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The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons:Current Status and Future Perspectives
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作者 Tianjun ZHOU xiaolong chen +11 位作者 Wenxia ZHANG Bo WU Ziming chen Jie JIANG Xin HUANG Shuai HU Meng ZUO Wenmin MAN Lixia ZHANG Zhun GUO Pengfei LIN Lu WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2026年第1期30-58,共29页
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk... The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions. 展开更多
关键词 global monsoons interannual variability decadal variability detection and attribution climate extreme events projection uncertainty
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A Year Marked by Extreme Precipitation and Floods:Weather and Climate Extremes in 2024 被引量:1
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作者 Wenxia ZHANG Tianjun ZHOU +17 位作者 Wanheng YE Tingyu ZHANG Lixia ZHANG Piotr WOLSKI James RISBEY Zhuo WANG Seung-Ki MIN Hamish RAMSAY Michael BRODY Alice GRIMM Robin CLARK Kangnian REN Jie JIANG xiaolong chen Shenming FU Lan LI Shijie TANG Shuai HU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第6期1045-1063,共19页
This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ... This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes. 展开更多
关键词 weather and climate extremes extreme precipitation tropical cyclones DROUGHTS
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Multi-Interval-Aggregation Failure Point Approximation for Remaining Useful Life Prediction
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作者 Linchuan Fan xiaolong chen +1 位作者 Shuo Li Yi Chai 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 2025年第3期639-641,共3页
Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degra... Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degradation information to improve the prediction accuracy of degradation value or health indicator for the next epoch.However,they ignore the cumulative prediction error caused by iterations before reaching the failure point. 展开更多
关键词 remaining useful life prediction failure point degradation value health indicator multi interval aggregation failure point approximation machine learning based mining degradation information
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Radar Micro-Doppler Parameter Estimation Method Based on Gated Dual-Path Dynamic-Wavelet Convolutional Network
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作者 Jinhao Wang xiaolong chen +2 位作者 Xinghai Wang Jian Guan Xiaolin Du 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 2025年第6期566-576,共11页
Micro-Doppler parameter estimation is crucial for moving targets.However,conventional methods face limitations like inadequate time-frequency(TF)resolution and poor generalization,while existing deep learning approach... Micro-Doppler parameter estimation is crucial for moving targets.However,conventional methods face limitations like inadequate time-frequency(TF)resolution and poor generalization,while existing deep learning approaches often treat TF analysis as a fixed preprocessing step.To overcome these challenges,this paper introduces a radar micro-Doppler parameter estimation method based on a gated dual-path dynamic-wavelet convolutional network(GDWCN).The GDWCN is an end-to-end deep learning framework that maps raw radar signals to micro-motion parameters by integrating clutter suppression,gated dual-path module,feature extraction,and parameter regression.Its core innovation is a gated dual-path module that combines dynamic convolution and learnable wavelet convolution,selecting the optimal processing path based on input signal characteristics.For the Inspire 2 drone,GDWCN reduced the mean absolute error(MAE)of frequency estimation by approximately 38%compared to the enhanced time-frequency micro-Doppler network,and its relative error by approximately 69%compared to the short-time Fourier transform(STFT),and 58%over the local maximum synchroextracting transform.Ablation studies further confirm the efficacy of the clutter suppression module and the attention mechanism. 展开更多
关键词 parameter estimation radar signal processing deep learning time-frequency analysis
