light bulb model of depreciation as a model of depreciation for the structure component of a commercial property.展开更多
The present paper aims to show the impact of continuous time calculation on life insurance pricing and reserving in the Algerian context. The discrete time approach allows insurance companies to facilitate calculation...The present paper aims to show the impact of continuous time calculation on life insurance pricing and reserving in the Algerian context. The discrete time approach allows insurance companies to facilitate calculation process but with less accuracy. This approach implies constancy of death quotients during a year. However, the death risk is a continuous function in time. For more accuracy and equity in pricing, calculation needs to consider the exact dates of different payments and also a continuous capitalization process. This gives more adequate premium with fewer hypotheses. This work shows how insurers can propose more adequate pricing using the same actuarial life table.展开更多
The worldwide use of Stevia rebaudiane as substitute sweetener for sugar, increases every year. Stevia rebaudiane is not involved in the insulin mechanism and as so has no calories. This makes Stevia rebaudiane also a...The worldwide use of Stevia rebaudiane as substitute sweetener for sugar, increases every year. Stevia rebaudiane is not involved in the insulin mechanism and as so has no calories. This makes Stevia rebaudiane also a natural substitute for the more common synthetic substitutes for sugar. Various studies show that the plant Stevia rebaudiane contains substances with properties of antioxidant reagent, and as such can prevent antioxidation damage to DNA. [1] In this work protocols for extraction are developed and antioxidating activity tested. The aim was to find optimal conditions for the process, so the antioxidants in the Stevia plant were preserved. Methods used for testing： Redox-titrations and spectrophothometric methods. In all results Vitamin C was used as reference for the antioxidation activity. The results show that the Stevia rebaudiane plant is active as an antioxidant reagent; and that the extent of the antioxidant activity depends on the solvent and on the conditions of the extraction process. In addition there was an attend to measure sweetness of the Stevia rebaudiane plant extract as function of the extraction process.展开更多
The price of Nigeria＇s premium crude, the Bonny light has declined by about 51.8 percent between September 2014 and January 2015. Given that this resource is the major source of revenue for Nigeria, the possible effe...The price of Nigeria＇s premium crude, the Bonny light has declined by about 51.8 percent between September 2014 and January 2015. Given that this resource is the major source of revenue for Nigeria, the possible effects on the economy of these continuing shocks in oil prices are definitely of prime interest in order to predict the effects of a drastic change in oil prices, on the Nigerian economy as a whole. This study investigates the impact of oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy using quarterly time series data from 1985Q2-2014Q3. The study employed GARCH model and a multivariate VAR analysis using impulse response functions and variance decompositions tests to examine the interrelationship among the variables. The impulse response functions show that oil price shocks have immediate and prolonged effect on all the macroeconomic variables considered. Thus, we conclude that oil price shocks have a direct impact on real GDP, total monetary assets and credit to private sector and as such urgent and serious efforts should be made to cut back on government expenditure, increase the tax base, diversify the economy and improve the overall efficiency and scope of other existing non-oil revenue sources, so as to ameliorate the impact of falling oil prices.展开更多
Decent living based on regular and secured earning is one of the fundamentals of prosperous life. For well-being/upliftment of rural poor some of the basic components required are basic education, productive and decen...Decent living based on regular and secured earning is one of the fundamentals of prosperous life. For well-being/upliftment of rural poor some of the basic components required are basic education, productive and decent employment and health care. The amenities of common people＇s life do rotate around these. Due to geophysical and cultural diversities prevailing in our country, the nature and dynamics of development in different States has notable variations. Our rural areas have also progressed and changed but they still need a lot to be provided. To ensure a balanced development in our country we need to lay emphasis on upliftment of the rural and marginalized poor. To accomplish this task government is working in this direction. However, it is still felt that concerted efforts are required on the basis of micro level background information. It could be done by addressing some of statistical and economic issues. The notable among them are percentage of surpluses mobilized from labour saving technological change utilized for essential services such as health, sanitation and education to entertainment and cultural activities; variation in acreage from traditional food crop to cash crop; changing trend, of the prices of agricultural inputs vis-a-vis the cost of agricultural output and use of ground water in cultivation; trend of informal credits in relation to rising cost of cultivation; analysis of the dynamics of welfare Schemes regarding employment, healthcare and basic education etc. Inclusive growth was the cardinal principle of 11 th Five Year Plan of our country. It was further strengthened in 12th Five Year Plan by prefixing faster and sustainable features to it. Therefore, in order to ensure that this basic objective is being fulfilled; it is necessary that along with policy making there should be in-built components of data collection, monitoring and evaluation.展开更多
