Beginning in 2000,China initiated a series of large-scale ecological restoration projects to address the dual challenges posed by socioeconomic development and extreme climate events.This study employed Vine Copula fu...Beginning in 2000,China initiated a series of large-scale ecological restoration projects to address the dual challenges posed by socioeconomic development and extreme climate events.This study employed Vine Copula functions to develop a probabilistic assessment model for vegetation loss,quantitatively evaluating how ecological engineering implementation has modified vegetation vulnerability to compound drought-heat stress across China.We analysed temporal changes in vegetation vulnerability associated with project implementation to assess the effectiveness of different ecological engineering initiatives in reducing vegetation vulnerability.The results revealed that(1) Following ecological engineering implementation,the positive correlation between the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(KNDVI) and standardized soil moisture index(SSMI) strengthened significantly(P <0.05),whereas the relationship with the standardized temperature index(STI) shifted from negative to positive,suggesting that ecological engineering substantially modulates vegetation responses to elevated temperature and water deficit.(2) Under compound drought-heat conditions,drought intensity governed primarily vegetation vulnerability dynamics,with drought intensification increasing vulnerability by approximately 10% compared with only 2.6% under high-temperature stress.Ecological engineering had significant effects on vegetation vulnerability(P<0.001),although with pronounced regional heterogeneity:southern China experienced the most substantial improvements,whereas central Inner Mongolia and the Xizang Autonomous Region experienced increased vulnerability following project implementation.(3) Different ecological restoration project types demonstrated varying efficacy in terms of reducing vegetation vulnerability under compound drought-heat conditions.The Rocky Desertification Comprehensive Control Program in Southwest Karst Areas,the Pearl River Basin Shelterbelt Development Program,and the Yangtze River Basin Shelterbelt Development Program consistently reduced the vegetation loss probability across diverse compound drought-heat scenarios(0.29,0.26,and 0.20,respectively),whereas the Sanjiangyuan Ecological Conservation and Restoration Program showed marginal increases in vulnerability(0.01).Therefore,a comprehensive understanding of vegetation vulnerability to compound drought-heat stress from an ecological engineering perspective and a rigorous evaluation of restoration benefits will provide critical scientific foundations for mitigating ecosystem degradation and enhancing ecosystem resilience.展开更多
基金supported by the Joint Innovation and Development Project of Chongqing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.CSTB2025NSCQ-LZX0118)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42201124)+1 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M740433)the Chongqing Entrepreneurship and Innovation Support Program(Grant No.2204012976986965)。
文摘Beginning in 2000,China initiated a series of large-scale ecological restoration projects to address the dual challenges posed by socioeconomic development and extreme climate events.This study employed Vine Copula functions to develop a probabilistic assessment model for vegetation loss,quantitatively evaluating how ecological engineering implementation has modified vegetation vulnerability to compound drought-heat stress across China.We analysed temporal changes in vegetation vulnerability associated with project implementation to assess the effectiveness of different ecological engineering initiatives in reducing vegetation vulnerability.The results revealed that(1) Following ecological engineering implementation,the positive correlation between the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(KNDVI) and standardized soil moisture index(SSMI) strengthened significantly(P <0.05),whereas the relationship with the standardized temperature index(STI) shifted from negative to positive,suggesting that ecological engineering substantially modulates vegetation responses to elevated temperature and water deficit.(2) Under compound drought-heat conditions,drought intensity governed primarily vegetation vulnerability dynamics,with drought intensification increasing vulnerability by approximately 10% compared with only 2.6% under high-temperature stress.Ecological engineering had significant effects on vegetation vulnerability(P<0.001),although with pronounced regional heterogeneity:southern China experienced the most substantial improvements,whereas central Inner Mongolia and the Xizang Autonomous Region experienced increased vulnerability following project implementation.(3) Different ecological restoration project types demonstrated varying efficacy in terms of reducing vegetation vulnerability under compound drought-heat conditions.The Rocky Desertification Comprehensive Control Program in Southwest Karst Areas,the Pearl River Basin Shelterbelt Development Program,and the Yangtze River Basin Shelterbelt Development Program consistently reduced the vegetation loss probability across diverse compound drought-heat scenarios(0.29,0.26,and 0.20,respectively),whereas the Sanjiangyuan Ecological Conservation and Restoration Program showed marginal increases in vulnerability(0.01).Therefore,a comprehensive understanding of vegetation vulnerability to compound drought-heat stress from an ecological engineering perspective and a rigorous evaluation of restoration benefits will provide critical scientific foundations for mitigating ecosystem degradation and enhancing ecosystem resilience.
