This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically def...This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks(STGNNs).However,such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures.To address this limitation,we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform(EBT)to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components,which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks.The periodic component,characterized by strong nationwide correlations,is learned with a relatively simple architecture,whereas the amplitude-modulated component is modeled with more complex STGNNs that capture climatological similarities between regions.The predictions from the two components are subsequently recombined to yield final forecasts that integrate both periodic patterns and aperiodic variability.The proposed framework is validated with multiple STGNN architectures,and experimental results demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to conventional methods.展开更多
Worldwide radiation records suggest that the amount of sunlight received at the Earth's surface(surface solar radiation, SSR) has not been stable over the years, but underwent significant decadal variations, popul...Worldwide radiation records suggest that the amount of sunlight received at the Earth's surface(surface solar radiation, SSR) has not been stable over the years, but underwent significant decadal variations, popularly also known as “global dimming and brightening”. These variations have been particularly evident in China, where the SSR substantially declined from the 1960s to the 1990s(dimming), with indications for a trend reversal in the 2000s and a slight recovery(brightening) in recent years. This perspective/review paper will discuss recent updates and remaining challenges regarding our knowledge of the magnitudes, causes, and implications of these variations in SSR worldwide, with a particular emphasis on the developments in China.展开更多
基金supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Education(RS-2023-00249743).
文摘This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks(STGNNs).However,such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures.To address this limitation,we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform(EBT)to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components,which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks.The periodic component,characterized by strong nationwide correlations,is learned with a relatively simple architecture,whereas the amplitude-modulated component is modeled with more complex STGNNs that capture climatological similarities between regions.The predictions from the two components are subsequently recombined to yield final forecasts that integrate both periodic patterns and aperiodic variability.The proposed framework is validated with multiple STGNN architectures,and experimental results demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to conventional methods.
基金supported by a sequence of Swiss National Science Foundation Grants (Grant Nos.200021_135395,200020_159938,200020_188601)funding from the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo Swiss within the framework of GCOS Switzerland in support of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) hosted at ETH Zurich。
文摘Worldwide radiation records suggest that the amount of sunlight received at the Earth's surface(surface solar radiation, SSR) has not been stable over the years, but underwent significant decadal variations, popularly also known as “global dimming and brightening”. These variations have been particularly evident in China, where the SSR substantially declined from the 1960s to the 1990s(dimming), with indications for a trend reversal in the 2000s and a slight recovery(brightening) in recent years. This perspective/review paper will discuss recent updates and remaining challenges regarding our knowledge of the magnitudes, causes, and implications of these variations in SSR worldwide, with a particular emphasis on the developments in China.