In this paper, the Small Area methods are presented. We use this method to produce estimates of poverty in Greece, at county （NUTS3） level. This is succeeded by combining survey data from EU-SILC 2013 with auxiliary...In this paper, the Small Area methods are presented. We use this method to produce estimates of poverty in Greece, at county （NUTS3） level. This is succeeded by combining survey data from EU-SILC 2013 with auxiliary data derived from the 2011 Census. In the application section, we adopt the Fay and Herriot model and we provide estimates for the percentage of Greek population under the poverty line in 2013 and also the mean equivalized income. Using Fay and Herriot model the percentages of poverty and the mean equivalized income changed in several areas. Also, the standard deviations of the estimates were improved in all prefectures.展开更多
文摘Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is critical for the effective treatment. Alpha fetoprotein （AFP） serum level is currently used for HCC screening, but the cutoff of the AFP test has limited sensitivity （-50%）, indicating a high false negative rate. We have successfully demonstrated that cancer derived DNA biomarkers can be detected in urine of patients with cancer and can be used for the early detection of cancer （Jain et al., 2015; Lin et al., 2011; Song et al., 2012; Su, Lin, Song, ＆ Jain, 2014; Su, Wang, Norton, Brenner, ＆ Block, 2008）. By combining urine biomarkers （uBMK） values and serum AFP （sAFP） level, a new classification model has been proposed for more efficient HCC screening. Several criterions have been discussed to optimal the cutoff for uBMK score and sAFP score. A joint distribution of sAFP and uBMK with point mass has been fitted using maximum likelihood method. Numerical results show that the sAFP data and uBMK data are very well described by proposed model. A tree-structured sequential test can be optimized by selecting the cutoffs. Bootstrap simulations also show the robust classification results with the optimal cuto~..
文摘Stochastic models are derived to estimate the level of coliform count in terms of MPN index, one of the most important water quality characteristic in ground water based on a set of water source location and soil characteristics. The study is based on about twenty location and soil characteristics, majority of them are observed through laboratory analysis of soil and water samples collected from nearly thee hundred locations of drinking water sources, wells and bore wells selected at random from the district of Kasaragod. The water contamination in wells are found to be relatively more as compared to bore wells. The study reveals that only 7 % of the wells and 40 o~ of the bore wells of the district are within the permissible limit of WHO standard of drinking water quality. The level of contamination is very high in the hospital premises and is very low in the forest area. Two separate multiple ordinal logistic regression models are developed to predict the level of coliform count, one for well and the other for bore well. The significant feature of this study is that in addition to scientifically proving the dependence of the water quality on the distances from waste disposal area and septic tanks etc., it highlights the dependence of two other very significant soil characteristics, the soil organic carbon and soil porosity. The models enable to predict the quality of water in a location based on the set of soil and location characteristics. One of the important uses of the model is in fixing safe locations for waste dump area, septic tank, digging well etc. in town planning, designing residential layouts, industrial layouts, hospital/hostel construction etc. This is the first ever study to describe the ground water quality in terms of the location and soil characteristics.
文摘Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.
文摘Privacy protection for big data linking is discussed here in relation to the Central Statistics Office （CSO）, Ireland＇s, big data linking project titled the ＇Structure of Earnings Survey - Administrative Data Project＇ （SESADP）. The result of the project was the creation of datasets and statistical outputs for the years 2011 to 2014 to meet Eurostat＇s annual earnings statistics requirements and the Structure of Earnings Survey （SES） Regulation. Record linking across the Census and various public sector datasets enabled the necessary information to be acquired to meet the Eurostat earnings requirements. However, the risk of statistical disclosure （i.e. identifying an individual on the dataset） is high unless privacy and confidentiality safe-guards are built into the data matching process. This paper looks at the three methods of linking records on big datasets employed on the SESADP, and how to anonymise the data to protect the identity of the individuals, where potentially disclosive variables exist.
文摘This paper describes how data records can be matched across large datasets using a technique called the Identity Correlation Approach （ICA）. The ICA technique is then compared with a string matching exercise. Both the string matching exercise and the ICA technique were employed for a big data project carried out by the CSO. The project was called the SESADP （Structure of Earnings Survey Administrative Data Project） and involved linking the Irish Census dataset 2011 to a large Public Sector Dataset. The ICA technique provides a mathematical tool to link the datasets and the matching rate for an exact match can be calculated before the matching process begins. Based on the number of variables and the size of the population, the matching rate is calculated in the ICA approach from the MRUI （Matching Rate for Unique Identifier） formula, and false positives are eliminated. No string matching is used in the ICA, therefore names are not required on the dataset, making the data more secure ＆ ensuring confidentiality. The SESADP Project was highly successful using the ICA technique. A comparison of the results using a string matching exercise for the SESADP and the ICA are discussed here.