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Database of superconductors with kagome lattice by high-throughput screening
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作者 Lihong Wang Qi Li +3 位作者 Ke Ma Yingpeng Yu Shifeng Jin xiaolong chen 《Chinese Physics B》 2025年第10期213-220,共8页
The kagome lattice,characterized by a hexagonal arrangement of corner-sharing equilateral triangles,has garnered significant attention as a fascinating quantum material system that hosts exotic magnetic and electronic... The kagome lattice,characterized by a hexagonal arrangement of corner-sharing equilateral triangles,has garnered significant attention as a fascinating quantum material system that hosts exotic magnetic and electronic properties.The identification and characterization of this class of materials are critical for advancing our understanding of their role in emergent phenomena such as superconductivity.In this study,we developed a high-throughput screening framework for the systematic identification and classification of superconducting materials with kagome lattices,integrating them into established materials databases.Leveraging the Materials Project(MP)database and the MDR Super Con dataset,we analyzed over 150000 inorganic compounds and cross-referenced 26000 known superconductors.Using geometry-based structural modeling and experimental validation,we identified 129 kagome superconductors belonging to 17 distinct structural families,many of which had not previously been recognized as kagome systems.The materials are further classified into three categories in terms of topological flat bands,clean band structures,and coexisting magnetic or charge density wave(CDW)orderings.Based on these results,we established a database comprising 129 kagome superconductors,including the detailed crystallographic,electronic,and superconducting properties of these materials. 展开更多
关键词 SUPERCONDUCTOR kagome lattice DATABASE
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蔗糖磷酸化酶及其在糖基化反应中的应用 被引量:6
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作者 江瑞妮 叶康 +4 位作者 甘恬 陆跃乐 朱林江 陈小龙 陈翰驰 《生物工程学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第1期112-129,共18页
糖基化反应能有效改善化合物的水溶性、稳定性、生物利用度等性质,利用糖苷水解酶类和糖基转移酶类对生物活性化合物进行糖基化修饰已成为研究热点。相比于糖基转移酶类,糖苷水解酶类在大规模催化中具有来源丰富、成本低的优势。其中,... 糖基化反应能有效改善化合物的水溶性、稳定性、生物利用度等性质,利用糖苷水解酶类和糖基转移酶类对生物活性化合物进行糖基化修饰已成为研究热点。相比于糖基转移酶类,糖苷水解酶类在大规模催化中具有来源丰富、成本低的优势。其中,蔗糖磷酸化酶因其卓越的糖基化活性和广泛的底物特异性,在化工领域受到人们的广泛关注。文中综述了蔗糖磷酸化酶的结构与催化特性,概述了蔗糖磷酸化酶的定向改造,同时系统性地总结了蔗糖磷酸化酶在糖基化反应中的应用及与其他酶的联合应用。并且,基于蔗糖磷酸化酶的研究现状,结合笔者研究团队的多年工作经验,探讨了该课题的未来发展方向。 展开更多
关键词 糖基化作用 碳水化合物活性酶 蔗糖磷酸化酶 酶改造 结构修饰
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气象雷达探鸟技术综述 被引量:6
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作者 陈唯实 刘佳 +4 位作者 王青斌 卢贤锋 张洁 陈小龙 黄毅峰 《航空学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第5期21-39,共19页
气象雷达组网特别适用于大陆范围内鸟类大规模活动的观测。首先介绍了美国和欧洲相对成熟的基于气象雷达组网的鸟情预警系统,并对二者的性能进行了对比分析。然后,从目标回波幅度、高度分布、飞行速度和方向等方面分析了气象雷达飞鸟目... 气象雷达组网特别适用于大陆范围内鸟类大规模活动的观测。首先介绍了美国和欧洲相对成熟的基于气象雷达组网的鸟情预警系统,并对二者的性能进行了对比分析。然后,从目标回波幅度、高度分布、飞行速度和方向等方面分析了气象雷达飞鸟目标的回波特性,进而讨论了杂波抑制、气象信息剔除、飞鸟目标特征提取、机器学习、交叉验证等气象雷达鸟情信息提取技术。在此基础上,介绍了气象雷达组网探鸟在鸟类生态学研究和鸟击防范方面的应用。最后,从探测覆盖范围和气象雷达系统性能2个方面,讨论了在中国建立基于气象雷达组网的全国鸟情预警系统的初步构想。 展开更多
关键词 气象雷达 杂波抑制 机器学习 鸟情预警 鸟击防范
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Comparison of survival outcomes between transthoracic and transabdominal surgical approaches in patients with Siewert-Ⅱ/Ⅲesophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma:a single-institution retrospective cohort study 被引量:10
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作者 Weihan Zhang Xinzu chen +7 位作者 Kai Liu Kun Yang xiaolong chen Ying Zhao Yongfan Zhao Jiaping chen Longqi chen Jiankun Hu 《Chinese Journal of Cancer Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第4期413-422,共10页
