[ Objective] The study aimed to forecast the first flowering date of Osmanthus fragrans. [ Method] Based on the data about flowering stage of O. fragrans in Guilin City from 1999 -2012, the correlation between meteoro...[ Objective] The study aimed to forecast the first flowering date of Osmanthus fragrans. [ Method] Based on the data about flowering stage of O. fragrans in Guilin City from 1999 -2012, the correlation between meteorological factors and the first flowering date of O. fragrans was analyzed, and a forecast model for the first flowering date of O. fragrans was established. EResult] Among meteorological factors, precipitation, humidity, temperature and sunshine hours could obviously affect the first flowering date of O. fragrans, especially humidity in August, temperature and sunshine hours in September. The forecast model could exactly forecast the first flowering date in the partial early or too late year, and the av- erage error of date was 6 days. The factors influencing the first flowering date of O. fragrans are complex, and there is an artificial error in record data of the flowering stage, so using a single model to forecast the first flowering date have some disadvantages. When forecasting the first flower- ing date, we should consider all influencing factors to get a good forecast result. [ Conclusion] The research could provide a new method to forecast the first flowednq date of O. fraclrans.展开更多
Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of dr...Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of drought in Guilin. Afterwards, by using the method of disaster risk assessment, the disaster-causing factors, breed disasters environment and fragility of hazard-bearing body of Guilin drought have been analyzed, and the comprehensive evaluation on drought disaster has been made. The results show that above medium drought in Guilin mainly appeared in au- tumn, followed by winter, while Guilin only suffered from slight drought in spring; the principal period of drought occurrence in Guilin was six years, while its secondary period was two years; on the whole, drought risk was high in the southeast and low in the northwest.展开更多
基金Supported by the Scientific Research and Technological Development Project of Guilin City ( 20100317)
文摘[ Objective] The study aimed to forecast the first flowering date of Osmanthus fragrans. [ Method] Based on the data about flowering stage of O. fragrans in Guilin City from 1999 -2012, the correlation between meteorological factors and the first flowering date of O. fragrans was analyzed, and a forecast model for the first flowering date of O. fragrans was established. EResult] Among meteorological factors, precipitation, humidity, temperature and sunshine hours could obviously affect the first flowering date of O. fragrans, especially humidity in August, temperature and sunshine hours in September. The forecast model could exactly forecast the first flowering date in the partial early or too late year, and the av- erage error of date was 6 days. The factors influencing the first flowering date of O. fragrans are complex, and there is an artificial error in record data of the flowering stage, so using a single model to forecast the first flowering date have some disadvantages. When forecasting the first flower- ing date, we should consider all influencing factors to get a good forecast result. [ Conclusion] The research could provide a new method to forecast the first flowednq date of O. fraclrans.
基金Supported by the Key Project of Guangxi Meteorological Bureau " Agricultural Weather Service Platform of Guangxi at the City or County Level" (201101)
文摘Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of drought in Guilin. Afterwards, by using the method of disaster risk assessment, the disaster-causing factors, breed disasters environment and fragility of hazard-bearing body of Guilin drought have been analyzed, and the comprehensive evaluation on drought disaster has been made. The results show that above medium drought in Guilin mainly appeared in au- tumn, followed by winter, while Guilin only suffered from slight drought in spring; the principal period of drought occurrence in Guilin was six years, while its secondary period was two years; on the whole, drought risk was high in the southeast and low in the northwest.