文摘This paper focuses on time series forecasting of monthly occurrence of fatal road accidents in Ondo State of Nigeria. Its aim, however, is to use time series analysis to analyze the data obtained from Federal Road Safety Corps （FRSC）, Ondo State Command; which was considered in two cases： the total cases reported （TCR） and the number of deaths resulted from accidents （NOD）. Various smoothing models for time series were used to analyze the two cases. Based on the models, predictions were made and the results show a steady increase as a result of long-term effects on road accidents for the two cases. It was found also that simple exponential smoothing model is the appropriate model for both TCR and NOD.
文摘This study made a pioneering attempt to econometrically examine what factors determining impaired financing using shariah committee meetings frequency from data on Islamic banks in Malaysia and how does it affects on the quality of assets. The objective of the study is to improve assessment of their assets quality so as to increase the reliability of the financial statements. The European Central Bank may find the findings from this study useful in their exercise to assess risks and assets quality of their commercial banks, a move to tackle the ailing banks in centralizing oversight supervision in late 2014. The major components of the Islamic banks＇ assets quality are impaired financing and provisions for financing impairment. In the Islamic banks, shariah committee principally manages the shariah risks non-compliance with other risks; however because their management is not straightforward, the study uses the shariah committee meetings frequency as an indicator of the assets quality. The study found the less-than-full frequency of shariah committee meetings resulted in less guidance and conformation of shariah principles, and consequentially the quality of the assets.
文摘The essentialities of crop production forecasting are huge. Crop production forecasts are mainly used to monitor food security and compile Gross Domestic Product. Due to the usefulness of crop production forecasts, this paper uses a Seasonal Regression Model to forecast crop production. Given the fact that one agricultural season differs from another in terms of number of the days, weather conditions （the amount of rains received）, and crop growing conditions as a whole, this paper models agriculture production as function of agriculture season performance. This paper provides cereal crop specification end-of-season production forecasts. Production forecasts in this paper rely on crop production recorded in 32 last agriculture seasons and season performances. In sample production forecasts are evaluated using R2＇ MAPE, and SMAPE. An out sample forecasts for six agricultural seasons ahead were computed for rice time series that satisfy the condition of MAPE and SMAPE less that 10% and which IMAE and ISMAE curves coincide at all fitted points.
文摘We consider a an existence instantaneous new class of fractional integro-differential equations with non instantaneous impulses. We establish theorem for abstract fractional impulsive moments. The results and resolvent operator integro-differential equations with initial conditions under non are obtained by using the fixed point theorem for condensing map
文摘Stem diameter distribution information is useful in forest management planning. Weibull function is flexible, and has been used in characterising diameter distributions, especially in single-species planted stands, the world over. We evaluated some Weibull parameter estimation methods for stem diameter characterisation in （Oban） multi-species Forest in southern Nigeria. Four study sites （Aking, Ekang, Erokut and Ekuri） were selected. Four 2 km-long transects situated at 600 m apart were laid in each location. Five 50m x 50m plots were alternately laid along each transect at 400 m apart （20 plots/location） using systematic sampling technique. Tree growth variables： diameter at breast height （Dbh）, diameters at the base, middle and merchantable limit, total height, merchantable height, stem straightness, crown length and crown diameter were measured on all trees 〉 10 cm to compute model response variables such as mean diameters, basal area and stem volume. Weibull parameters estimation methods used were： moment-based, percentile-based, hybrid and maximum-likelihood （ML）. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, regression models and ANOVA at α0.05. Percentile-based method was the best for Weibull [location （a）, scale （b） and shape （c）] parameters estimations with mLogL = 116.66±21.89, while hybrid method was least-suitable （mLogL = 690.14±128.81） for Weibull parameters estimations. Quadratic mean diameter （Dq） was the only suitable predictor of Weibull parameters in Oban Forest.