Objective: To compare the survival outcomes of transabdominal (TA) and transthoracic (TT) surgical approaches in patients with Siewert-II/III esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma. Methods: This retrospective ... Objective: To compare the survival outcomes of transabdominal (TA) and transthoracic (TT) surgical approaches in patients with Siewert-II/III esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted in patients with Siewert-II/III esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma who underwent either TT or TA operations in the West China Hospital between January 2006 and December 2009. Results: A total of 308 patients (109 in the TT and 199 in the TA groups) were included in this study with a follow-up rate of 87.3%. The median (P25, P75) number of harvested perigastric lymph nodes was 8 (5, 10) in the TT group and 23 (16, 34) in the TA group (P〈0.001), and the number of positive perigastric lymph nodes was 2 (0, 5) in the TT group and 3 (1, 8) in the TA group (P〈0.004). The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 36% in the TT group and 51% in the TA group (P=0.005). Subgroup analysis by Siewert classification showed that 5-year OS rates for patients with Siewert II tumors were 38% and 48% in TT and TA groups, respectively (P=0.134), whereas the 5-year OS rate for patients with Siewert III tumors was significantly lower in the TT group than that in the TA group (33% vs. 53%; P=0.010). Multivariate analysis indicated that N2 and N3 stages, RI/R2 resection and a TT surgical approach were prognostic factors for poor OS. Conclusions: Improved perigastric lymph node dissection may be the main reason for better survival outcomes observed with a TA gastrectomy approach than with TT gastrectomy for Siewert III tumor patients. 展开更多
关键词 Siewert classification adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction TRANSTHORACIC transabdominal prognosis
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A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain 被引量:7
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作者 Tianjun Zhou xiaolong chen +6 位作者 Bo Wu Zhun Guo Yong Sun Liwei Zou Wenmin Man Lixia Zhang Chao He 《Engineering》 SCIE EI 2017年第5期773-778,共6页
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Impro... The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain. 展开更多
关键词 East Asian monsoon Western North Pacific climate El Nino-Southern Oscillation Past climate change Climate projection Coupled climate model Regional climate model
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Expression and function of Delta-like ligand 4 in a rat model of retinopathy of prematurity 被引量:4
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作者 Shaoyang Shi Xun Li +3 位作者 You Li Cunwen Pei Hongwei Yang xiaolong chen 《Neural Regeneration Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第8期723-730,共8页
The Delta-like ligand 4/Notch signaling pathway was shown to participate in the process of retinal development and angiogenesis. However, the function of the Delta-like ligand 4/Notch signaling pathway in retinopathy ... The Delta-like ligand 4/Notch signaling pathway was shown to participate in the process of retinal development and angiogenesis. However, the function of the Delta-like ligand 4/Notch signaling pathway in retinopathy of prematurity requires further study. Retinopathy of prematurity was induced in 5-day-old Sprague-Dawley rats exposed to hyperoxia for 7 days, and then returned to room air. Reverse transcription-PCR and western blot revealed that Delta-like ligand 4 levels decreased at postnatal day 12 and increased at postnatal day 17 in retinopathy of prematurity rats. Flat-mounted adenosine diphosphatase stained retina and hematoxylin-eosin stained retinal tissue slices showed that the clock hour scores and the nuclei counts in retinopathy of prematurity rats were significantly different compared to normal control rats. After retinopathy of prematurity rats were intravitreally injected with Delta-like ligand 4 monoclonal antibody to inhibit the Delta-like ligand 4/Notch signaling pathway, there was a significant increase in the severity of retinal neovascularization (clock hours) in the intravitreally injected eyes. The nuclei count was highly correlated with the clock hour score. These results suggest that Delta-like ligand 4/Notch signaling plays an essential role in the process of physiological and pathological angiogenesis in the retina. 展开更多
