Tajikistan,a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia,is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change,threatening its snow-and glacier-fed streamflow.Yet,the impacts of sno...Tajikistan,a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia,is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change,threatening its snow-and glacier-fed streamflow.Yet,the impacts of snow drought on the regional hydrology remain insufficiently understood.In this study,we integrated multisource data,including the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis for Land Applications(ERA5-Land)data and hydrological station data,to systematically assess the snow drought patterns and their impacts on streamflow during 1950–2023.We identified snow drought events based on precipitation and snow fraction anomalies relative to climatological means and classified them into warm snow drought,dry snow drought,and warm&dry snow drought.The results revealed that snow drought was a recurrent phenomenon,occurring in 51.70%of the years during the study period,with warm&dry snow drought accounting for 21.90%of the total events.Both the frequency and severity exhibited pronounced spatial variability,largely governed by the elevation and snowfall fraction.Specifically,the frequency of warm snow drought was negatively correlated with the snowfall fraction,decreasing on average by 0.20 per unit increase in snowfall fraction,whereas the frequency of dry snow drought was positively correlated,increasing by 0.07 per unit increase.The streamflow analysis results demonstrated that snow drought typically reduced the warm-season discharge by 5.00%–18.00%in certain rivers,thereby exacerbating the water stress during the dry season.The results of this study advance our understanding by explicitly linking the types of snow drought to hydrological responses in Central Asia’s high mountains,providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation and sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan.展开更多
Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analys...Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China(2025YFE0103300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2024D01A143,2025D01B165)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(GZC20250226)the S&T Innovation and Development Project of Information Institution of Ministry of Emergency Management,China(2024506).
文摘Tajikistan,a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia,is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change,threatening its snow-and glacier-fed streamflow.Yet,the impacts of snow drought on the regional hydrology remain insufficiently understood.In this study,we integrated multisource data,including the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis for Land Applications(ERA5-Land)data and hydrological station data,to systematically assess the snow drought patterns and their impacts on streamflow during 1950–2023.We identified snow drought events based on precipitation and snow fraction anomalies relative to climatological means and classified them into warm snow drought,dry snow drought,and warm&dry snow drought.The results revealed that snow drought was a recurrent phenomenon,occurring in 51.70%of the years during the study period,with warm&dry snow drought accounting for 21.90%of the total events.Both the frequency and severity exhibited pronounced spatial variability,largely governed by the elevation and snowfall fraction.Specifically,the frequency of warm snow drought was negatively correlated with the snowfall fraction,decreasing on average by 0.20 per unit increase in snowfall fraction,whereas the frequency of dry snow drought was positively correlated,increasing by 0.07 per unit increase.The streamflow analysis results demonstrated that snow drought typically reduced the warm-season discharge by 5.00%–18.00%in certain rivers,thereby exacerbating the water stress during the dry season.The results of this study advance our understanding by explicitly linking the types of snow drought to hydrological responses in Central Asia’s high mountains,providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation and sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0720203)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805603).
文摘Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.
