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Ensemble融合模型的建立及其在面粉价格预测中的应用
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作者 轩彤 修子涵 初洪龙 《农业大数据学报》 2026年第1期36-47,共12页
粮食安全是“国之大者”,是国家安全的基础,是经济安全的底线。小麦是我国主要的粮食品种,面粉作为小麦的主要加工产品,其价格波动与小麦市场密切相关,是反映粮食市场供需变化的重要指标。准确预测面粉价格对稳定消费市场、保障国家粮... 粮食安全是“国之大者”,是国家安全的基础,是经济安全的底线。小麦是我国主要的粮食品种,面粉作为小麦的主要加工产品,其价格波动与小麦市场密切相关,是反映粮食市场供需变化的重要指标。准确预测面粉价格对稳定消费市场、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于农业农村部重点农产品市场信息平台中2023年11月至2025年11月的日度面粉价格数据,系统构建并比较了ARIMA、GM(1,1)、LSTM及Transformer四种时间序列预测模型。通过序列分析揭示价格波动的平稳性及非线性等复杂特征,为后续差异化模型的选择与构建提供依据。再基于误差倒数平方的加权融合策略,构建Ensemble融合模型。实证结果表明,单一模型在预测性能上各具优势:ARIMA与GM(1,1)在刻画整体趋势上表现稳健,而LSTM与Transformer在捕捉非线性波动方面作用显著。而集成各模型优点、弥补单一方法局限构建的Ensemble融合模型,综合评估平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)等关键指标均表现优异,其表现显著优于任一单一模型,展现出更高的预测精度与稳定性。多模型融合策略在面粉价格预测方面具有显著有效性与实用价值,可用于粮食及其加工品市场的价格预测研究。 展开更多
关键词 面粉价格预测 时间序列模型 模型构建 融合模型
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Yttrium-90 radioembolization therapy prior to liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma improves patient outcomes
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作者 Rui Tang Guang-Dong Wu +3 位作者 Ang Li Yu-Cheng Hou xuan tong Qian Lu 《Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International》 2026年第1期4-14,共11页
For early hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),curative therapies include surgical excision and radiofrequency ablation.Other treatment modes for advanced HCC involve transarterial chemoembolization.For HCC patients who do n... For early hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),curative therapies include surgical excision and radiofrequency ablation.Other treatment modes for advanced HCC involve transarterial chemoembolization.For HCC patients who do not fit the Milan criteria or are waiting for liver transplantation(LT),studies of transarterial radioembolization with Yttrium-90(Y-90)demonstrated that Y-90 may accomplish a good downstaging or bridging effect before LT and can even achieve complete pathological necrosis.The present review discussed Y-90 radioembolization as a local regional treatment option for advanced and unresectable HCC,with a focus on neoadjuvant intervention before LT. 展开更多
关键词 Hepatocellular carcinoma Liver transplantation Transarterial chemoembolization Transarterial radioembolization Yttrium-90
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QuEChERS-LC-QTRAP-MS/MS联用技术测定鸡蛋中42种农药残留 被引量:1
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作者 宣彤 王岩松 +5 位作者 李巧莲 罗景阳 袁帅 李娇 刘鑫 张承昕 《中国食品添加剂》 2025年第5期114-124,共11页
采用QuEChERS净化-液相色谱串联三重四级杆复合线性离子阱质谱(LC-QTRAP-MS/MS),建立一种同时测定鸡蛋中42种农药残留的方法。鸡蛋样品使用乙腈进行提取,采用MgSO4、PSA、HC-C18、MWCNTs进行净化,质谱采用增强子离子扫描模式(MRM-IDA-E... 采用QuEChERS净化-液相色谱串联三重四级杆复合线性离子阱质谱(LC-QTRAP-MS/MS),建立一种同时测定鸡蛋中42种农药残留的方法。鸡蛋样品使用乙腈进行提取,采用MgSO4、PSA、HC-C18、MWCNTs进行净化,质谱采用增强子离子扫描模式(MRM-IDA-EPI)进行检测,外标法定量。根据实际鸡蛋样品中农药残留检测结果计算EDI值与HQ值,进行食品安全评价。结果显示:该方法具有较高的灵敏度,42种农药在0.5~25μg/L和1~100μg/L质量浓度范围内线性关系良好(R^(2)>0.99),平均回收率在65.9%~119.8%,相对标准偏差在1.92%~11.76%,共检出81批次样品存在农药残留,包括吡唑萘菌胺、肟菌酯、环丙酰菌胺、环氟菌胺、唑菌胺酯、烯酰吗啉、噻呋酰胺、氟虫腈、氟虫腈砜和氟虫腈硫醚。鸡蛋中农药残留的HQ最大值为0.15远远小于1。该方法快速简便、定性能力强,适用于鸡蛋中42种农药的筛查确证和定量检测。鸡蛋中存在一定的农药残留,但对人体健康的风险仍处于可接受范围。 展开更多
关键词 液相色谱串联三重四级杆复合线性离子阱质谱 鸡蛋 农药 残留检测
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浮动环密封自锁位置的试验研究 被引量:2
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作者 夏鹏 宣统 +1 位作者 周泽新 刘占生 《推进技术》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第4期884-891,共8页
浮动环密封被应用于液体火箭涡轮泵中,阻隔高压工质的泄漏。为了研究浮动环密封的运动特性和自锁位置的分布规律,开展试验研究,详细地展示了试验装置的原理和试验步骤。试验结果表明,间隙流体激励推动浮动环密封向转子靠近,转子的涡动... 浮动环密封被应用于液体火箭涡轮泵中,阻隔高压工质的泄漏。为了研究浮动环密封的运动特性和自锁位置的分布规律,开展试验研究,详细地展示了试验装置的原理和试验步骤。试验结果表明,间隙流体激励推动浮动环密封向转子靠近,转子的涡动运动使浮动环密封更加靠近转子涡动中心。压差恒定时,转子振动幅度决定浮动环密封能否自锁,自锁位置依赖于压差、转子振动的变化过程。试验中,自锁位置距离转子涡动中心的最小距离小于10μm。 展开更多
关键词 浮动环密封 锁死位置 振动 转子
