随着全球变暖,复合型气候事件的发生特征逐渐成为近年来研究的热点。本研究采用第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心(The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)全球气候大气再分析(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)数据中包含...随着全球变暖,复合型气候事件的发生特征逐渐成为近年来研究的热点。本研究采用第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心(The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)全球气候大气再分析(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)数据中包含的日最高温和日降水数据分析了中国1982—2022年复合干热和湿热事件的发生特征,并引入了震级指数衡量复合事件的强度,结果显示复合事件的持续时间、频次和震级均显示不同程度的增长,其中复合湿热事件(CHTRE)的增长幅度均高于复合干热事件(CHTDE);极端型复合干热和湿热事件上升趋势最为明显(分别为0.24%和0.11%),高温主导了复合事件的变化趋势;6—8月是中国复合干热/复合湿热事件发生的主要月份,其中极端型复合事件多集中在7月。由于极端事件可能会随着全球持续变暖而增加,因此了解复合事件的发生特征对于增强中国抵御气候变化影响的能力至关重要。展开更多
The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain....The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.展开更多
Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diver...Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.展开更多
文摘随着全球变暖,复合型气候事件的发生特征逐渐成为近年来研究的热点。本研究采用第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心(The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)全球气候大气再分析(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)数据中包含的日最高温和日降水数据分析了中国1982—2022年复合干热和湿热事件的发生特征,并引入了震级指数衡量复合事件的强度,结果显示复合事件的持续时间、频次和震级均显示不同程度的增长,其中复合湿热事件(CHTRE)的增长幅度均高于复合干热事件(CHTDE);极端型复合干热和湿热事件上升趋势最为明显(分别为0.24%和0.11%),高温主导了复合事件的变化趋势;6—8月是中国复合干热/复合湿热事件发生的主要月份,其中极端型复合事件多集中在7月。由于极端事件可能会随着全球持续变暖而增加,因此了解复合事件的发生特征对于增强中国抵御气候变化影响的能力至关重要。
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(Grant No.CE230100012)。
文摘The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.
基金supported by the Laoshan Laboratory[grant number LSKJ202202403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42030410]+1 种基金additionally supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUISTJiangsu Innovation Research Group[grant number JSSCTD202346]。
文摘Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.
