Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
Since Blanford(1884)first linked Himalayan snowfall to subsequent Indian summer monsoon(ISM)rainfall,the potential for long-range forecasting has been recognized.Key advances followed:discovery of the Southern Oscilla...Since Blanford(1884)first linked Himalayan snowfall to subsequent Indian summer monsoon(ISM)rainfall,the potential for long-range forecasting has been recognized.Key advances followed:discovery of the Southern Oscillation(Walker,1925;Walker and Bliss,1932);identification of the Pacific-North American pattern(Wallace and Gutzler,1981);and Bjerknes’(1969)seminal study of ENSO as a predictable climate driver.Foundational theory—including equatorial wave dynamics(Matsuno,1966;Webster,1972;Gill,1980).展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,...The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,this study finds that the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and monsoon commencement experiences a notable interdecadal strengthening after 1976/77.While the response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO remains largely unchanged,ENSO induces a stronger Walker circulation,a more pronounced equatorial Rossby wave,and an intensified extratropical Rossby wave train after 1976/77.These enhanced atmospheric processes,which directly reinforce the ENSO-TASM commencement relationship,are likely driven by interdecadal shifts in the structure and variance of ENSO.Post-1976/77,ENSO displays increased variance and a more coherent structure,with more pronounced sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific and subtropical North Pacific.Given the limitations of observational data,a 1000-year piControl experiment further confirms the role of ENSO variance changes in strengthening its influence on monsoon commencement.Our findings underscore the critical influence of evolving ENSO characteristics on climate anomalies such as monsoon commencement,offering potential insights for short-term climate prediction.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
文摘Since Blanford(1884)first linked Himalayan snowfall to subsequent Indian summer monsoon(ISM)rainfall,the potential for long-range forecasting has been recognized.Key advances followed:discovery of the Southern Oscillation(Walker,1925;Walker and Bliss,1932);identification of the Pacific-North American pattern(Wallace and Gutzler,1981);and Bjerknes’(1969)seminal study of ENSO as a predictable climate driver.Foundational theory—including equatorial wave dynamics(Matsuno,1966;Webster,1972;Gill,1980).
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
基金supported jointly by the Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(Grant No.202501CF070059)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42205021)+5 种基金the Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department(Grant Nos.202505AB350001 and202403AP140009)the Yunnan Southwest United Graduate School Science and Technology Special Project(Award No.202302AP370003)the Scientific Research Fund Project of Yunnan Education Department(Grant No.2025Y0111)the Practical Innovation Project of Postgraduate Students in the Academic Degree of Yunnan University(Grant No.KC-24248868)the Practical Innovation Project of Postgraduate Students in the Professional Degree of Yunnan University(Grant No.ZC-24248604)the Youth Science and Technology Fund Project of Gansu Province(Grant No.24JRRA1186)。
文摘The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,this study finds that the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and monsoon commencement experiences a notable interdecadal strengthening after 1976/77.While the response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO remains largely unchanged,ENSO induces a stronger Walker circulation,a more pronounced equatorial Rossby wave,and an intensified extratropical Rossby wave train after 1976/77.These enhanced atmospheric processes,which directly reinforce the ENSO-TASM commencement relationship,are likely driven by interdecadal shifts in the structure and variance of ENSO.Post-1976/77,ENSO displays increased variance and a more coherent structure,with more pronounced sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific and subtropical North Pacific.Given the limitations of observational data,a 1000-year piControl experiment further confirms the role of ENSO variance changes in strengthening its influence on monsoon commencement.Our findings underscore the critical influence of evolving ENSO characteristics on climate anomalies such as monsoon commencement,offering potential insights for short-term climate prediction.
