China’s coastal regions,characterized by dense populations and industrial agglomeration,face escalating threats from typhoon disasters.Understanding the evolution of socio-economic exposure to future typhoon landfall...China’s coastal regions,characterized by dense populations and industrial agglomeration,face escalating threats from typhoon disasters.Understanding the evolution of socio-economic exposure to future typhoon landfalls under global change is critical for effective disaster risk management.This study utilizes future typhoon track data simulated by the regional climate model version 4(RegCM4),combined with projected population and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)data for China’s coastal regions under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs:SSP1,sustainability;SSP2,middle of the road;SSP5,fossil-fueled development).We analyze typhoon impact zones for future periods(2030s,2050s,and 2090s)under Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs:RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,representing low,medium,and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios,respectively).Exposure levels for 2030,2050,and 2100 are calculated based on the annual average frequency of typhoon impacts during these periods,aiming to quantify the distribution characteristics of typhoon-affected population and GDP in China’s coastal regions.Key findings reveal two high-frequency typhoon im-pact zones:the Taiwan Strait region and the northern Qiongzhou Strait region.Furthermore,under RCP2.6,typhoon impacts may ex-tend to Liaoning,while RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate potential impacts reaching further north to Heilongjiang.Under RCP4.5,Northeast China will experience the largest typhoon-affected area(43.800×10^(4) km^(2))by the 2030s.High population and GDP exposure concentrates in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,and the Taiwan Strait coastal areas.Notably,Liaoning’s cumulative ex-posed population may exceed 0.100×10^(8) by 2030 and 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to typhoon track migration.Given China’s location within the Western Pacific typhoon high-incidence region,the northward expansion of impacts will substantially escalate socio-economic exposure in mid-latitude regions previously at lower risk.These findings underscore the imperative for enhanced disaster pre-vention,mitigation strategies and targeted countermeasure research.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFA0604902,2024YFF1306802)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(No.2022J01497)Open Project of the Strait Meteorology Laboratory(No.2025KF03)。
文摘China’s coastal regions,characterized by dense populations and industrial agglomeration,face escalating threats from typhoon disasters.Understanding the evolution of socio-economic exposure to future typhoon landfalls under global change is critical for effective disaster risk management.This study utilizes future typhoon track data simulated by the regional climate model version 4(RegCM4),combined with projected population and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)data for China’s coastal regions under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs:SSP1,sustainability;SSP2,middle of the road;SSP5,fossil-fueled development).We analyze typhoon impact zones for future periods(2030s,2050s,and 2090s)under Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs:RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,representing low,medium,and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios,respectively).Exposure levels for 2030,2050,and 2100 are calculated based on the annual average frequency of typhoon impacts during these periods,aiming to quantify the distribution characteristics of typhoon-affected population and GDP in China’s coastal regions.Key findings reveal two high-frequency typhoon im-pact zones:the Taiwan Strait region and the northern Qiongzhou Strait region.Furthermore,under RCP2.6,typhoon impacts may ex-tend to Liaoning,while RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate potential impacts reaching further north to Heilongjiang.Under RCP4.5,Northeast China will experience the largest typhoon-affected area(43.800×10^(4) km^(2))by the 2030s.High population and GDP exposure concentrates in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,and the Taiwan Strait coastal areas.Notably,Liaoning’s cumulative ex-posed population may exceed 0.100×10^(8) by 2030 and 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to typhoon track migration.Given China’s location within the Western Pacific typhoon high-incidence region,the northward expansion of impacts will substantially escalate socio-economic exposure in mid-latitude regions previously at lower risk.These findings underscore the imperative for enhanced disaster pre-vention,mitigation strategies and targeted countermeasure research.
