Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and...Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.展开更多
Dune barrier systems represent highly sought-after coastal landscapes for tourism and urban development around the world.However,a century ago,they were considered hazardous environments due to their great dynamic nat...Dune barrier systems represent highly sought-after coastal landscapes for tourism and urban development around the world.However,a century ago,they were considered hazardous environments due to their great dynamic nature.As a result,stabilization practices were considered necessary.The systematic introduction of fast-growing exotic trees helped stabilize the sand,making it easier for tourism urbanization to take place,but also leading to erosion processes.This paper aims to assess long-term changes in vegetation cover over a large temperate barrier in Argentina.This complex region includes urban resorts,afforestation zones,and protected areas.A GIS-based geospatial analysis was conducted using a large satellite database(>350 images),and the future evolution of the vegetation was modeled.The results revealed two primary spatiotemporal patterns associated with a gradual expansion of vegetation cover,accompanied by a concurrent reduction in sandy areas.In 1986,the dune area comprised 75%more surface than vegetation,whereas in 2021,it represented 60%less than vegetation.Furthermore,the 2050 scenario suggests a potential 40%reduction of dunes in certain areas.It is necessary to enhance management actions aimed at maintaining dune mobility and ensuring local and regional sediment balance.Long-term management strategies must focus on restoring native plant communities and controlling invasive species,and avoiding new dune fixation initiatives based on the introduction of exotic species.展开更多
The rapid urbanization and increasing challenges are faced by cities globally,including climate change,population growth,and resource constraints.Sustainable smart city(also referred to as“smart sustainable city”)ca...The rapid urbanization and increasing challenges are faced by cities globally,including climate change,population growth,and resource constraints.Sustainable smart city(also referred to as“smart sustainable city”)can offer innovative solutions by integrating advanced technologies to build smarter,greener,and more livable urban environments with significant benefits.Using the Web of Science(WoS)database,this study examined:(i)the mainstream approaches and current research trends in the literature of sustainable smart city;(ii)the extent to which the research of sustainable smart city aligns with Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs);(iii)the current topics and collaboration patterns in sustainable smart city research;and(iv)the potential opportunities for future research on the sustainable smart city field.The findings indicated that research on sustainable smart city began in 2010 and gained significant momentum in 2013,with China leading,followed by Italy and Spain.Moreover,59.00%of the selected publications on the research of sustainable smart city focus on SDG 11(Sustainable Cities and Communities).Bibliometric analysis outcome revealed that artificial intelligence(AI),big data,machine learning,and deep learning are emerging research fields.The terms smart city,smart cities,and sustainability emerged as the top three co-occurring keywords with the highest link strength,followed by frequently co-occurring keywords such as AI,innovation,big data,urban governance,resilience,machine learning,and Internet of Things(IoT).The clustering results indicated that current studies explored the theoretical foundation,challenges,and future prospects of sustainable smart city,with an emphasis on sustainability.To further support urban sustainability and the attainment of SDGs,the future research of sustainable smart city should explore the application and implications of AI and big data on urban development including cybersecurity and governance challenges.展开更多
基金supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NWO in the form of a VIDI grant(Grant No.VI.Vidi.198.008).
文摘Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science,Technology and Innovation of Argentina trough the project“Topografía,escurrimiento superficial y monitoreo de playas en el Partido de Villa Gesell,provincia de Buenos Aires”(Impact.AR N°106-RESOL-2022-224-APN-SACT#MCT)by the Nacional Council of Scientific and Technical Research(CONICET)through the project“Impactos de la reversión del nivel del mar en Buenos Aires,Argentina”(PIP 21/2311220200100041CO-RESOL-2021-1639-APN-DIR#CONICET)。
文摘Dune barrier systems represent highly sought-after coastal landscapes for tourism and urban development around the world.However,a century ago,they were considered hazardous environments due to their great dynamic nature.As a result,stabilization practices were considered necessary.The systematic introduction of fast-growing exotic trees helped stabilize the sand,making it easier for tourism urbanization to take place,but also leading to erosion processes.This paper aims to assess long-term changes in vegetation cover over a large temperate barrier in Argentina.This complex region includes urban resorts,afforestation zones,and protected areas.A GIS-based geospatial analysis was conducted using a large satellite database(>350 images),and the future evolution of the vegetation was modeled.The results revealed two primary spatiotemporal patterns associated with a gradual expansion of vegetation cover,accompanied by a concurrent reduction in sandy areas.In 1986,the dune area comprised 75%more surface than vegetation,whereas in 2021,it represented 60%less than vegetation.Furthermore,the 2050 scenario suggests a potential 40%reduction of dunes in certain areas.It is necessary to enhance management actions aimed at maintaining dune mobility and ensuring local and regional sediment balance.Long-term management strategies must focus on restoring native plant communities and controlling invasive species,and avoiding new dune fixation initiatives based on the introduction of exotic species.
文摘The rapid urbanization and increasing challenges are faced by cities globally,including climate change,population growth,and resource constraints.Sustainable smart city(also referred to as“smart sustainable city”)can offer innovative solutions by integrating advanced technologies to build smarter,greener,and more livable urban environments with significant benefits.Using the Web of Science(WoS)database,this study examined:(i)the mainstream approaches and current research trends in the literature of sustainable smart city;(ii)the extent to which the research of sustainable smart city aligns with Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs);(iii)the current topics and collaboration patterns in sustainable smart city research;and(iv)the potential opportunities for future research on the sustainable smart city field.The findings indicated that research on sustainable smart city began in 2010 and gained significant momentum in 2013,with China leading,followed by Italy and Spain.Moreover,59.00%of the selected publications on the research of sustainable smart city focus on SDG 11(Sustainable Cities and Communities).Bibliometric analysis outcome revealed that artificial intelligence(AI),big data,machine learning,and deep learning are emerging research fields.The terms smart city,smart cities,and sustainability emerged as the top three co-occurring keywords with the highest link strength,followed by frequently co-occurring keywords such as AI,innovation,big data,urban governance,resilience,machine learning,and Internet of Things(IoT).The clustering results indicated that current studies explored the theoretical foundation,challenges,and future prospects of sustainable smart city,with an emphasis on sustainability.To further support urban sustainability and the attainment of SDGs,the future research of sustainable smart city should explore the application and implications of AI and big data on urban development including cybersecurity and governance challenges.