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多壁碳纳米管改进QuEChERS-液相色谱-串联质谱法测定豆类中12种酰胺类杀菌剂残留量 被引量:7
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作者 李巧莲 罗景阳 +3 位作者 张宏宏 王岩松 宣彤 蒋笑妍 《粮食与油脂》 北大核心 2023年第1期157-162,共6页
建立基于多壁碳纳米管改进分散固相萃取净化技术(QuEChERS),结合液相色谱-串联质谱法(LC-MS/MS),测定豆类中12种酰胺类杀菌剂残留量。结果表明:改进的QuEChERS最佳条件为无水MgSO4添加量800 mg、PSA添加量200 mg、HC-C18添加量100 mg、M... 建立基于多壁碳纳米管改进分散固相萃取净化技术(QuEChERS),结合液相色谱-串联质谱法(LC-MS/MS),测定豆类中12种酰胺类杀菌剂残留量。结果表明:改进的QuEChERS最佳条件为无水MgSO4添加量800 mg、PSA添加量200 mg、HC-C18添加量100 mg、MWCNTs添加量25 mg;在此条件下测得的12种酰胺类杀菌剂在0.1~2.5μg/L范围内均具有良好的线性关系,相关系数均大于0.99;方法检出限为0.05~2.00μg/kg,定量限为0.2~5.0μg/kg;加标实验平均回收率为70.7%~115.0%,相对标准偏差为0.4%~7.4%。该方法操作快捷,净化效果好,灵敏度高,适用于豆类中酰胺类杀菌剂残留量的分析。 展开更多
关键词 多壁碳纳米管 分散固相萃取净化技术 液相色谱-串联质谱法 酰胺类杀菌剂
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Meshless Surface Wind Speed Field Reconstruction Based on Machine Learning 被引量:2
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作者 Nian LIU Zhongwei YAN +6 位作者 xuan tong Jiang JIANG Haochen LI Jiangjiang XIA Xiao LOU Rui REN Yi FANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第10期1721-1733,共13页
We propose a novel machine learning approach to reconstruct meshless surface wind speed fields,i.e.,to reconstruct the surface wind speed at any location,based on meteorological background fields and geographical info... We propose a novel machine learning approach to reconstruct meshless surface wind speed fields,i.e.,to reconstruct the surface wind speed at any location,based on meteorological background fields and geographical information.The random forest method is selected to develop the machine learning data reconstruction model(MLDRM-RF)for wind speeds over Beijing from 2015-19.We use temporal,geospatial attribute and meteorological background field features as inputs.The wind speed field can be reconstructed at any station in the region not used in the training process to cross-validate model performance.The evaluation considers the spatial distribution of and seasonal variations in the root mean squared error(RMSE)of the reconstructed wind speed field across Beijing.The average RMSE is 1.09 m s^(−1),considerably smaller than the result(1.29 m s^(−1))obtained with inverse distance weighting(IDW)interpolation.Finally,we extract the important feature permutations by the method of mean decrease in impurity(MDI)and discuss the reasonableness of the model prediction results.MLDRM-RF is a reasonable approach with excellent potential for the improved reconstruction of historical surface wind speed fields with arbitrary grid resolutions.Such a model is needed in many wind applications,such as wind energy and aviation safety assessments. 展开更多
关键词 data reconstruction MESHLESS machine learning surface wind speed random forest
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Caudate lobe-sparing subtotal hepatectomy as treatment for extensive intrahepatic arterioportal fistula 被引量:2
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作者 Rui Tang Guang-Dong Wu +4 位作者 Ang Li Li-Han Yu xuan tong Jun Yan Qian Lu 《Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第4期409-411,共3页
Intrahepatic arterioportal fistulas(APFs)are abnormal hepatic artery and portal vein(PV)communications that develop as a result of congenital malformation,trauma,ruptured hepatic aneurysm,cirrhosis,tumor-related chang... Intrahepatic arterioportal fistulas(APFs)are abnormal hepatic artery and portal vein(PV)communications that develop as a result of congenital malformation,trauma,ruptured hepatic aneurysm,cirrhosis,tumor-related changes,biopsy,chemotherapy or iatrogenic causes[1,2].The most common symptoms are gastrointestinal bleeding and ascites secondary to portal hypertension;other symptoms include abdominal pain,pyrexia,edema,back pain and jaundice[3].The main goal of therapy is to decrease