Grid forecasting can be used to effectively enhance the spatial and temporal density of forecast products,thereby improving the capability of short-term marine disaster forecasting and warnings in terms of proximity.T...Grid forecasting can be used to effectively enhance the spatial and temporal density of forecast products,thereby improving the capability of short-term marine disaster forecasting and warnings in terms of proximity.The traditional method that relies on forecasters'subjective correction of station observation data for forecasting has been unable to meet the practical needs of refined forecasting.To address this problem,this paper proposes a Transformer-enhanced UNet(TransUNet)model for wave forecast AI correction,which fuses wind and wave information.The Transformer structure is integrated into the encoder of the UNet model,and instead of using the traditional upsampling method,the dual-sampling module is employed in the decoder to enhance the feature extraction capability.This paper compares the TransUNet model with the traditional UNet model using wind speed forecast data,wave height forecast data,and significant wave height reanalysis data provided by ECMWF.The experimental results indicate that the TransUNet model yields smaller root-meansquare errors,mean errors,and standard deviations of the corrected results for the next 24-h forecasts than does the UNet model.Specifically,the root-mean-square error decreased by more than 21.55%compared to its precorrection value.According to the statistical analysis,87.81%of the corrected wave height errors for the next 24-h forecast were within±0.2m,with only 4.56%falling beyond±0.3 m.This model effectively limits the error range and enhances the ability to forecast wave heights.展开更多
Accurate significant wave height(SWH)prediction is essential for the development and utilization of wave energy.Deep learning methods such as recurrent and convolutional neural networks have achieved good results in S...Accurate significant wave height(SWH)prediction is essential for the development and utilization of wave energy.Deep learning methods such as recurrent and convolutional neural networks have achieved good results in SWH forecasting.However,these methods do not adapt well to dynamic seasonal variations in wave data.In this study,we propose a novel method—the spatiotemporal dynamic graph(STDG)neural network.This method predicts the SWH of multiple nodes based on dynamic graph modeling and multi-characteristic fusion.First,considering the dynamic seasonal variations in the wave direction over time,the network models wave dynamic spatial dependencies from long-and short-term pattern perspectives.Second,to correlate multiple characteristics with SWH,the network introduces a cross-characteristic transformer to effectively fuse multiple characteristics.Finally,we conducted experiments on two datasets from the South China Sea and East China Sea to validate the proposed method and compared it with five prediction methods in the three categories.The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves the best performance at all predictive scales and has greater advantages for extreme value prediction.Furthermore,an analysis of the dynamic graph shows that the proposed method captures the seasonal variation mechanism of the waves.展开更多
2016年,欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)被WMO基础系统委员会(CBS)指定为海浪预报验证牵头中心(Lead Centre for Wave Forecast Verification,LC-WFV)。LC-WFV通过收集和分析各种海浪观测数据,与海浪预报模型的输出进行比较,以评估海浪预...2016年,欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)被WMO基础系统委员会(CBS)指定为海浪预报验证牵头中心(Lead Centre for Wave Forecast Verification,LC-WFV)。LC-WFV通过收集和分析各种海浪观测数据,与海浪预报模型的输出进行比较,以评估海浪预报的准确性和可靠性。其工作对于提高海浪预报的质量、保障海上安全和海洋经济活动的顺利进行具有重要意义。展开更多
基金supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.SML2023SP214)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62071279 and 42206029)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608804)。
文摘Grid forecasting can be used to effectively enhance the spatial and temporal density of forecast products,thereby improving the capability of short-term marine disaster forecasting and warnings in terms of proximity.The traditional method that relies on forecasters'subjective correction of station observation data for forecasting has been unable to meet the practical needs of refined forecasting.To address this problem,this paper proposes a Transformer-enhanced UNet(TransUNet)model for wave forecast AI correction,which fuses wind and wave information.The Transformer structure is integrated into the encoder of the UNet model,and instead of using the traditional upsampling method,the dual-sampling module is employed in the decoder to enhance the feature extraction capability.This paper compares the TransUNet model with the traditional UNet model using wind speed forecast data,wave height forecast data,and significant wave height reanalysis data provided by ECMWF.The experimental results indicate that the TransUNet model yields smaller root-meansquare errors,mean errors,and standard deviations of the corrected results for the next 24-h forecasts than does the UNet model.Specifically,the root-mean-square error decreased by more than 21.55%compared to its precorrection value.According to the statistical analysis,87.81%of the corrected wave height errors for the next 24-h forecast were within±0.2m,with only 4.56%falling beyond±0.3 m.This model effectively limits the error range and enhances the ability to forecast wave heights.
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2021YFC3101604。
文摘Accurate significant wave height(SWH)prediction is essential for the development and utilization of wave energy.Deep learning methods such as recurrent and convolutional neural networks have achieved good results in SWH forecasting.However,these methods do not adapt well to dynamic seasonal variations in wave data.In this study,we propose a novel method—the spatiotemporal dynamic graph(STDG)neural network.This method predicts the SWH of multiple nodes based on dynamic graph modeling and multi-characteristic fusion.First,considering the dynamic seasonal variations in the wave direction over time,the network models wave dynamic spatial dependencies from long-and short-term pattern perspectives.Second,to correlate multiple characteristics with SWH,the network introduces a cross-characteristic transformer to effectively fuse multiple characteristics.Finally,we conducted experiments on two datasets from the South China Sea and East China Sea to validate the proposed method and compared it with five prediction methods in the three categories.The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves the best performance at all predictive scales and has greater advantages for extreme value prediction.Furthermore,an analysis of the dynamic graph shows that the proposed method captures the seasonal variation mechanism of the waves.
文摘2016年,欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)被WMO基础系统委员会(CBS)指定为海浪预报验证牵头中心(Lead Centre for Wave Forecast Verification,LC-WFV)。LC-WFV通过收集和分析各种海浪观测数据,与海浪预报模型的输出进行比较,以评估海浪预报的准确性和可靠性。其工作对于提高海浪预报的质量、保障海上安全和海洋经济活动的顺利进行具有重要意义。
