Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and ...Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and reanalysis data(MERRA-2)from March 2007 to February 2015(eight years).The horizontal distribution reveals lower cirrus fraction values in the northern SCS and higher values in the southern region,with minima observed in March and April and maxima sequentially occurring in August(northern SCS,NSCS),September(middle SCS,MSCS),and December(southern SCS,SSCS).Vertically,the cirrus fraction peaks in summer and reaches its lowest levels in spring.Opaque cirrus dominates during summer in the NSCS and MSCS,comprising 53.6%and 55.9%,respectively,while the SSCS exhibits a higher frequency of opaque cirrus relative to other cloud types.Subvisible cirrus clouds have the lowest frequency year-round,whereas thin cirrus is most prominent in winter in the NSCS(46.3%)and in spring in the MSCS(45.3%).A case study from September 2021 further explores the influence of ice crystal habits on brightness temperature(BT)over the SCS.Simulations utilizing five ice crystal shapes from the ARTS DDA(Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator Discrete Dipole Approximation)database and the RTTOV 12.4 radiative transfer model reveal that the 8-column-aggregate shape best represents BT in the NSCS and SSCS,while the large-block-aggregate shape performs better in the SSCS.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42027804,41775026,and 41075012)。
文摘Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and reanalysis data(MERRA-2)from March 2007 to February 2015(eight years).The horizontal distribution reveals lower cirrus fraction values in the northern SCS and higher values in the southern region,with minima observed in March and April and maxima sequentially occurring in August(northern SCS,NSCS),September(middle SCS,MSCS),and December(southern SCS,SSCS).Vertically,the cirrus fraction peaks in summer and reaches its lowest levels in spring.Opaque cirrus dominates during summer in the NSCS and MSCS,comprising 53.6%and 55.9%,respectively,while the SSCS exhibits a higher frequency of opaque cirrus relative to other cloud types.Subvisible cirrus clouds have the lowest frequency year-round,whereas thin cirrus is most prominent in winter in the NSCS(46.3%)and in spring in the MSCS(45.3%).A case study from September 2021 further explores the influence of ice crystal habits on brightness temperature(BT)over the SCS.Simulations utilizing five ice crystal shapes from the ARTS DDA(Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator Discrete Dipole Approximation)database and the RTTOV 12.4 radiative transfer model reveal that the 8-column-aggregate shape best represents BT in the NSCS and SSCS,while the large-block-aggregate shape performs better in the SSCS.
