随着全球气候变化的严峻挑战和“双碳”目标的不断推进,光伏产业正经历快速发展和深刻变革。通过编译欧洲光伏产业协会(SolarPower Europe)发布的《全球光伏市场展望(2024—2028)》(Global market outlook for solar power 2024—2028)...随着全球气候变化的严峻挑战和“双碳”目标的不断推进,光伏产业正经历快速发展和深刻变革。通过编译欧洲光伏产业协会(SolarPower Europe)发布的《全球光伏市场展望(2024—2028)》(Global market outlook for solar power 2024—2028)中的部分内容,并结合国家能源局、国际能源署(IEA)等能源机构及相关文献的数据,分析了2023年全球光伏市场的发展形势,然后预测了2024—2028年全球光伏市场的发展形势,并提出了推动全球光伏产业发展的具体举措。分析结果显示:预计2024—2028年期间,全球光伏市场将继续保持高速增长,且2028年全球光伏发电新增装机容量约为876 GW。其中,欧洲地区与美洲地区的光伏市场未来将保持稳步发展态势;亚太地区光伏市场将继续由中国和印度这2个大型光伏市场主导;中东和非洲地区光伏市场将有更多较小的新兴光伏市场实现稳步增长。此外,可以从制定明确且具有约束力的国家目标,并以政策、法规和融资机制作为辅助;支持技术创新和新型应用模式的发展;践行可持续的环境、社会和治理(ESG)做法;统筹推进新型电力系统建设;推动光伏产业链相关技能人员培训的全球化这5个方面推动全球光伏产业的发展。研究结果可为全球光伏产业可持续发展提供理论支撑。展开更多
By comparing the growth trajectories of East Asia and Latin America,this study finds that during industrialization,East Asian economies actively advanced their manufacturing sectors toward high-end production and achi...By comparing the growth trajectories of East Asia and Latin America,this study finds that during industrialization,East Asian economies actively advanced their manufacturing sectors toward high-end production and achieved a higher relative density of high-skilled labor within this sector.In contrast,Latin American economies experienced a“low-end lock-in”in manufacturing,with high-skilled labor more heavily concentrated in the service sector.To provide a unified explanation of these patterns of industrial transformation and labor allocation,this paper develops a three-sector general equilibrium model that includes basic manufacturing(BM),high-end manufacturing(HM),and services,and incorporates labor heterogeneity.The model captures how,under different development thresholds for HM,the allocation of high-skilled labor across sectors leads to two distinct structural transformation paths:from BM to HM,or from BM to services.These paths,in turn,generate different trajectories of human capital accumulation and economic growth performance.Simulation analysis shows that dynamically adjusted industrial policies are more effective than static ones,and that combining education policy with industrial policy yields better outcomes than either policy alone.This study extends theoretical research on industrial structural transformation,highlights the importance of HM for latecomer economies,and offers theoretical underpinnings and decision-making insights for advancing new industrialization and deepening integration between industrial and talent chains.展开更多
文摘随着全球气候变化的严峻挑战和“双碳”目标的不断推进,光伏产业正经历快速发展和深刻变革。通过编译欧洲光伏产业协会(SolarPower Europe)发布的《全球光伏市场展望(2024—2028)》(Global market outlook for solar power 2024—2028)中的部分内容,并结合国家能源局、国际能源署(IEA)等能源机构及相关文献的数据,分析了2023年全球光伏市场的发展形势,然后预测了2024—2028年全球光伏市场的发展形势,并提出了推动全球光伏产业发展的具体举措。分析结果显示:预计2024—2028年期间,全球光伏市场将继续保持高速增长,且2028年全球光伏发电新增装机容量约为876 GW。其中,欧洲地区与美洲地区的光伏市场未来将保持稳步发展态势;亚太地区光伏市场将继续由中国和印度这2个大型光伏市场主导;中东和非洲地区光伏市场将有更多较小的新兴光伏市场实现稳步增长。此外,可以从制定明确且具有约束力的国家目标,并以政策、法规和融资机制作为辅助;支持技术创新和新型应用模式的发展;践行可持续的环境、社会和治理(ESG)做法;统筹推进新型电力系统建设;推动光伏产业链相关技能人员培训的全球化这5个方面推动全球光伏产业的发展。研究结果可为全球光伏产业可持续发展提供理论支撑。
文摘By comparing the growth trajectories of East Asia and Latin America,this study finds that during industrialization,East Asian economies actively advanced their manufacturing sectors toward high-end production and achieved a higher relative density of high-skilled labor within this sector.In contrast,Latin American economies experienced a“low-end lock-in”in manufacturing,with high-skilled labor more heavily concentrated in the service sector.To provide a unified explanation of these patterns of industrial transformation and labor allocation,this paper develops a three-sector general equilibrium model that includes basic manufacturing(BM),high-end manufacturing(HM),and services,and incorporates labor heterogeneity.The model captures how,under different development thresholds for HM,the allocation of high-skilled labor across sectors leads to two distinct structural transformation paths:from BM to HM,or from BM to services.These paths,in turn,generate different trajectories of human capital accumulation and economic growth performance.Simulation analysis shows that dynamically adjusted industrial policies are more effective than static ones,and that combining education policy with industrial policy yields better outcomes than either policy alone.This study extends theoretical research on industrial structural transformation,highlights the importance of HM for latecomer economies,and offers theoretical underpinnings and decision-making insights for advancing new industrialization and deepening integration between industrial and talent chains.