文摘There are four serious problems in the discriminant analysis. We developed an optimal linear discriminant function （optimal LDF） based on the minimum number of misclassification （minimum NM） using integer programming （IP）. We call this LDF as Revised IP-OLDF. Only this LDF can discriminate the cases on the discriminant hyperplane （Probleml）. This LDF and a hard-margin SVM （H-SVM） can discriminate the lineary separable data （LSD） exactly. Another LDFs may not discriminate the LSD theoretically （Problem2）. When Revised IP-OLDF discriminate the Swiss banknote data with six variables, we find MNM of two-variables model such as （X4, X6） is zero. Because MNMk decreases monotounusly （MNMk 〉= MNM（k＋1））, sixteen MNMs including （X4, X6） are zero. Until now, because there is no research of the LSD, we surveyed another three linear separable data sets such as： 18 exam scores data sets, the Japanese 44 cars data and six microarray datasets. When we discriminate the exam scores with MNM=0, we find the generalized inverse matrix technique causes the serious Problem3 and confirmed this fact by the cars data. At last, we claim the discriminant analysis is not the inferential statistics because there is no standard errors （SEs） of error rates and discriminant coefficients （Problem4）. Therefore, we poroposed the ＂100-fold cross validation for the small sample＂ method （the method）. By this break-through, we can choose the best model having minimum mean of error rate （M2） in the validation sample and obtaine two 95% confidence intervals （CIs） of error rate and discriminant coefficients. When we discriminate the exam scores by this new method, we obtaine the surprising results seven LDFs except for Fisher＇s LDF are almost the same as the trivial LDFs. In this research, we discriminate the Japanese 44 cars data because we can discuss four problems. There are six independent variables to discriminate 29 regular cars and 15 small cars. This data is linear separable by the emission rate （X1） and the number of seats （X3）. We examine the validity of the new model selection procedure of the discriminant analysis. We proposed the model with minimum mean of error rates （M2） in the validation samples is the best model. We had examined this procedure by the exam scores, and we obtain good results. Moreover, the 95% CI of eight LDFs offers us real perception of the discriminant theory. However, the exam scores are different from the ordinal data. Therefore, we apply our theory and procedure to the Japanese 44 cars data and confirmed the same conclution.
文摘Avoiding excessive enrollment of a single cohort in a clinical trial is prudent in order to avoid imbalances and to prevent one cohort from having a disproportionate influence on the results of a trial and perhaps even negating positive findings of the clinical trial. Numerical criteria are provided here to evaluate the expected influence of a large cohort as a function of both its size and the relative effect of interventions, in comparison to those of other groups. Measures of expected influence are obtained as a function of the parameters of the distribution of statistics measuring influence. Calculated numerical criteria for the binomial, continuous and time-to-event contexts are presented. Details of the application of this method and sensitivity analyses conducted during the planning stages of a multiple myeloma clinical trial are provided. Numerical criteria are derived under asymptotic conditions and thus results hold for large cohorts. The numerical criteria are easy to compute and are useful tools to assess possible detrimental effects of large cohorts during the design of a study or during enrollment prior to any un-blinding. The numerical criteria allow for a-priori sensitivity analyses of the likely influence of large cohorts under varying conditions.
文摘Sample size can be a key design feature that not only affects the probability of a trial＇s success but also determines the duration and feasibility of a trial. If an investigational drug is expected to be effective and address unmet medical needs of an orphan disease, where the accrual period may require many years with a large sample size to detect a minimal clinically relevant treatment effect, a minimum sample size may be set to maintain nominal power. In limited situations such as this, there may be a need for flexibility in the initial and final sample sizes; thus, it is useful to consider the utility of adaptive sample size designs that use sample size re-estimation or group sequential design. In this paper, we propose a new adaptive performance measure to consider the utility of an adaptive sample size design in a trial simulation. Considering that previously proposed sample size re-estimation methods do not take into account errors in estimation based on interim results, we propose Bayesian sample size re-estimation criteria that take into account prior information on treatment effect, and then, we assess its operating characteristics in a simulation study. We also present a review example of sample size re-estimation mainly based on published paper and review report in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency （PMDA）.
文摘This is a brief overview of principles, views and methods, of the Kanban system for the pharmacy of a general hospital. The main goal is the reduction of stores managed by the pharmacy, as well as improvement of the mode of operation. Solutions to problems, such as inadequate storage space, delay in serving patients or clinics and the expiration of various pharmaceutical formulations, stored for so long time, are provided. The philosophy behind the Kanban procurement system and specifically its applicability to a pharmacy underperforming in terms of efficiency, in Greece, are described. Based on the analysis of stock requirement, item stock prices and demand, it is concluded that a significant percentage of the stocked drugs can be procured using the Kanban System. Significant cost savings and operational advantages following the Kanban System will take place. The challenging endeavor is the analysis, design and application of a system that supports the proposed procurement method. Hospital pharmacies in Greece and in other countries that face an economic crisis may largely benefit after using the Kanban System. Moreover, the system is applied on a hospital pharmacy of a 250 bed Greek General Hospital estimating a monetary annual benefit about 50% lower overall cost for medicines and consumable health material.
