This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis...This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.展开更多
Changes in arid and semi-arid regions are primarily identified through hydroclimatic and land cover variations.Therefore,analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of water-climate changes and land cover in the Great...Changes in arid and semi-arid regions are primarily identified through hydroclimatic and land cover variations.Therefore,analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of water-climate changes and land cover in the Great Lakes Depression Region in western Mongolia is crucial for studying this basin and similar areas.This research used the Mann-Kendall(MK)test,Innovative Trend Analysis Method(ITAM),Sen's Slope Estimator Test(SSET),and land cover change analysis to examine the statistical relationships among climate variability,river discharge,lake level fluctuations,and land cover changes.Air temperature increased during the study period(Z=1.16^(*)),while total annual precipitation(Z=-0.79)declined slightly.Major river discharges in the basin(Z=-3.92^(***)),as well as lake water levels(Z=-2.51^(**)),also decreased.Land cover changes were closely related to climate change,with indicators such as precipitation,river discharge,and lake water levels showing strong connections.Additionally,in 2020,basin grassland cover and bare area decreased,whereas impervious surfaces and cropland—land cover types influenced by human activity significantly increased.Consequently,future research should focus on human factors impacting the Great Lakes Depression Region in western Mongolia.展开更多
基金The National University of Mongolia,No.P2024-4814The Mongolian Science and Technology Foundation,No.CHN-2022/274The‘Chey Institute for Advanced Studies’International Scholar Exchange Fellowship for the Academic Year of 2025-2026。
文摘This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences through the PIFI Fellowship for Visiting Scientistsprovided by the Mongolian Science and Technology Foundation(Grant Nos.CHN-2022/274 and CHN-2024/12)+1 种基金by the National University of Mongolia under Grant Agreement P2024-4814the National Key Research and Development Project of China(Grant No.2022YFE0119400)。
文摘Changes in arid and semi-arid regions are primarily identified through hydroclimatic and land cover variations.Therefore,analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of water-climate changes and land cover in the Great Lakes Depression Region in western Mongolia is crucial for studying this basin and similar areas.This research used the Mann-Kendall(MK)test,Innovative Trend Analysis Method(ITAM),Sen's Slope Estimator Test(SSET),and land cover change analysis to examine the statistical relationships among climate variability,river discharge,lake level fluctuations,and land cover changes.Air temperature increased during the study period(Z=1.16^(*)),while total annual precipitation(Z=-0.79)declined slightly.Major river discharges in the basin(Z=-3.92^(***)),as well as lake water levels(Z=-2.51^(**)),also decreased.Land cover changes were closely related to climate change,with indicators such as precipitation,river discharge,and lake water levels showing strong connections.Additionally,in 2020,basin grassland cover and bare area decreased,whereas impervious surfaces and cropland—land cover types influenced by human activity significantly increased.Consequently,future research should focus on human factors impacting the Great Lakes Depression Region in western Mongolia.
