【目的】土地利用变化对陆地碳循环具有显著影响。阐明未来气候情景下的大尺度碳平衡及其空间分布,为持续推进碳减排与数字化赋能低碳经济转型提供科学依据。【方法】基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...【目的】土地利用变化对陆地碳循环具有显著影响。阐明未来气候情景下的大尺度碳平衡及其空间分布,为持续推进碳减排与数字化赋能低碳经济转型提供科学依据。【方法】基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathway,SSP)和典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathway,RCP)(以下简称SSP-RCP)土地利用数据耦合生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs,InVEST)模型,采用碳排放系数法、人口权重分配法、生态供需比等方法,揭示了8种SSP-RCP情景下中国2020、2030、2050、2060和2100年的碳排放量、碳储量及碳平衡的空间分布格局与演变趋势。【结果】(1)林地面积在SSP3-RCP7.0情景下增加最多,主要由耕地转化而来,该情景下耕地面积持续减少;草地面积在所有情景中均呈减少趋势,主要转变为裸地;建设用地面积则表现为先增加后趋于平稳。(2)2020—2060年间,各情景碳排放的空间格局总体相似,华东和华中地区为中度至重度碳排放区;除SSP4-RCP3.4情景外,其他情景碳储量均呈增长趋势,仅SSP1-RCP1.9情景在2060年可实现碳中和。(3)研究区固碳服务的供需关系总体不平衡,碳平衡高值区与林地、草地分布格局一致,低值区主要分布在建设用地。(4)各情景下碳平衡均表现出显著的空间正相关,聚类模式基本一致,高/高聚类城市主要分布于西北中部、西南西部及东北北部地区,低/低聚类城市集中于华东、华中、华南及华北和东北南部地区。【结论】区域碳平衡主要受人为碳排放影响。政府应加快经济结构转型,减少化石能源利用,因地制宜发挥区域优势,促进低碳转型发展。展开更多
Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)is a monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal covering research on natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and sustainable development in mountain areas.JMS is sponsored by Inst...Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)is a monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal covering research on natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and sustainable development in mountain areas.JMS is sponsored by Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,supervised by Chinese Academy of Sciences,and published by Science Press and Springer Nature.JMS was launched in 2004 and indexed by SCI in 2007.JMS has a distinctly international character,with editorial board members and scientific editors from over 30 countries(regions)and international organizations,and authors and reviewers from more than 100 countries and regions.展开更多
The Antarctic geodetic datum constitutes a specialized implementation of the modern geodetic reference system within the extreme polar environment.A high-precision,unified,and dynamic Antarctic geodetic datum serves a...The Antarctic geodetic datum constitutes a specialized implementation of the modern geodetic reference system within the extreme polar environment.A high-precision,unified,and dynamic Antarctic geodetic datum serves as critical infrastructure for polar scientific research and engineering safety.This study reviews the composition,current status,and implementation pathways of the Antarctic geodetic datum through four dimensions:coordinate datum,height datum,gravity datum and sounding datum.Preliminary analysis reveals that the development of the Antarctic geodetic datum framework is severely lagging,thereby failing to meet the demands of both scientific expeditions and polar research.To address these challenges,this study proposes an implementation pathway leveraging the 5th International Polar Year(IPY-5)to pioneer regional high-precision geodetic datum in the China’s key research sector covering the area between Amery Ice Shelf and Princess Elizabeth Land,specially highlighting the Prydz Bay–Amery Ice Shelf–Lambert Glacier–Dome A(PANDA)transect,by deploying multi-technique stations andμGal-level superconducting gravimeter networks;and then to integrate multinational observation resources to ultimately establish a high-precision,unified,and dynamic geodetic datum framework.This framework will deliver a spatiotemporal infrastructure for Antarctica to advance the strategic goals of“understanding,protecting,and utilizing Antarctica”.展开更多
Prydz Bay,East Antarctica,is a critical region for studying ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and their role in the global climate system.This review synthesizes the advancements in numerical modeling of physical...Prydz Bay,East Antarctica,is a critical region for studying ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and their role in the global climate system.This review synthesizes the advancements in numerical modeling of physical oceanographic processes in Prydz Bay,highlighting the evolution from early one-dimensional thermodynamic models to contemporary high-resolution,three-dimensional coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf frameworks.We discuss key milestones in understanding processes such as frazil ice dynamics and its impact on the basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf,the pathways and mechanisms of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions,and the dynamic influences of large icebergs on regional circulation.Despite significant progress,challenges remain in integrating multi-component interactions and achieving long-term,high-resolution climate projections.Future efforts should focus on developing fully coupled models that incorporate atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–ice shelf–iceberg interactions,supported by enhanced observational networks and improved computational efficiency.This review underscores the importance of continued modeling advancement to better predict the responses of Antarctic ice shelves and polar climate to global change.展开更多