关键词 neural regeneration peripheral nerve injury Delta-like ligand 4 retinopathy of prematurity retinalneovascularization vascular endothelial cells vascular endothelial growth factor Notch signalingpathway oxygen-induced retinopathy optic nerve disease photographs-containing paper NEUROREGENERATION
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Seasonal Prediction of the Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2021 被引量:6
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作者 Shuai HU Tianjun ZHOU +1 位作者 Bo WU xiaolong chen 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第3期410-427,共18页
The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captu... The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions,a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern China.However,the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July 2021 and its seasonal predictability are still unknown.Here,the observed northward shift of the WPSH in July 2021 is shown to correspond to a meridional dipole pattern of the 850-hPa geopotential height to the east of China,the amplitude of which became the strongest since 1979.The meridional dipole pattern is two nodes of the Pacific–Japan pattern.To investigate the predictability of the WPSH variation,a 21-member ensemble of seasonal predictions initiated from the end of June 2021 was conducted.The predictable and unpredictable components of the meridional dipole pattern were identified from the ensemble simulations.Its predictable component is driven by positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical western Pacific.The positive precipitation anomalies are caused by positive horizonal advection of the mean moist enthalpy by southwesterly anomalies to the northwestern flank of anticyclonic anomalies excited by the existing La Niña,which is skillfully predicted by the model.The leading mode of the unpredictable component is associated with the atmospheric internal intraseasonal oscillations,which are not initialized in the simulations.The relative contributions of the predictable and unpredictable components to the observed northward shift of the WPSH at 850 hPa are 28.0%and 72.0%,respectively. 展开更多
关键词 western pacific subtropical high seasonal prediction seasonal predictability La Niña Pacific-Japan pattern
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Volcanoes and Climate:Sizing up the Impact of the Recent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption from a Historical Perspective 被引量:6
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作者 Meng ZUO Tianjun ZHOU +4 位作者 Wenmin MAN xiaolong chen Jian LIU Fei LIU Chaochao GAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第12期1986-1993,共8页
An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai(HTHH)near the South Pacific island nation of Tonga,erupted violently on 15 January 2022.Potential climate impact of the HTHH volcanic eruption is of great concern t... An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai(HTHH)near the South Pacific island nation of Tonga,erupted violently on 15 January 2022.Potential climate impact of the HTHH volcanic eruption is of great concern to the public;here,we intend to size up the impact of the HTHH eruption from a historical perspective.The influence of historical volcanic eruptions on the global climate are firstly reviewed,which are thought to have contributed to decreased surface temperature,increased stratospheric temperature,suppressed global water cycle,weakened monsoon circulation and El Niño-like sea surface temperature.Our understanding of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on global-scale climate provides potential implication to evaluate the impact of the HTHH eruption.Based on historical simulations,we estimate that the current HTHH eruption with an intensity of 0.4 Tg SO_(2)injection will decrease the global mean surface temperature by only 0.004℃in the first year after eruption,which is within the amplitude of internal variability at the interannual time scale and thus not strong enough to have significant impacts on the global climate. 展开更多
关键词 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption global climate surface temperature MONSOON ENSO