the portal pressure with variceal bleeding being the absolute indi-cation for surgical management.Transarterial embolization(TAE)should be the first choice to treat APFs,while resection,portocaval shunt and even transplantation may cure APFs in the case of TAE failure[4].In previous reports,caudate lobe-sparing subtotal hep-atectomy(CLSSH)has been applied for the treatment of primary hepatolithiasis and hepatocellular carcinoma[5,6].As far as we know,this is the first report describing CLSSH as treatment for an extensive intrahepatic APF,which involved segments 2 to 8,with corresponding hypertrophy of the caudate lobe. 展开更多
关键词 TREATMENT chemotherapy ARTERIAL
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Type IVa bile duct dilatation in an adult female treated with living donor liver transplantation
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作者 Hongqiang Zhao Guangxun Xu +5 位作者 Xiaojun Li xuan tong Guangdong Wu Lihan Yu Qian Lu Rui Tang 《Hepatobiliary Surgery and Nutrition》 2025年第3期526-530,共5页
A 19-year-old female complains of an abdominal lump and intermittent pain in the upper abdomen,as well as gradually occurring skin,sclera jaundice over the past 6 months.She does not have a fever and has no complaints... A 19-year-old female complains of an abdominal lump and intermittent pain in the upper abdomen,as well as gradually occurring skin,sclera jaundice over the past 6 months.She does not have a fever and has no complaints of bloating,nausea,or vomiting.Defecation is also normal,including the color of stool.Ten days ago,the patient experienced a high fever with a maximum body temperature of 39℃,accompanied by chills.This patient has no history of other illnesses or blood transfusions. 展开更多
关键词 Bile duct dilatation(BDD) living donor liver transplantation biliary fibrosis
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Ex-vivo liver resection and autotransplantation for large tumors in the caudate lobe
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作者 xuan tong Hong-Qiang Zhao +3 位作者 Guang-Dong Wu Yu-Cheng Hou Qian Lu Rui Tang 《Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International》 2026年第2期234-236,共3页
To the Editor:We paid attention to the recent article by Xiao et al.[1].They reviewed a new strategy for expanding the allograft pool,which involves using otherwise-wasted resected liver lobes from patients with large... To the Editor:We paid attention to the recent article by Xiao et al.[1].They reviewed a new strategy for expanding the allograft pool,which involves using otherwise-wasted resected liver lobes from patients with large,symptomatic benign liver tumors as liver transplant donors.Liver transplantation is the ultimate curative treatment for patients with acute or chronic end-stage liver diseases,or malignant liver tumors,but it is restricted due to the limited availability of donor organs. 展开更多
关键词 large tumors ex vivo liver resection expanding allograft poolwhich donor organs malignant liver tumorsbut autotransplantation caudate lobe allograft pool
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三重四极杆复合线性离子阱质谱联用技术在农兽药残留检测中的研究进展 被引量:5
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作者 宣彤 祝军 +7 位作者 李巧莲 王岩松 袁帅 罗景阳 蒋笑妍 李娇 刘鑫 张承昕 《化学通报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第4期451-457,共7页
三重四极杆复合线性离子阱质谱(QTRAP-MS/MS)联用技术可提供多种扫描模式,在保留良好选择性和灵敏度的同时提高仪器定性检测能力,在农兽药残留检测中具有独特优势。本文综合分析了近五年QTRAP-MS/MS在国内外农兽药残留检测中的应用现状,... 三重四极杆复合线性离子阱质谱(QTRAP-MS/MS)联用技术可提供多种扫描模式,在保留良好选择性和灵敏度的同时提高仪器定性检测能力,在农兽药残留检测中具有独特优势。本文综合分析了近五年QTRAP-MS/MS在国内外农兽药残留检测中的应用现状,从QTRAP-MS/MS的结构及原理和检测前处理等方面展开概述,并对其未来发展趋势从前处理技术、微型便携化仪器、与其他仪器联用等方面进行展望,以期为食品安全、农药兽药残留检测提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 三重四极杆线性离子阱质谱 农药残留 兽药残留
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多壁碳纳米管QuEChERS-液相色谱-串联质谱法测定粮谷中14种酰胺类杀菌剂残留量 被引量:5
