This study takes the ecological resilience of coal cities as the research theme,constructs an index system including 41 constraint factors from the three dimensions of social economy,resources and the environment,and ...This study takes the ecological resilience of coal cities as the research theme,constructs an index system including 41 constraint factors from the three dimensions of social economy,resources and the environment,and takes Xuzhou as a typical case study with data from 2002 to 2023 as the original data.The GM-Markov time series prediction model and ARIMA model are used to fit the developmental prospect of ecological resilience in 2024-2040,with the aim of accurately predicting the future development trend.The results show that Xuzhou will reach the“ideal state”of ecological resilience in 2031 at the earliest and 2032 at the latest.In that state,the case city can better coordinate the contradictory relationship between the“limitation”and“need”of ecological resilience,and realize positive development of the socio-economic,resource and environmental subsystems.Then,the understanding of this research topic is deepened and the following coping strategies are proposed based on the research results:improve the collaborative digital governance co-construction model and lay a solid foundation for ecological resilience,optimize the collaborative digital co-governance mechanism to enhance the efficiency of ecological governance,adhere to the fundamental spirit of shared development and release the dividends of ecological governance.展开更多
基金The Social Sciences Innovation Development Research Project of Anhui Province(2022CX072)。
文摘This study takes the ecological resilience of coal cities as the research theme,constructs an index system including 41 constraint factors from the three dimensions of social economy,resources and the environment,and takes Xuzhou as a typical case study with data from 2002 to 2023 as the original data.The GM-Markov time series prediction model and ARIMA model are used to fit the developmental prospect of ecological resilience in 2024-2040,with the aim of accurately predicting the future development trend.The results show that Xuzhou will reach the“ideal state”of ecological resilience in 2031 at the earliest and 2032 at the latest.In that state,the case city can better coordinate the contradictory relationship between the“limitation”and“need”of ecological resilience,and realize positive development of the socio-economic,resource and environmental subsystems.Then,the understanding of this research topic is deepened and the following coping strategies are proposed based on the research results:improve the collaborative digital governance co-construction model and lay a solid foundation for ecological resilience,optimize the collaborative digital co-governance mechanism to enhance the efficiency of ecological governance,adhere to the fundamental spirit of shared development and release the dividends of ecological governance.
