Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
Physics-informed neural networks(PINNs),as a novel artificial intelligence method for solving partial differential equations,are applicable to solve both forward and inverse problems.This study evaluates the performan...Physics-informed neural networks(PINNs),as a novel artificial intelligence method for solving partial differential equations,are applicable to solve both forward and inverse problems.This study evaluates the performance of PINNs in solving the temperature diffusion equation of the seawater across six scenarios,including forward and inverse problems under three different boundary conditions.Results demonstrate that PINNs achieved consistently higher accuracy with the Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions compared to the Robin boundary condition for both forward and inverse problems.Inaccurate weighting of terms in the loss function can reduce model accuracy.Additionally,the sensitivity of model performance to the positioning of sampling points varied between different boundary conditions.In particular,the model under the Dirichlet boundary condition exhibited superior robustness to variations in point positions during the solutions of inverse problems.In contrast,for the Neumann and Robin boundary conditions,accuracy declines when points were sampled from identical positions or at the same time.Subsequently,the Argo observations were used to reconstruct the vertical diffusion of seawater temperature in the north-central Pacific for the applicability of PINNs in the real ocean.The PINNs successfully captured the vertical diffusion characteristics of seawater temperature,reflected the seasonal changes of vertical temperature under different topographic conditions,and revealed the influence of topography on the temperature diffusion coefficient.The PINNs were proved effective in solving the temperature diffusion equation of seawater with limited data,providing a promising technique for simulating or predicting ocean phenomena using sparse observations.展开更多
Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the...Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.展开更多
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的全球大气再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局提供的高分辨率海表温度逐日数据集和最佳路径数据集(the international best track archive for climate stewardship,IBTrACS)等资料,采用WRF(weather re...利用欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的全球大气再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局提供的高分辨率海表温度逐日数据集和最佳路径数据集(the international best track archive for climate stewardship,IBTrACS)等资料,采用WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式,对2022年第11号台风“轩岚诺”在东海黑潮快速增强的原因进行了诊断分析和数值模拟研究。结果表明,台风快速增强期间其中心处于东海黑潮主轴上,此时台风中心远离高空槽和高空急流,环境风垂直切变在增强时段维持在较高水平,超过8 m·s^(-1),均不利于台风增强,而东海黑潮区海表温度异常达到1~3℃,为台风发展提供大量热通量,同时26℃等温线深度达85~110 m,0~250 m深度范围内海水温度异常在台风快速增强前达2.5℃左右,表明上层海洋热含量丰富,有助于抑制台风经过引起的冷却作用。因此,东海黑潮区显著的海表温度暖异常和海洋上层热含量正异常对台风的快速增强起了关键作用。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFC3008200)the Independent Research Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(No.SML2022SP505)。
文摘Physics-informed neural networks(PINNs),as a novel artificial intelligence method for solving partial differential equations,are applicable to solve both forward and inverse problems.This study evaluates the performance of PINNs in solving the temperature diffusion equation of the seawater across six scenarios,including forward and inverse problems under three different boundary conditions.Results demonstrate that PINNs achieved consistently higher accuracy with the Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions compared to the Robin boundary condition for both forward and inverse problems.Inaccurate weighting of terms in the loss function can reduce model accuracy.Additionally,the sensitivity of model performance to the positioning of sampling points varied between different boundary conditions.In particular,the model under the Dirichlet boundary condition exhibited superior robustness to variations in point positions during the solutions of inverse problems.In contrast,for the Neumann and Robin boundary conditions,accuracy declines when points were sampled from identical positions or at the same time.Subsequently,the Argo observations were used to reconstruct the vertical diffusion of seawater temperature in the north-central Pacific for the applicability of PINNs in the real ocean.The PINNs successfully captured the vertical diffusion characteristics of seawater temperature,reflected the seasonal changes of vertical temperature under different topographic conditions,and revealed the influence of topography on the temperature diffusion coefficient.The PINNs were proved effective in solving the temperature diffusion equation of seawater with limited data,providing a promising technique for simulating or predicting ocean phenomena using sparse observations.
基金jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number-ber 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294]the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]。
文摘Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.
文摘利用欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的全球大气再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局提供的高分辨率海表温度逐日数据集和最佳路径数据集(the international best track archive for climate stewardship,IBTrACS)等资料,采用WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式,对2022年第11号台风“轩岚诺”在东海黑潮快速增强的原因进行了诊断分析和数值模拟研究。结果表明,台风快速增强期间其中心处于东海黑潮主轴上,此时台风中心远离高空槽和高空急流,环境风垂直切变在增强时段维持在较高水平,超过8 m·s^(-1),均不利于台风增强,而东海黑潮区海表温度异常达到1~3℃,为台风发展提供大量热通量,同时26℃等温线深度达85~110 m,0~250 m深度范围内海水温度异常在台风快速增强前达2.5℃左右,表明上层海洋热含量丰富,有助于抑制台风经过引起的冷却作用。因此,东海黑潮区显著的海表温度暖异常和海洋上层热含量正异常对台风的快速增强起了关键作用。
