This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the So...This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.展开更多
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江...利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江中下游地区的温度异常为1.52℃、为近40年来最高,温度正异常的极大值位于河南和湖北两省交界处的西侧。热带印度洋和太平洋海温异常引起了长江中下游约0.39℃的增温,对长江中下游地区此次高温异常的贡献为25.66%。La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件可通过增强西太平洋副热带高压,进而有利于维持长江中下游地区的异常下沉运动,为高温事件的发生提供了有利条件。展开更多
北极东北航道起始段海域位于我国黄渤海,大风和强降水是可能威胁到该海域航运安全的主要灾害性天气类型。其中寒潮天气过程伴随的冷空气大风以及热带气旋、温带气旋等天气系统产生的大风、强降水等灾害性天气,对该海域航运安全造成很大...北极东北航道起始段海域位于我国黄渤海,大风和强降水是可能威胁到该海域航运安全的主要灾害性天气类型。其中寒潮天气过程伴随的冷空气大风以及热带气旋、温带气旋等天气系统产生的大风、强降水等灾害性天气,对该海域航运安全造成很大影响。利用1991—2020年美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)全球逐日再分析资料,分析了北极东北航道适航期(7—10月)Rossby波沿高空急流能量传播特征及其对北极东北航道起始段海域天气的影响,特别是对强降水的影响。结果表明:(1)沿北半球副热带地区250hPa高空西风急流轴经向风表现为纬向三波型准静止的Rossby波形态;(2)高空250hPa大气准静止Rossby波波源位于地中海地区,波动在此激发并沿急流向东传播,传播过程中波动能量耗散,但波源即地中海地区能量的不断注入,使其得以维持和加强;(3)波作用通量散度指数与北极东北航道起始段海域降水量、风速相关系数绝对值达0.5以上,其中位于我国东北部至鄂霍茨克海地区的波作用通量指数与降水量和风速相关系数的绝对值均接近0.9,属于强相关,说明Rossby波沿高空急流传播时能量汇集、加强,对北极东北航道起始段海域的降水量、风速影响较大,从而可触发强降水、大风等灾害性天气;(4)当Rossby波扰动偏强时,向下游传播能量偏强,则西风急流加强,垂直上升运动增强,导致北极东北航道起始段海域降水异常偏多。展开更多
To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simu...To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175018, 42175020)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2023B1212060019)+1 种基金Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(311024001)Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)。
文摘This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.
文摘利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江中下游地区的温度异常为1.52℃、为近40年来最高,温度正异常的极大值位于河南和湖北两省交界处的西侧。热带印度洋和太平洋海温异常引起了长江中下游约0.39℃的增温,对长江中下游地区此次高温异常的贡献为25.66%。La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件可通过增强西太平洋副热带高压,进而有利于维持长江中下游地区的异常下沉运动,为高温事件的发生提供了有利条件。
文摘北极东北航道起始段海域位于我国黄渤海,大风和强降水是可能威胁到该海域航运安全的主要灾害性天气类型。其中寒潮天气过程伴随的冷空气大风以及热带气旋、温带气旋等天气系统产生的大风、强降水等灾害性天气,对该海域航运安全造成很大影响。利用1991—2020年美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)全球逐日再分析资料,分析了北极东北航道适航期(7—10月)Rossby波沿高空急流能量传播特征及其对北极东北航道起始段海域天气的影响,特别是对强降水的影响。结果表明:(1)沿北半球副热带地区250hPa高空西风急流轴经向风表现为纬向三波型准静止的Rossby波形态;(2)高空250hPa大气准静止Rossby波波源位于地中海地区,波动在此激发并沿急流向东传播,传播过程中波动能量耗散,但波源即地中海地区能量的不断注入,使其得以维持和加强;(3)波作用通量散度指数与北极东北航道起始段海域降水量、风速相关系数绝对值达0.5以上,其中位于我国东北部至鄂霍茨克海地区的波作用通量指数与降水量和风速相关系数的绝对值均接近0.9,属于强相关,说明Rossby波沿高空急流传播时能量汇集、加强,对北极东北航道起始段海域的降水量、风速影响较大,从而可触发强降水、大风等灾害性天气;(4)当Rossby波扰动偏强时,向下游传播能量偏强,则西风急流加强,垂直上升运动增强,导致北极东北航道起始段海域降水异常偏多。
基金supported by the Chinese-Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project BASIC (Grant No.325440)the Horizon 2020 project APPLICATE (Grant No.727862)High-performance computing and storage resources were performed on resources provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High-Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway (through projects NS8121K,NN8121K,NN2345K,NS2345K,NS9560K,NS9252K,and NS9034K)。
文摘To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.
