Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
While the geodetic excitationχ(t)of polar motion p(t)is essential to improve our understanding of global mass redistributions and relative motions with respect to the terrestrial frame,the widely adopted method to de...While the geodetic excitationχ(t)of polar motion p(t)is essential to improve our understanding of global mass redistributions and relative motions with respect to the terrestrial frame,the widely adopted method to deriveχ(t)from p(t)has biases in both amplitude and phase responses.This study has developed a new simple but more accurate method based on the combination of the frequency-and time-domain Liouville's equation(FTLE).The FTLE method has been validated not only with 6-h sampled synthetic excitation series but also with daily and 6-h sampled polar motion measurements as well asχ(t)produced by the interactive webpage tool of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service(IERS).Numerical comparisons demonstrate thatχ(t)derived from the FTLE method has superior performances in both the time and frequency domains with respect to that obtained from the widely adopted method or the IERS webpage tool,provided that the input p(t)series has a length around or more than 25 years,which presents no practical limitations since the necessary polar motion data are readily available.The FTLE code is provided in the form of Mat Lab function.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers 41874025 and 41474022)。
文摘While the geodetic excitationχ(t)of polar motion p(t)is essential to improve our understanding of global mass redistributions and relative motions with respect to the terrestrial frame,the widely adopted method to deriveχ(t)from p(t)has biases in both amplitude and phase responses.This study has developed a new simple but more accurate method based on the combination of the frequency-and time-domain Liouville's equation(FTLE).The FTLE method has been validated not only with 6-h sampled synthetic excitation series but also with daily and 6-h sampled polar motion measurements as well asχ(t)produced by the interactive webpage tool of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service(IERS).Numerical comparisons demonstrate thatχ(t)derived from the FTLE method has superior performances in both the time and frequency domains with respect to that obtained from the widely adopted method or the IERS webpage tool,provided that the input p(t)series has a length around or more than 25 years,which presents no practical limitations since the necessary polar motion data are readily available.The FTLE code is provided in the form of Mat Lab function.
