Objective:To compare the effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors of the two-rod levonorgestrel implants between the Indoplant and Sinoplant implant brands.Methods:The study was a double-blind,random...Objective:To compare the effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors of the two-rod levonorgestrel implants between the Indoplant and Sinoplant implant brands.Methods:The study was a double-blind,randomized controlled trial at three different centers in Indonesia.A total of 531 participants that met inclusion and exclusion criteria were randomized into two groups,with 264 participants in the Sinoplant group and 267 participants in the Indoplant group.At each center,participants were divided into two groups for Sinoplant and Indoplant.The participants were followed up for 36 months.Four parameters were evaluated:implant effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors.Results:A total of 531 eligible participants were enrolled in this study.Both Sinoplant and Indoplant showed 100%efficacy in preventing pregnancy,with no significant differences in side effects.24.22%of the Sinoplant group and 22.18%of the Indoplant group reported weight changes.8.60%of the Sinoplant group and 9.73%of the Indoplant group reported menstrual changes,and 1.17%of the both groups experienced intermenstrual bleeding.Implant acceptability was 96.61%,with 3.39%dropout rates.Confounding factors such as age,parity,and contraceptive history did not significantly differ between the two groups.Conclusions:Sinoplant and Indoplant did not differ significantly in contraceptive effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors.展开更多
目的:分析广州市免费避孕药具在线领取的时空演变特征,并构建时间序列预测模型,为免费避孕药具“互联网+服务”的资源优化与政策调整提供量化依据。方法:基于2020—2024年广东省免费提供基本避孕药具服务管理系统308419人次在线领取记录...目的:分析广州市免费避孕药具在线领取的时空演变特征,并构建时间序列预测模型,为免费避孕药具“互联网+服务”的资源优化与政策调整提供量化依据。方法:基于2020—2024年广东省免费提供基本避孕药具服务管理系统308419人次在线领取记录,结合常住育龄妇女数据,运用多时间维度趋势分析、空间自相关季节性自回归积分滑动平均模型(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model,SARIMA)、自回归积分滑动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)、指数平滑状态空间模型(exponential smoothing state space model,ETS)、三角季节性Box-Cox变换ARMA误差趋势季节性分量模型(trigonometric,box-cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components model,TBATS)、神经网络自回归模型(neural network autoregression model,NNAR)以及Prophet模型等6种时间序列模型,对广州市11个行政区域的免费避孕药具在线领取进行时空特征分析,并预测2025—2026年月度需求。结果:(1)时序特征:2020—2024年年领取量由40.9万只增至370.2万只(年度复合增长率达65.2%),呈阶梯式攀升;月度分布呈“3月主峰、9月和12月次峰”的季节性;周一因在线领取平台的公众号推文触发,形成周内高峰。(2)空间特征:2020—2024年各区人均领取量均上升,白云区、天河区最高;全局Moran's I持续为负(-0.416~-0.360,P>0.05),无显著聚集,提示药具在线发放能打破地域限制,促进服务均等化。(3)预测模型中SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)[12]在6种模型中精度最高(MAPE=10.85%);广州市的免费避孕药具在线月度申领数量预计从2025年1月的31.68万只逐渐增加到2026年12月的47.69万只,2025年和2026年的预测同比增速分别为20.14%和19.01%,各区均呈稳健增长。结论:广州市在线药具需求呈一定的季节性与持续上升态势,呈现显著的空间分散特征;SARIMA模型适配性强,研究揭示的时空规律为避孕药具精准供应、数字化服务优化提供科学支撑。展开更多
基金supported by PT.Catur Dakwah Crane Pharmacy,an Indonesian pharmaceutical company.The funding was granted through a mutual agreement between the research team and the company,under the coordination of the National Population and Family Planning Board(BKKBN Indonesia).The funder provided financial support only and had no role in the study design,data collection,analysis,interpretation of data,or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
文摘Objective:To compare the effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors of the two-rod levonorgestrel implants between the Indoplant and Sinoplant implant brands.Methods:The study was a double-blind,randomized controlled trial at three different centers in Indonesia.A total of 531 participants that met inclusion and exclusion criteria were randomized into two groups,with 264 participants in the Sinoplant group and 267 participants in the Indoplant group.At each center,participants were divided into two groups for Sinoplant and Indoplant.The participants were followed up for 36 months.Four parameters were evaluated:implant effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors.Results:A total of 531 eligible participants were enrolled in this study.Both Sinoplant and Indoplant showed 100%efficacy in preventing pregnancy,with no significant differences in side effects.24.22%of the Sinoplant group and 22.18%of the Indoplant group reported weight changes.8.60%of the Sinoplant group and 9.73%of the Indoplant group reported menstrual changes,and 1.17%of the both groups experienced intermenstrual bleeding.Implant acceptability was 96.61%,with 3.39%dropout rates.Confounding factors such as age,parity,and contraceptive history did not significantly differ between the two groups.Conclusions:Sinoplant and Indoplant did not differ significantly in contraceptive effectiveness,safety,acceptability,and confounding factors.
文摘目的:分析广州市免费避孕药具在线领取的时空演变特征,并构建时间序列预测模型,为免费避孕药具“互联网+服务”的资源优化与政策调整提供量化依据。方法:基于2020—2024年广东省免费提供基本避孕药具服务管理系统308419人次在线领取记录,结合常住育龄妇女数据,运用多时间维度趋势分析、空间自相关季节性自回归积分滑动平均模型(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model,SARIMA)、自回归积分滑动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)、指数平滑状态空间模型(exponential smoothing state space model,ETS)、三角季节性Box-Cox变换ARMA误差趋势季节性分量模型(trigonometric,box-cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components model,TBATS)、神经网络自回归模型(neural network autoregression model,NNAR)以及Prophet模型等6种时间序列模型,对广州市11个行政区域的免费避孕药具在线领取进行时空特征分析,并预测2025—2026年月度需求。结果:(1)时序特征:2020—2024年年领取量由40.9万只增至370.2万只(年度复合增长率达65.2%),呈阶梯式攀升;月度分布呈“3月主峰、9月和12月次峰”的季节性;周一因在线领取平台的公众号推文触发,形成周内高峰。(2)空间特征:2020—2024年各区人均领取量均上升,白云区、天河区最高;全局Moran's I持续为负(-0.416~-0.360,P>0.05),无显著聚集,提示药具在线发放能打破地域限制,促进服务均等化。(3)预测模型中SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)[12]在6种模型中精度最高(MAPE=10.85%);广州市的免费避孕药具在线月度申领数量预计从2025年1月的31.68万只逐渐增加到2026年12月的47.69万只,2025年和2026年的预测同比增速分别为20.14%和19.01%,各区均呈稳健增长。结论:广州市在线药具需求呈一定的季节性与持续上升态势,呈现显著的空间分散特征;SARIMA模型适配性强,研究揭示的时空规律为避孕药具精准供应、数字化服务优化提供科学支撑。
