The basic condition of earthquake disasters in China is featured by high frequency,strong intensity,wide distribution,and heavy losses.Earthquake forecasting plays a critical role in reducing seismic risks.To better a...The basic condition of earthquake disasters in China is featured by high frequency,strong intensity,wide distribution,and heavy losses.Earthquake forecasting plays a critical role in reducing seismic risks.To better advance earthquake predicting efforts,the China Earthquake Administration released the Strategic Plan for Earthquake Forecasting in China(2025−2035)on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Haicheng earthquake.Here we briefly introduce the main contents of the Strategic Plan,including the main progress,strategic objectives,and development directions of earthquake forecasting in China.展开更多
Symposium overview The International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting to Commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 Earthquake,Liaoning,China,was held in Shenyang,China,from 8 to 11 July 2025.The sy...Symposium overview The International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting to Commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 Earthquake,Liaoning,China,was held in Shenyang,China,from 8 to 11 July 2025.The symposium was organized by the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration(CEA),the State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting,and the China Seismic Experimental Site(CSES),in collaboration with the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior(IASPEI),the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science(ACES).展开更多
One of the primary tasks of earthquake early warning(EEW)systems is to predict potential earthquake damage rapidly and accurately.Cumulative absolute velocity(CAV),Arias intensity(I_(A)),and spectrum intensity(SI)are ...One of the primary tasks of earthquake early warning(EEW)systems is to predict potential earthquake damage rapidly and accurately.Cumulative absolute velocity(CAV),Arias intensity(I_(A)),and spectrum intensity(SI)are important parameters for measuring ground motion intensity and assessing earthquake damage.Due to the limited available information in EEW,CAV,I_(A),and SI cannot be accurately predicted using traditional EEW methods.In this paper,we propose an end-to-end deep learning-based Ground motion Intensity prediction Network(ENGINet)for on-site EEW.The aim of the ENGINet is to predict CAV,I_(A),and SI rapidly and reliably.ENGINet is based on a convolutional neural network and recurrent neural network.The inputs of the network are three-component acceleration records,three-component velocity records,and three-component displacement records obtained by a single station.The results from the test dataset show that at 3 s after the P-wave arrival,compared with the baseline models and other traditional methods,ENGINet has better performance in predicting CAV,I_(A),and SI.Our results indicate that ENGINet can quickly and accurately predict CAV,I_(A),and SI to some extent and has good potential in EEW efforts.展开更多
Discussed and endorsed at the International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting,8-10 July 2025 It has been over three quarters of a century since earthquake prediction was put on the agenda of national and global ende...Discussed and endorsed at the International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting,8-10 July 2025 It has been over three quarters of a century since earthquake prediction was put on the agenda of national and global endeavor of earthquake science.Yet earthquake prediction remains a grand scientific challenge.However,in the long march to earthquake prediction,there were some remarkable achievements.The successful prediction of the 4 February 1975,Haicheng,Liaoning Province,China。展开更多
文摘The basic condition of earthquake disasters in China is featured by high frequency,strong intensity,wide distribution,and heavy losses.Earthquake forecasting plays a critical role in reducing seismic risks.To better advance earthquake predicting efforts,the China Earthquake Administration released the Strategic Plan for Earthquake Forecasting in China(2025−2035)on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Haicheng earthquake.Here we briefly introduce the main contents of the Strategic Plan,including the main progress,strategic objectives,and development directions of earthquake forecasting in China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U2039207)
文摘Symposium overview The International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting to Commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 Earthquake,Liaoning,China,was held in Shenyang,China,from 8 to 11 July 2025.The symposium was organized by the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration(CEA),the State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting,and the China Seismic Experimental Site(CSES),in collaboration with the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior(IASPEI),the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science(ACES).
基金Scientific Research Fund of Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration under Grant No.2024B08。
文摘One of the primary tasks of earthquake early warning(EEW)systems is to predict potential earthquake damage rapidly and accurately.Cumulative absolute velocity(CAV),Arias intensity(I_(A)),and spectrum intensity(SI)are important parameters for measuring ground motion intensity and assessing earthquake damage.Due to the limited available information in EEW,CAV,I_(A),and SI cannot be accurately predicted using traditional EEW methods.In this paper,we propose an end-to-end deep learning-based Ground motion Intensity prediction Network(ENGINet)for on-site EEW.The aim of the ENGINet is to predict CAV,I_(A),and SI rapidly and reliably.ENGINet is based on a convolutional neural network and recurrent neural network.The inputs of the network are three-component acceleration records,three-component velocity records,and three-component displacement records obtained by a single station.The results from the test dataset show that at 3 s after the P-wave arrival,compared with the baseline models and other traditional methods,ENGINet has better performance in predicting CAV,I_(A),and SI.Our results indicate that ENGINet can quickly and accurately predict CAV,I_(A),and SI to some extent and has good potential in EEW efforts.
文摘Discussed and endorsed at the International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting,8-10 July 2025 It has been over three quarters of a century since earthquake prediction was put on the agenda of national and global endeavor of earthquake science.Yet earthquake prediction remains a grand scientific challenge.However,in the long march to earthquake prediction,there were some remarkable achievements.The successful prediction of the 4 February 1975,Haicheng,Liaoning Province,China。