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癌结节与结直肠癌患者临床病理因素及预后关系的研究 被引量:7
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作者 陈鹏 左忠林 +4 位作者 冯立波 陈小龙 胡欣雨 刘庆 夏冬 《中国肿瘤临床》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第15期773-779,共7页
目的:分析结直肠癌中与癌结节(tumordeposits,TD)状态及数目相关的临床病理因素,探讨与验证第8版TNM分期中TD 分期方法的合理性。方法:回顾性分析2013年8月至2017年12月于西南医科大学附属医院行根治术的结直肠癌患者病例资料, 对患者... 目的:分析结直肠癌中与癌结节(tumordeposits,TD)状态及数目相关的临床病理因素,探讨与验证第8版TNM分期中TD 分期方法的合理性。方法:回顾性分析2013年8月至2017年12月于西南医科大学附属医院行根治术的结直肠癌患者病例资料, 对患者生存情况进行随访,分析不同TD状态及数目下各临床病理因素的分布差异及预后区别,并从预后的角度验证第8版TNM 分期中TD分期方法的合理性。结果:T分期是TD发生的独立危险因素,肿瘤分化程度是TD数目的独立危险因素。TD阴性组预 后优于TD阳性组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.001)。 生存曲线随着TD数目的增加而逐渐降低(P<0.05),但 TD=2组与TD=3组间 生存曲线差异无统计学意义(P=0.186)。 依据cutoff值将TD分为TD=1、TD=2~ 3与TD≥4具有明显预后差异的三组。同属于ⅢB 期的T3~ 4aN1c期与T3~ 4aN1a/1b期预后不同(P=0.022)。 相同数量TD与区域淋巴结转移预后不完全相同。结论:结直肠癌合 并TD提示预后不良。不同TD数目对预后的影响不同,TD=1、TD=2~ 3及TD≥4是三个可能的分层标准。第8版TNM分期中的 TD分期方法可能不甚合理。 展开更多
关键词 癌结节 结直肠癌 预后 TNM分期
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热障涂层陶瓷层材料LnMgAl11O19(Ln=La,Nd)粉体的性能 被引量:5
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作者 李(王莹) 陈小龙 +1 位作者 孙超 宫骏 《材料研究学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第6期409-418,共10页
用共沉淀法制备LaMgAl11O19粉体,证明了提高沉淀温度和pH值可使前驱粉体的性能明显提高。应用差热分析和X射线法研究了磁铅石相的生成温度和粉体的结晶度;使用Scherrer 公式并结合XRD谱计算了晶粒尺寸;用扫描电镜观察了各工艺参数的前... 用共沉淀法制备LaMgAl11O19粉体,证明了提高沉淀温度和pH值可使前驱粉体的性能明显提高。应用差热分析和X射线法研究了磁铅石相的生成温度和粉体的结晶度;使用Scherrer 公式并结合XRD谱计算了晶粒尺寸;用扫描电镜观察了各工艺参数的前驱粉体在1500℃时效5 h后的形貌;使用Malvern ZEN3600粒度仪和Manual measurement软件分析了粉体硬团聚的尺寸分布;用Nd2O3, Gd2O3, Sm2O3替代La2O3,研究了制备多种镁基六铝酸盐粉体的可行性。结果表明:在pH值为11.5、沉淀温度为60℃条件下制备的前驱粉体,其完全相变为纯LaMgAl11O19粉体的初始温度为1440℃,比在常温下沉淀的前驱粉体降低了150℃,磁铅石相的生成效率明显提高。在1500℃时效5 h的粉体其晶粒为纳米尺度。提高沉淀温度和pH值有利于减小晶粒尺寸和降低粉体的热导率。采用相同工艺参数可制备出纯NdMgAl11O19粉体,其晶粒尺寸略大于LaMgAl11O19粉体的尺寸。 展开更多
关键词 无机非金属材料 磁铅石相 镁基六铝酸镧 沉淀温度 沉淀pH值 晶粒尺寸
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Traffic Flow Data Forecasting Based on Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets Theory 被引量:5
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作者 Runmei Li Chaoyang Jiang +1 位作者 Fenghua Zhu xiaolong chen 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI 2016年第2期141-148,共8页
This paper proposes a long-term forecasting scheme and implementation method based on the interval type-2 fuzzy sets theory for traffic flow data. The type-2 fuzzy sets have advantages in modeling uncertainties becaus... This paper proposes a long-term forecasting scheme and implementation method based on the interval type-2 fuzzy sets theory for traffic flow data. The type-2 fuzzy sets have advantages in modeling uncertainties because their membership functions are fuzzy. The scheme includes traffic flow data preprocessing module, type-2 fuzzification operation module and long-term traffic flow data forecasting output module, in which the Interval Approach acts as the core algorithm. The central limit theorem is adopted to convert point data of mass traffic flow in some time range into interval data of the same time range (also called confidence interval data) which is being used as the input of interval approach. The confidence interval data retain the uncertainty and randomness of traffic flow, meanwhile reduce the influence of noise from the detection data. The proposed scheme gets not only the traffic flow forecasting result but also can show the possible range of traffic flow variation with high precision using upper and lower limit forecasting result. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is verified using the actual sample application. © 2014 Chinese Association of Automation. 展开更多
关键词 Data handling Forecasting Fuzzy sets Membership functions Uncertainty analysis
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Adaptive Robust Control for a Lower Limbs Rehabilitation Robot Running Under Passive Training Mode 被引量:3
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作者 xiaolong chen Han Zhao +1 位作者 Shengchao Zhen Hao Sun 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2019年第2期493-502,共10页
