Following the 1973 oil crisis, Japan ＇s economic growth slowed down substantially and its asset prices overshot their long-term trend. The economic performance of this episode of the Japanese history has been dubbed ...Following the 1973 oil crisis, Japan ＇s economic growth slowed down substantially and its asset prices overshot their long-term trend. The economic performance of this episode of the Japanese history has been dubbed the ＂Japan syndrome.＂ China has followed Japan＇s export-led growth model and the the world economy following the oil crisis current worm economy very much resembles It is then a legitimate question to ask whether China is likely to follow in Japan＇s steps and experience a major slowdown in its growth. The present paper shows that China can do a better job than Japan primarily because its large size allows the country to benefit from internal convergence. Based on the estimation of a growth equation using cross-country panel data, the paper forecasts that under reasonable assumptions about the growth rate of the worm economy and China ＇s investment rate, China could maintain reasonably high growth rates in the next 10 years.展开更多
The recent China's growth slowdown is both cyclical and secular, driven by external and internal factors. In this article, I highlight several key internal factors that have hindered China's growth in recent y...The recent China's growth slowdown is both cyclical and secular, driven by external and internal factors. In this article, I highlight several key internal factors that have hindered China's growth in recent years. These include worsening misallocation of resources and declining growth of total factor productivity, plus rising household income inequality and debt overhang in the face of tightened liquidity constraint. All of these show the urgency for deepening reforms in China's key macroeconomic landscapes in order to remove institutional barriers and distortions deep-rooted in the nation's economic and financial structure, and to correct fundamental imperfections of its socialeconomic system. 1 argue that such refonns are of critical importance for China's pursuit of healthy and sustainable growth and of balanced and adequate development going forward.展开更多
Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector li...Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China's macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4%(6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.展开更多
Leaving year 2017 China＇s macroeconomy is continuously characterized by unbalanced and inadequate development. Whereas some aggregate indicators have shown improvement over the year, the cumulative growth rates in co...Leaving year 2017 China＇s macroeconomy is continuously characterized by unbalanced and inadequate development. Whereas some aggregate indicators have shown improvement over the year, the cumulative growth rates in consumption and fixed asset investment have continued theirdownward trajectories. Worsening income inequality and resource misallocations, both between secondary and tertiary industries, and within the latter, pose serious challenges, let alone the systemic risk associated with the flourishing shadow banking system, rapid credit growth and debt overhang that weigh on the Chinese economy like the Sword of Damocles. This summary report highlights both the status quo and the consequences of the unbalanced and inadequate development embodied in China＇s persistently distorted economic structure, and the role of deepening reforms of the institutions and governance in resolving the problems. Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing China＇s short-, medium-, and long-term issues ir~ an internally coherent manner. Looking into year 2018, our benchmark projection of real GDP growth rate is 6.7% （6.41% using more reliable rather than the official data）. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to reflect various aspects of the economic challenges in the short to long runs. Through the lens of these analyses we conclude that rule-of-law based and market-oriented structural reforms should continue to hold a center stage in China＇s transition from a phase of high-speed but unbalanced growth, to a stage of balanced and adequate high-quality development.展开更多
文摘Following the 1973 oil crisis, Japan ＇s economic growth slowed down substantially and its asset prices overshot their long-term trend. The economic performance of this episode of the Japanese history has been dubbed the ＂Japan syndrome.＂ China has followed Japan＇s export-led growth model and the the world economy following the oil crisis current worm economy very much resembles It is then a legitimate question to ask whether China is likely to follow in Japan＇s steps and experience a major slowdown in its growth. The present paper shows that China can do a better job than Japan primarily because its large size allows the country to benefit from internal convergence. Based on the estimation of a growth equation using cross-country panel data, the paper forecasts that under reasonable assumptions about the growth rate of the worm economy and China ＇s investment rate, China could maintain reasonably high growth rates in the next 10 years.
文摘The recent China's growth slowdown is both cyclical and secular, driven by external and internal factors. In this article, I highlight several key internal factors that have hindered China's growth in recent years. These include worsening misallocation of resources and declining growth of total factor productivity, plus rising household income inequality and debt overhang in the face of tightened liquidity constraint. All of these show the urgency for deepening reforms in China's key macroeconomic landscapes in order to remove institutional barriers and distortions deep-rooted in the nation's economic and financial structure, and to correct fundamental imperfections of its socialeconomic system. 1 argue that such refonns are of critical importance for China's pursuit of healthy and sustainable growth and of balanced and adequate development going forward.
文摘Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China's macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4%(6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.
文摘Leaving year 2017 China＇s macroeconomy is continuously characterized by unbalanced and inadequate development. Whereas some aggregate indicators have shown improvement over the year, the cumulative growth rates in consumption and fixed asset investment have continued theirdownward trajectories. Worsening income inequality and resource misallocations, both between secondary and tertiary industries, and within the latter, pose serious challenges, let alone the systemic risk associated with the flourishing shadow banking system, rapid credit growth and debt overhang that weigh on the Chinese economy like the Sword of Damocles. This summary report highlights both the status quo and the consequences of the unbalanced and inadequate development embodied in China＇s persistently distorted economic structure, and the role of deepening reforms of the institutions and governance in resolving the problems. Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing China＇s short-, medium-, and long-term issues ir~ an internally coherent manner. Looking into year 2018, our benchmark projection of real GDP growth rate is 6.7% （6.41% using more reliable rather than the official data）. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to reflect various aspects of the economic challenges in the short to long runs. Through the lens of these analyses we conclude that rule-of-law based and market-oriented structural reforms should continue to hold a center stage in China＇s transition from a phase of high-speed but unbalanced growth, to a stage of balanced and adequate high-quality development.
