In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillati...In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on winter-spring AR activities in East Asia.The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR ac-tivity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects,and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions.At the onset of El Niño,enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific,and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.With a three-month lag,the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity,but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China.The mid-to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics,initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence(double-rapid-flow effect)and later modulated by the Pacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge,which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold-warm airmass convergence.Overall,El Niño promotes the development of low-and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia,while La Niña promotes(maritime continental)AR activity in the tropics.This study establishes the“ENSO teleconnection→circulation adjust-ment→East Asian AR response”chain,revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity,and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Clouds play an important role in global atmospheric energy and water vapor budgets, and the low cloud simulations suffer from large biases in many atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, cloud microphys...Clouds play an important role in global atmospheric energy and water vapor budgets, and the low cloud simulations suffer from large biases in many atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, cloud microphysical processes such as raindrop evaporation and cloud water accretion in a double-moment six-class cloud microphysics scheme were revised to enhance the simulation of low clouds using the Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System(GRIST)model. The validation of the revised scheme using a single-column version of the GRIST demonstrated a reasonable reduction in liquid water biases. The revised parameterization simulated medium-and low-level cloud fractions that were in better agreement with the observations than the original scheme. Long-term global simulations indicate the mitigation of the originally overestimated low-level cloud fraction and cloud-water mixing ratio in mid-to high-latitude regions,primarily owing to enhanced accretion processes and weakened raindrop evaporation. The reduced low clouds with the revised scheme showed better consistency with satellite observations, particularly at mid-and high-latitudes. Further improvements can be observed in the simulated cloud shortwave radiative forcing and vertical distribution of total cloud cover. Annual precipitation in mid-latitude regions has also improved, particularly over the oceans, with significantly increased large-scale and decreased convective precipitation.展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between atmospheric stratification (i.e., static stability given by N^(2)) and the vertical energy transfer of stationary planetary waves, and further illustrates the underlyin...This study investigates the relationship between atmospheric stratification (i.e., static stability given by N^(2)) and the vertical energy transfer of stationary planetary waves, and further illustrates the underlying physical mechanism. Specifically, for the simplified case of constant stratospheric N^(2), the refractive index square of planetary waves has a theoretical tendency to increase first and then decrease with an increased N^(2), whereas the group velocity weakens. Mechanistically, this behavior can be understood as an intensified suppression of vertical isentropic surface displacement caused by meridional heat transport of planetary waves under strong N^(2) conditions. Observational analysis corroborates this finding, demonstrating a reduction in the vertical-propagation velocity of waves with increased N^(2). A linear, quasi- geostrophic, mid-latitude beta-plane model with a constant background westerly wind and a prescribed N^(2) applicable to the stratosphere is used to obtain analytic solutions. In this model, the planetary waves are initiated by steady energy influx from the lower boundary. The analysis indicates that under strong N^(2) conditions, the amplitude of planetary waves can be sufficiently increased by the effective energy convergence due to the slowing vertical energy transfer, resulting in a streamfunction response in this model that contains more energy. For N^(2) with a quasi-linear vertical variation, the results bear a resemblance to the constant case, except that the wave amplitude and oscillating frequency show some vertical variations.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41830964]the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province[grant number 2023JJ40666]。
文摘In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on winter-spring AR activities in East Asia.The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR ac-tivity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects,and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions.At the onset of El Niño,enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific,and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.With a three-month lag,the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity,but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China.The mid-to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics,initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence(double-rapid-flow effect)and later modulated by the Pacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge,which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold-warm airmass convergence.Overall,El Niño promotes the development of low-and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia,while La Niña promotes(maritime continental)AR activity in the tropics.This study establishes the“ENSO teleconnection→circulation adjust-ment→East Asian AR response”chain,revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity,and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375153,42105153,42205157)Development of Science and Technology at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2023KJ038)。
文摘Clouds play an important role in global atmospheric energy and water vapor budgets, and the low cloud simulations suffer from large biases in many atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, cloud microphysical processes such as raindrop evaporation and cloud water accretion in a double-moment six-class cloud microphysics scheme were revised to enhance the simulation of low clouds using the Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System(GRIST)model. The validation of the revised scheme using a single-column version of the GRIST demonstrated a reasonable reduction in liquid water biases. The revised parameterization simulated medium-and low-level cloud fractions that were in better agreement with the observations than the original scheme. Long-term global simulations indicate the mitigation of the originally overestimated low-level cloud fraction and cloud-water mixing ratio in mid-to high-latitude regions,primarily owing to enhanced accretion processes and weakened raindrop evaporation. The reduced low clouds with the revised scheme showed better consistency with satellite observations, particularly at mid-and high-latitudes. Further improvements can be observed in the simulated cloud shortwave radiative forcing and vertical distribution of total cloud cover. Annual precipitation in mid-latitude regions has also improved, particularly over the oceans, with significantly increased large-scale and decreased convective precipitation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42261134532,42405059,and U2342212)。
文摘This study investigates the relationship between atmospheric stratification (i.e., static stability given by N^(2)) and the vertical energy transfer of stationary planetary waves, and further illustrates the underlying physical mechanism. Specifically, for the simplified case of constant stratospheric N^(2), the refractive index square of planetary waves has a theoretical tendency to increase first and then decrease with an increased N^(2), whereas the group velocity weakens. Mechanistically, this behavior can be understood as an intensified suppression of vertical isentropic surface displacement caused by meridional heat transport of planetary waves under strong N^(2) conditions. Observational analysis corroborates this finding, demonstrating a reduction in the vertical-propagation velocity of waves with increased N^(2). A linear, quasi- geostrophic, mid-latitude beta-plane model with a constant background westerly wind and a prescribed N^(2) applicable to the stratosphere is used to obtain analytic solutions. In this model, the planetary waves are initiated by steady energy influx from the lower boundary. The analysis indicates that under strong N^(2) conditions, the amplitude of planetary waves can be sufficiently increased by the effective energy convergence due to the slowing vertical energy transfer, resulting in a streamfunction response in this model that contains more energy. For N^(2) with a quasi-linear vertical variation, the results bear a resemblance to the constant case, except that the wave amplitude and oscillating frequency show some vertical variations.