The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region in East Antarctica constitutes an exceptional geological transect for investigating continental evolution from the Archean to the Phanerozoic and its relationship with sup...The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region in East Antarctica constitutes an exceptional geological transect for investigating continental evolution from the Archean to the Phanerozoic and its relationship with supercontinent cycles.This region preserves a complex record of magmatism,metamorphism,and tectonic reworking.Studies by the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expeditions in this region have yielded critical insights into the geological evolution of Antarctica.Key advances over the past decades encompass the elucidation of the Pan-African and Grenvillian tectono-metamorphic history,the delineation of the continent’s crustal and lithospheric architecture,and the identification of extensive ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism and rare mineral assemblages.Despite these advances,many fundamental questions remain unresolved.The spatial and temporal extents of ancient orogenesis are poorly constrained across different crustal blocks,and the tectonic drivers of extreme metamorphism continue to be debated.The role of deep lithospheric architecture in controlling both past orogenic processes and present-day glacial isostatic adjustment remains underexplored.Furthermore,the origins of ancient cratonic nuclei and their constraints on early Earth geodynamics warrant further investigation.Future research should prioritize integrated,multi-disciplinary approaches that combine geological and geophysical analyses.Key objectives include delineating the architecture and evolution of subglacial basement,reconstructing the Phanerozoic uplift and erosion history of the orogens,and evaluating feedback mechanisms among lithospheric evolution,ice-sheet dynamics,and long-term climate.Holistic cross-disciplinary investigations will be essential to unravel the connections between deep Earth processes and surface systems in one of the planet’s most enigmatic and geologically significant regions.展开更多
Predicting Antarctic sea ice is of substantial academic and practical significance.However,current prediction models,including deep learning(DL)-based models,show notable bias in the marginal ice zone.In this study,we...Predicting Antarctic sea ice is of substantial academic and practical significance.However,current prediction models,including deep learning(DL)-based models,show notable bias in the marginal ice zone.In this study,we developed a pure data-driven DL model for predicting the Antarctic austral summer monthly-to-seasonal sea ice concentration(SIC)by incorporating a novel hybrid sea ice edge constraint loss function(HybridLoss).The model is referred to as ASICNet.Independent testing based on the last five years(2019–23)demonstrates that ASICNet with HybridLoss achieves significantly higher skill metrics than without,with a reduced mean absolute error of 0.021 from 0.022,a reduced integrated ice edge error of 1.714×10^(6)from 1.794×10^(6)km^(2),but an increased pattern correlation coefficient of 0.40 from 0.38,although both ASICNet versions outperform dynamical and statistical models.Furthermore,enhanced heat maps were developed to interpret the predictability sources of sea ice within DL-based models,and the results suggest that the predictability of Antarctic sea ice is attributable to factors like the Antarctic Dipole(ADP),Amundsen Sea Low(ASL),and Southern Ocean sea surface temperature(SST),as revealed in previous studies.Thus,ASICNet is an efficient tool for austral summer Antarctic SIC prediction.展开更多
文摘【目的】土地利用变化对陆地碳循环具有显著影响。阐明未来气候情景下的大尺度碳平衡及其空间分布,为持续推进碳减排与数字化赋能低碳经济转型提供科学依据。【方法】基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathway,SSP)和典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathway,RCP)(以下简称SSP-RCP)土地利用数据耦合生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs,InVEST)模型,采用碳排放系数法、人口权重分配法、生态供需比等方法,揭示了8种SSP-RCP情景下中国2020、2030、2050、2060和2100年的碳排放量、碳储量及碳平衡的空间分布格局与演变趋势。【结果】(1)林地面积在SSP3-RCP7.0情景下增加最多,主要由耕地转化而来,该情景下耕地面积持续减少;草地面积在所有情景中均呈减少趋势,主要转变为裸地;建设用地面积则表现为先增加后趋于平稳。(2)2020—2060年间,各情景碳排放的空间格局总体相似,华东和华中地区为中度至重度碳排放区;除SSP4-RCP3.4情景外,其他情景碳储量均呈增长趋势,仅SSP1-RCP1.9情景在2060年可实现碳中和。(3)研究区固碳服务的供需关系总体不平衡,碳平衡高值区与林地、草地分布格局一致,低值区主要分布在建设用地。(4)各情景下碳平衡均表现出显著的空间正相关,聚类模式基本一致,高/高聚类城市主要分布于西北中部、西南西部及东北北部地区,低/低聚类城市集中于华东、华中、华南及华北和东北南部地区。【结论】区域碳平衡主要受人为碳排放影响。政府应加快经济结构转型,减少化石能源利用,因地制宜发挥区域优势,促进低碳转型发展。
文摘Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)is a monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal covering research on natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and sustainable development in mountain areas.JMS is sponsored by Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,supervised by Chinese Academy of Sciences,and published by Science Press and Springer Nature.JMS was launched in 2004 and indexed by SCI in 2007.JMS has a distinctly international character,with editorial board members and scientific editors from over 30 countries(regions)and international organizations,and authors and reviewers from more than 100 countries and regions.
