The global outbreak of COVID-19 requires us to accurately predict the spread of disease and decide how adopting corresponding strategies to ensure the sustainable development.Most of the existing infectious disease fo...The global outbreak of COVID-19 requires us to accurately predict the spread of disease and decide how adopting corresponding strategies to ensure the sustainable development.Most of the existing infectious disease forecast-ing methods are based on the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Removed(SIR)model.However,due to the highly nonlinearity,nonstationarity,sensitivities to initial values and parameters,SIR type models would produce large deviations in the forecast results.Here,we propose a framework of using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the model parameters,and then the data assimilation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter to update model trajectory by cooperating with the real time confirmed cases,so as to improve the predictability of the pan-demic.Based on this framework,we have developed a global COVID-19 real time forecasting system.Moreover,we suggest that big data associated with the spatiotemporally heterogeneous pathological characteristics,and social environment in different countries should be assimilated to further improve the COVID-19 predictability.It is hoped that the accurate prediction of COVID-19 will contribute to the adjustments of prevention and control strategies to contain the pandemic,and help achieve the SDG goal of“Good Health and Well-Being”.展开更多
Infrastructure mega-projects(IMP), which involve complex interactions and feedback, have more significant impact on economic, social, and other systems.This paper proposes a concept—the IMP complex ecosystem—to anal...Infrastructure mega-projects(IMP), which involve complex interactions and feedback, have more significant impact on economic, social, and other systems.This paper proposes a concept—the IMP complex ecosystem—to analyze IMP from a broad perspective of organic links across engineering, social, economic, and resource environments. Moreover, this paper proposes the theoretical concept, framework, and functions for the IMP complex ecosystem based on complex ecosystem theory.First, the coupling process between IMP complex ecosystem subsystems is analyzed through material flows, energy flows, information flows, and value streams.Second, a logistic model of the IMP complex ecosystem is proposed by analyzing the evolution conditions and motivations. Third, the evolution pattern of the IMP complex ecosystem is determined. Fourth, the positive evolution strategy of the IMP complex ecosystem based on dissipative structure theory and the influencing factors of the evolutionary process is introduced. Finally, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and Sousa chinensis are used as the case study. This paper also analyzes the coupling structure on the complex ecosystem of the Hong KongZhuhai-Macao Bridge and investigates the coupling and evolution mechanism application of the IMP complex ecosystem on Sousa chinensis protection for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge project.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Pro-gram of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20100104)the Science-based Advisory Program of the Alliance of International Sci-ence Organizations(Grant No.ANSO-SBA-2020-07)+1 种基金the National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41801270)the Foun-dation for Excellent Youth Scholars of NIEER,CAS.
文摘The global outbreak of COVID-19 requires us to accurately predict the spread of disease and decide how adopting corresponding strategies to ensure the sustainable development.Most of the existing infectious disease forecast-ing methods are based on the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Removed(SIR)model.However,due to the highly nonlinearity,nonstationarity,sensitivities to initial values and parameters,SIR type models would produce large deviations in the forecast results.Here,we propose a framework of using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the model parameters,and then the data assimilation based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter to update model trajectory by cooperating with the real time confirmed cases,so as to improve the predictability of the pan-demic.Based on this framework,we have developed a global COVID-19 real time forecasting system.Moreover,we suggest that big data associated with the spatiotemporally heterogeneous pathological characteristics,and social environment in different countries should be assimilated to further improve the COVID-19 predictability.It is hoped that the accurate prediction of COVID-19 will contribute to the adjustments of prevention and control strategies to contain the pandemic,and help achieve the SDG goal of“Good Health and Well-Being”.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71771067 and 71390522)
文摘Infrastructure mega-projects(IMP), which involve complex interactions and feedback, have more significant impact on economic, social, and other systems.This paper proposes a concept—the IMP complex ecosystem—to analyze IMP from a broad perspective of organic links across engineering, social, economic, and resource environments. Moreover, this paper proposes the theoretical concept, framework, and functions for the IMP complex ecosystem based on complex ecosystem theory.First, the coupling process between IMP complex ecosystem subsystems is analyzed through material flows, energy flows, information flows, and value streams.Second, a logistic model of the IMP complex ecosystem is proposed by analyzing the evolution conditions and motivations. Third, the evolution pattern of the IMP complex ecosystem is determined. Fourth, the positive evolution strategy of the IMP complex ecosystem based on dissipative structure theory and the influencing factors of the evolutionary process is introduced. Finally, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and Sousa chinensis are used as the case study. This paper also analyzes the coupling structure on the complex ecosystem of the Hong KongZhuhai-Macao Bridge and investigates the coupling and evolution mechanism application of the IMP complex ecosystem on Sousa chinensis protection for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge project.