This paper focuses on the problem of the adaptive robust control of a lower limbs rehabilitation robot(LLRR) that is a nonlinear system running under passive training mode. In reality, uncertainties including modeling... This paper focuses on the problem of the adaptive robust control of a lower limbs rehabilitation robot(LLRR) that is a nonlinear system running under passive training mode. In reality, uncertainties including modeling error, initial condition deviation, friction force and other unknown external disturbances always exist in a LLRR system. So, it is necessary to consider the uncertainties in the unilateral man-machine dynamical model of the LLRR we described. In the dynamical model, uncertainties are(possibly fast) time-varying and bounded. However, the bounds are unknown. Based on the dynamical model, we design an adaptive robust control with an adaptive law that is leakagetype based and on the framework of Udwadia-Kalaba theory to compensate for the uncertainties and to realize tracking control of the LLRR. Furthermore, the effectiveness of designed control is shown with numerical simulations. 展开更多
关键词 Adaptive robust control LOWER LIMBS REHABILITATION robot mechanical system PASSIVE TRAINING UNCERTAINTIES
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The FGOALS climate system model as a modeling tool for supporting climate sciences:An overview 被引量:8
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作者 TianJun Zhou Bin Wang +18 位作者 YongQiang Yu YiMin Liu WeiPeng Zheng LiJuan Li Bo Wu PengFei Lin Zhun Guo WenMin Man Qing Bao AnMin Duan HaiLong Liu xiaolong chen Bian He JianDong Li LiWei Zou XiaoCong Wang LiXia Zhang Yong Sun WenXia Zhang 《Earth and Planetary Physics》 2018年第4期276-291,共16页
Climate system models are useful tools for understanding the interactions among the components of the climate system and predicting/projecting future climate change. The development of climate models has been a centra... Climate system models are useful tools for understanding the interactions among the components of the climate system and predicting/projecting future climate change. The development of climate models has been a central focus of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences(LASG/IAP) since the establishment of the laboratory in 1985. In China, many pioneering component models and fully coupled models of the climate system have been developed by LASG/IAP. The fully coupled climate system developed in the recent decade is named FGOALS(Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model). In this paper, an application-oriented review of the LASG/IAP FGOALS model is presented. The improved model performances are demonstrated in the context of cloud-radiation processes, Asian monsoon, ENSO phenomena, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC) and sea ice. The FGOALS model has contributed to both CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-phase 5) and IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR5(the Fifth Assessment Report). The release of FGOALS data has supported the publication of nearly 500 papers around the world. The results of FGOALS are cited ~106 times in the IPCC WG1(Working Group 1) AR5. In addition to the traditional long-term simulations and projections, near-term decadal climate prediction is a new set of CMIP experiment, progress of LAGS/IAP in the development of nearterm decadal prediction system is reviewed. The FGOALS model has supported many Chinese national-level research projects and contributed to the national climate change assessment report. The crucial role of FGOALS as a modeling tool for supporting climate sciences is highlighted by demonstrating the model's performances in the simulation of the evolution of Earth's climate from the past to the future. 展开更多
关键词 CLIMATE system model FGOALS CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE CHANGE
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The Super-large Ensemble Experiments of CAS FGOALS-g3 被引量:3
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作者 Pengfei LIN Bowen ZHAO +15 位作者 Jilin WEI Hailong LIU Wenxia ZHANG xiaolong chen Jie JIANG Mengrong DING Wenmin MAN Jinrong JIANG Xu ZHANG Yuewen DING Wenrong BAI chenyang JIN Zipeng YU Yiwen LI Weipeng ZHENG Tianjun ZHOU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第10期1746-1765,I0021-I0025,共25页