文摘The Antarctic geodetic datum constitutes a specialized implementation of the modern geodetic reference system within the extreme polar environment.A high-precision,unified,and dynamic Antarctic geodetic datum serves as critical infrastructure for polar scientific research and engineering safety.This study reviews the composition,current status,and implementation pathways of the Antarctic geodetic datum through four dimensions:coordinate datum,height datum,gravity datum and sounding datum.Preliminary analysis reveals that the development of the Antarctic geodetic datum framework is severely lagging,thereby failing to meet the demands of both scientific expeditions and polar research.To address these challenges,this study proposes an implementation pathway leveraging the 5th International Polar Year(IPY-5)to pioneer regional high-precision geodetic datum in the China’s key research sector covering the area between Amery Ice Shelf and Princess Elizabeth Land,specially highlighting the Prydz Bay–Amery Ice Shelf–Lambert Glacier–Dome A(PANDA)transect,by deploying multi-technique stations andμGal-level superconducting gravimeter networks;and then to integrate multinational observation resources to ultimately establish a high-precision,unified,and dynamic geodetic datum framework.This framework will deliver a spatiotemporal infrastructure for Antarctica to advance the strategic goals of“understanding,protecting,and utilizing Antarctica”.
基金supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant nos.SML2021SP306,SML2023SP201)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant no.2024YFF0506603)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.42576020)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation,China(Grant nos.2024A1515012717,2026A1515012241).
文摘Prydz Bay,East Antarctica,is a critical region for studying ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and their role in the global climate system.This review synthesizes the advancements in numerical modeling of physical oceanographic processes in Prydz Bay,highlighting the evolution from early one-dimensional thermodynamic models to contemporary high-resolution,three-dimensional coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf frameworks.We discuss key milestones in understanding processes such as frazil ice dynamics and its impact on the basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf,the pathways and mechanisms of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions,and the dynamic influences of large icebergs on regional circulation.Despite significant progress,challenges remain in integrating multi-component interactions and achieving long-term,high-resolution climate projections.Future efforts should focus on developing fully coupled models that incorporate atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–ice shelf–iceberg interactions,supported by enhanced observational networks and improved computational efficiency.This review underscores the importance of continued modeling advancement to better predict the responses of Antarctic ice shelves and polar climate to global change.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant nos.U2444210,42172068)the Fundamental Research Funds of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences(CAGS)(Grant no.JKYZD202321)geological survey program(Grant no.DD20221810).
文摘The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region in East Antarctica constitutes an exceptional geological transect for investigating continental evolution from the Archean to the Phanerozoic and its relationship with supercontinent cycles.This region preserves a complex record of magmatism,metamorphism,and tectonic reworking.Studies by the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expeditions in this region have yielded critical insights into the geological evolution of Antarctica.Key advances over the past decades encompass the elucidation of the Pan-African and Grenvillian tectono-metamorphic history,the delineation of the continent’s crustal and lithospheric architecture,and the identification of extensive ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism and rare mineral assemblages.Despite these advances,many fundamental questions remain unresolved.The spatial and temporal extents of ancient orogenesis are poorly constrained across different crustal blocks,and the tectonic drivers of extreme metamorphism continue to be debated.The role of deep lithospheric architecture in controlling both past orogenic processes and present-day glacial isostatic adjustment remains underexplored.Furthermore,the origins of ancient cratonic nuclei and their constraints on early Earth geodynamics warrant further investigation.Future research should prioritize integrated,multi-disciplinary approaches that combine geological and geophysical analyses.Key objectives include delineating the architecture and evolution of subglacial basement,reconstructing the Phanerozoic uplift and erosion history of the orogens,and evaluating feedback mechanisms among lithospheric evolution,ice-sheet dynamics,and long-term climate.Holistic cross-disciplinary investigations will be essential to unravel the connections between deep Earth processes and surface systems in one of the planet’s most enigmatic and geologically significant regions.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42376250)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19070402).
文摘Predicting Antarctic sea ice is of substantial academic and practical significance.However,current prediction models,including deep learning(DL)-based models,show notable bias in the marginal ice zone.In this study,we developed a pure data-driven DL model for predicting the Antarctic austral summer monthly-to-seasonal sea ice concentration(SIC)by incorporating a novel hybrid sea ice edge constraint loss function(HybridLoss).The model is referred to as ASICNet.Independent testing based on the last five years(2019–23)demonstrates that ASICNet with HybridLoss achieves significantly higher skill metrics than without,with a reduced mean absolute error of 0.021 from 0.022,a reduced integrated ice edge error of 1.714×10^(6)from 1.794×10^(6)km^(2),but an increased pattern correlation coefficient of 0.40 from 0.38,although both ASICNet versions outperform dynamical and statistical models.Furthermore,enhanced heat maps were developed to interpret the predictability sources of sea ice within DL-based models,and the results suggest that the predictability of Antarctic sea ice is attributable to factors like the Antarctic Dipole(ADP),Amundsen Sea Low(ASL),and Southern Ocean sea surface temperature(SST),as revealed in previous studies.Thus,ASICNet is an efficient tool for austral summer Antarctic SIC prediction.
