基于多普勒天气雷达资料、ERA5再分析资料与地面自动站观测资料,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式、雷达径向风质控及三维变分同化系统(GSI)循环同化对2021年4月30日江苏南通的一次雷暴大风过程进行数值模拟研究,对比分...基于多普勒天气雷达资料、ERA5再分析资料与地面自动站观测资料,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式、雷达径向风质控及三维变分同化系统(GSI)循环同化对2021年4月30日江苏南通的一次雷暴大风过程进行数值模拟研究,对比分析不同试验方案模拟的雷达反射率、风场与热动力的时空演变和结构特征。结果表明:逐30 min循环同化的Exp3方案较未同化和非临近循环同化方案模拟效果有较好提升,表明循环同化和增加频次有效改善了初始场;UNRAVEL退模糊算法质控有效消除了速度模糊,退模糊处理雷达资料后循环同化方案(Exp4)对此次雷暴大风的雷达反射率和地面风场模拟结果有显著调整,其相应特征和演变趋势与观测基本一致,表明UNRAVEL退模糊质控后循环同化更好的改善了初始场;从热动力场结果来看,Exp4方案动热力结构改善较明显,上层辐散下层辐合,存在“冷—暖—冷”的热动力结构,伴随着强烈上升运动、北高南低的气压分布和强垂直风切变,有助于下沉气流将中高层的水平动量向近地面底层传递,从而激发此次雷暴大风。展开更多
By using the numerical and dynamical methods, the influence and restriction of the heat source forcing on the subtropical geopotential fields and flow fields are studied and discussed in a model atmosphere. The main r...By using the numerical and dynamical methods, the influence and restriction of the heat source forcing on the subtropical geopotential fields and flow fields are studied and discussed in a model atmosphere. The main results show that the zonal symmetrical solar radiation heating chief-ly induces the geopotential field changing gradually and leads the subtropical high moving slowly, but when the zonal asymmetric thermal difference between ocean and continent achieves its critical value, which usually causes the geopotential field a catastrophe, and consequently induces the subtropical high shake-up or jump. The abnormal activity of the subtropical high is possibly caused by the abnormality of the thermal factor. Key words Subtropical high - Thermal forcing Supported by National Natural Science Foundation (No. 49975012) and National ’ 973’ Key Program (No. G1998040907).展开更多
Seasonal heating load time sequence has the double trends of increasing and fluctuating, so it''s difficult to select a model to forecast it. In this paper, a combined model of gray model and artificial neural...Seasonal heating load time sequence has the double trends of increasing and fluctuating, so it''s difficult to select a model to forecast it. In this paper, a combined model of gray model and artificial neural network model was presented to forecast seasonal heating load. A concrete model was established and was verified through actual examples.展开更多
文摘基于多普勒天气雷达资料、ERA5再分析资料与地面自动站观测资料,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式、雷达径向风质控及三维变分同化系统(GSI)循环同化对2021年4月30日江苏南通的一次雷暴大风过程进行数值模拟研究,对比分析不同试验方案模拟的雷达反射率、风场与热动力的时空演变和结构特征。结果表明:逐30 min循环同化的Exp3方案较未同化和非临近循环同化方案模拟效果有较好提升,表明循环同化和增加频次有效改善了初始场;UNRAVEL退模糊算法质控有效消除了速度模糊,退模糊处理雷达资料后循环同化方案(Exp4)对此次雷暴大风的雷达反射率和地面风场模拟结果有显著调整,其相应特征和演变趋势与观测基本一致,表明UNRAVEL退模糊质控后循环同化更好的改善了初始场;从热动力场结果来看,Exp4方案动热力结构改善较明显,上层辐散下层辐合,存在“冷—暖—冷”的热动力结构,伴随着强烈上升运动、北高南低的气压分布和强垂直风切变,有助于下沉气流将中高层的水平动量向近地面底层传递,从而激发此次雷暴大风。
文摘By using the numerical and dynamical methods, the influence and restriction of the heat source forcing on the subtropical geopotential fields and flow fields are studied and discussed in a model atmosphere. The main results show that the zonal symmetrical solar radiation heating chief-ly induces the geopotential field changing gradually and leads the subtropical high moving slowly, but when the zonal asymmetric thermal difference between ocean and continent achieves its critical value, which usually causes the geopotential field a catastrophe, and consequently induces the subtropical high shake-up or jump. The abnormal activity of the subtropical high is possibly caused by the abnormality of the thermal factor. Key words Subtropical high - Thermal forcing Supported by National Natural Science Foundation (No. 49975012) and National ’ 973’ Key Program (No. G1998040907).
文摘Seasonal heating load time sequence has the double trends of increasing and fluctuating, so it''s difficult to select a model to forecast it. In this paper, a combined model of gray model and artificial neural network model was presented to forecast seasonal heating load. A concrete model was established and was verified through actual examples.