文摘The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Income Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the System of National accounts. The paper suggests a variant of the capitalization of the Net Operating Income approach to the construction of property price indexes and uses the one hoss shay or light bulb model of depreciation as a model of depreciation for the structure component of a commercial property.
文摘The present paper aims to show the impact of continuous time calculation on life insurance pricing and reserving in the Algerian context. The discrete time approach allows insurance companies to facilitate calculation process but with less accuracy. This approach implies constancy of death quotients during a year. However, the death risk is a continuous function in time. For more accuracy and equity in pricing, calculation needs to consider the exact dates of different payments and also a continuous capitalization process. This gives more adequate premium with fewer hypotheses. This work shows how insurers can propose more adequate pricing using the same actuarial life table.
文摘The worldwide use of Stevia rebaudiane as substitute sweetener for sugar, increases every year. Stevia rebaudiane is not involved in the insulin mechanism and as so has no calories. This makes Stevia rebaudiane also a natural substitute for the more common synthetic substitutes for sugar. Various studies show that the plant Stevia rebaudiane contains substances with properties of antioxidant reagent, and as such can prevent antioxidation damage to DNA. [1] In this work protocols for extraction are developed and antioxidating activity tested. The aim was to find optimal conditions for the process, so the antioxidants in the Stevia plant were preserved. Methods used for testing： Redox-titrations and spectrophothometric methods. In all results Vitamin C was used as reference for the antioxidation activity. The results show that the Stevia rebaudiane plant is active as an antioxidant reagent; and that the extent of the antioxidant activity depends on the solvent and on the conditions of the extraction process. In addition there was an attend to measure sweetness of the Stevia rebaudiane plant extract as function of the extraction process.
文摘The price of Nigeria＇s premium crude, the Bonny light has declined by about 51.8 percent between September 2014 and January 2015. Given that this resource is the major source of revenue for Nigeria, the possible effects on the economy of these continuing shocks in oil prices are definitely of prime interest in order to predict the effects of a drastic change in oil prices, on the Nigerian economy as a whole. This study investigates the impact of oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy using quarterly time series data from 1985Q2-2014Q3. The study employed GARCH model and a multivariate VAR analysis using impulse response functions and variance decompositions tests to examine the interrelationship among the variables. The impulse response functions show that oil price shocks have immediate and prolonged effect on all the macroeconomic variables considered. Thus, we conclude that oil price shocks have a direct impact on real GDP, total monetary assets and credit to private sector and as such urgent and serious efforts should be made to cut back on government expenditure, increase the tax base, diversify the economy and improve the overall efficiency and scope of other existing non-oil revenue sources, so as to ameliorate the impact of falling oil prices.
文摘Decent living based on regular and secured earning is one of the fundamentals of prosperous life. For well-being/upliftment of rural poor some of the basic components required are basic education, productive and decent employment and health care. The amenities of common people＇s life do rotate around these. Due to geophysical and cultural diversities prevailing in our country, the nature and dynamics of development in different States has notable variations. Our rural areas have also progressed and changed but they still need a lot to be provided. To ensure a balanced development in our country we need to lay emphasis on upliftment of the rural and marginalized poor. To accomplish this task government is working in this direction. However, it is still felt that concerted efforts are required on the basis of micro level background information. It could be done by addressing some of statistical and economic issues. The notable among them are percentage of surpluses mobilized from labour saving technological change utilized for essential services such as health, sanitation and education to entertainment and cultural activities; variation in acreage from traditional food crop to cash crop; changing trend, of the prices of agricultural inputs vis-a-vis the cost of agricultural output and use of ground water in cultivation; trend of informal credits in relation to rising cost of cultivation; analysis of the dynamics of welfare Schemes regarding employment, healthcare and basic education etc. Inclusive growth was the cardinal principle of 11 th Five Year Plan of our country. It was further strengthened in 12th Five Year Plan by prefixing faster and sustainable features to it. Therefore, in order to ensure that this basic objective is being fulfilled; it is necessary that along with policy making there should be in-built components of data collection, monitoring and evaluation.
文摘In this paper, the Small Area methods are presented. We use this method to produce estimates of poverty in Greece, at county （NUTS3） level. This is succeeded by combining survey data from EU-SILC 2013 with auxiliary data derived from the 2011 Census. In the application section, we adopt the Fay and Herriot model and we provide estimates for the percentage of Greek population under the poverty line in 2013 and also the mean equivalized income. Using Fay and Herriot model the percentages of poverty and the mean equivalized income changed in several areas. Also, the standard deviations of the estimates were improved in all prefectures.