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作者 李巧莲 宣彤 +4 位作者 袁帅 王岩松 罗景阳 蒋笑妍 肖舒元 《食品科技》 CAS 北大核心 2023年第5期300-307,共8页
建立基于多壁碳纳米管改进的QuEChERS净化方法,结合液相色谱-串联质谱法测定粮谷中14种酰胺类杀菌剂。样品经乙腈提取,无水硫酸镁、N-丙基乙二胺、多壁碳纳米管和十八烷基硅烷键合硅胶净化,在多反应监测模式下用正离子扫描,使14种目标... 建立基于多壁碳纳米管改进的QuEChERS净化方法,结合液相色谱-串联质谱法测定粮谷中14种酰胺类杀菌剂。样品经乙腈提取,无水硫酸镁、N-丙基乙二胺、多壁碳纳米管和十八烷基硅烷键合硅胶净化,在多反应监测模式下用正离子扫描,使14种目标化合物在Symmetry C_(18)色谱柱上分离,外标法定量。在0.10~2.50μg/L范围内14种目标化合物具有良好的线性关系,相关系数(r)均大于0.99,方法检出限为0.02~0.10μg/kg,定量限为0.10~0.30μg/kg。在5种基质中进行低中高3水平加标试验,其平均回收率为70.70%~105.00%,相对标准偏差为0.2%~11.1%(n=6)。该方法操作快捷、净化效果好、灵敏度高,适用于粮谷中酰胺类杀菌剂残留的定性定量分析。 展开更多
关键词 多壁碳纳米管 Qu ECh ERS 液相色谱-串联质谱法 粮谷 酰胺类杀菌剂
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Safety analysis of COVID-19 vaccines in liver transplant recipients:a two-center study 被引量:1
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作者 Rui Tang Chao Li +10 位作者 Guangdong Wu xuan tong Lihan Yu Huayuan Hao Rui Liao Yucheng Hou Jun Li Wenping Zhao Tieyan Fan Leida Zhang Qian Lu 《Hepatobiliary Surgery and Nutrition》 SCIE 2022年第1期166-168,共3页
Up to know,product information for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines do not include their use in patients receiving immunosuppressive medication,since they were not included in trials(1).For the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine,one case of... Up to know,product information for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines do not include their use in patients receiving immunosuppressive medication,since they were not included in trials(1).For the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine,one case of otherwise totally asymptomatic elevations of alanine aminotransferase(ALT),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),alkaline phosphatase(ALP)andγ-glutamyl transpeptidase(GGT)serum concentrations in a liver transplant recipient has been reported after the first injection(2).In the present retrospective study,we present safety outcomes of COVID-19 vaccinations in 56 liver transplant patients from two Chinese centers vaccinated with the domestic PiCoVacc,BBIBP-CorV and ZF2001 vaccines.Thirty vaccinated physicians from the Hepatopancreatobiliary Center of Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital served as control,from which 1 participant received an Ad5-nCoV vaccine.The study deadline was 2021-10-31.The observation period for adverse reactions,such as muscle pain and fatigue was 1 week,while for laboratory examinations such as liver function the follow-up period was 1 month. 展开更多
关键词 vaccines VACCINE LIVER
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Development and validation of a predictive nomogram for venous thromboembolism in adult patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation
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作者 Younan Li Rongrong Zhu +9 位作者 Junlai Zhao Zhanjiang Cao Jiyong Song Rui Tang Ang Li xuan tong Yucheng Hou Qian Lu Weiwei Wu Jiahong Dong 《Chinese Medical Journal》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第18期2254-2256,共3页
To the Editor:Venous thromboembolism(VTE)is a common complication following orthotopic liver transplantation(OLT),with an incidence of 2.8-8.6%,[1-3]which affects the quality of life of post-transplant patients.Curren... To the Editor:Venous thromboembolism(VTE)is a common complication following orthotopic liver transplantation(OLT),with an incidence of 2.8-8.6%,[1-3]which affects the quality of life of post-transplant patients.Current VTE risk assessment tools,such as the Caprini score,have limitations when applied to this population,underscoring the necessity of developing an early VTE risk assessment model tailored for OLT recipients. 展开更多
关键词 PATIENTS THROMBO EMBOLISM
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