A super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members has been produced by the fully coupled model FGOALS-g3 developed by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.This is th... A super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members has been produced by the fully coupled model FGOALS-g3 developed by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.This is the first dataset of large ensemble simulations with a climate system model developed by a Chinese modeling center.The simulation has the largest realizations up to now worldwide in terms of single-model initial-condition large ensembles.Each member includes a historical experiment(1850-2014)and an experiment(2015-99)under the very high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario(SSP5-8.5).The dataset includes monthly and daily temperature,precipitation,and other variables,requiring storage of 275 TB.Additionally,the surface air temperature(SAT)and land precipitation simulated by the FGOALS-g3 super-large ensemble have been validated and projected.The ensemble can capture the response of SAT and land precipitation to external forcings well,and the internal variabilities can be quantified.The availability of more than 100 realizations will help researchers to study rare events and improve the understanding of the impact of internal variability on forced climate changes. 展开更多
关键词 large ensemble forced response internal variability climate change
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Assessing Global Warming Induced Changes in Summer Rainfall Variability over Eastern China Using the Latest Hadley Centre Climate Model HadGEM3-GC2 被引量:3
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作者 Yawen DUAN Peili WU +1 位作者 xiaolong chen Zhuguo MA 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第8期181-197,共17页
Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China axe characterized spatially by meridionally banded structnres fluctu- ating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In add... Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China axe characterized spatially by meridionally banded structnres fluctu- ating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CQ simulation and the model's pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from exces- sive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes. 展开更多
关键词 rainfall variability global warming ENSO HadGEM3-GC2
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Early Warning of Heavy Metal Pollution after Tailing Pond Failure Accident 被引量:2
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作者 Yonggui Wang Yinqun Yang +2 位作者 Qiang Li Yaxin Zhang xiaolong chen 《Journal of Earth Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第4期1047-1055,共9页
Heavy metal pollution is a major issue after tailing pond failure accident.It is important to predict pollution trends for limited data of pollution sources.A simple phase separation heavy metal model was built for ea... Heavy metal pollution is a major issue after tailing pond failure accident.It is important to predict pollution trends for limited data of pollution sources.A simple phase separation heavy metal model was built for early warning simulation of heavy metal pollution accidents.Based on this,a new simulation framework has been developed to predict the pollution trends of the downstream according to the measured data at upstream sections.By setting the upstream monitoring date as the inflow boundary condition,the changing processes of heavy metal manganese(Mn) with different phases in the downstream can be accurately simulated and forecasted.Results showed that the concentration of the suspended phase in the downstream was larger than that in the aqueous phase and sediment phase.With this,the early warning of pollution trends after accidents could be made a few days ahead.It indicates that the impact of sediment on heavy metal should not be ignored in the early warning of tailing pond failure accidents. 展开更多
关键词 heavy metal pollution early warning tailing pond failure accident phase separation MODEL
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