Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
This study proposes a novel visual maintenance method for photovoltaic(PV)modules based on a two-stage Wiener degradation model,addressing the limitations of traditional PV maintenance strategies that often result in ...This study proposes a novel visual maintenance method for photovoltaic(PV)modules based on a two-stage Wiener degradation model,addressing the limitations of traditional PV maintenance strategies that often result in insufficient or excessive maintenance.The approach begins by constructing a two-stage Wiener process performance degradation model and a remaining life prediction model under perfect maintenance conditions using historical degradation data of PV modules.This enables accurate determination of the optimal timing for postfailure corrective maintenance.To optimize the maintenance strategy,the study establishes a comprehensive cost model aimed at minimizing the long-term average cost rate.The model considers multiple cost factors,including inspection costs,preventive maintenance costs,restorative maintenance costs,and penalty costs associated with delayed fault detection.Through this optimization framework,the method determines both the optimal maintenance threshold and the ideal timing for predictive maintenance actions.Comparative analysis demonstrates that the twostage Wiener model provides superior fitting performance compared to conventional linear and nonlinear degradation models.When evaluated against traditional maintenance approaches,including Wiener process-based corrective maintenance strategies and static periodic maintenance strategies,the proposed method demonstrates significant advantages in reducing overall operational costs while extending the effective service life of PV components.The method achieves these improvements through effective coordination between reliability optimization and economic benefit maximization,leading to enhanced power generation performance.These results indicate that the proposed approach offers a more balanced and efficient solution for PV system maintenance.展开更多
With increasing reforms related to integrated energy systems(IESs),each energy subsystem,as a participant based on bounded rationality,significantly influences the optimal scheduling of the entire IES through mutual l...With increasing reforms related to integrated energy systems(IESs),each energy subsystem,as a participant based on bounded rationality,significantly influences the optimal scheduling of the entire IES through mutual learning and imitation.A reasonable multiagent joint operation strategy can help this system meet its low-carbon objectives.This paper proposes a bilayer low-carbon optimal operational strategy for an IES based on the Stackelberg master-slave game and multiagent joint operation.The studied IES includes cogeneration,power-to-gas,and carbon capture systems.Based on the Stackelberg master-slave game theory,sellers are used as leaders in the upper layer to set the prices of electricity and heat,while energy producers,energy storage providers,and load aggregators are used as followers in the lower layer to adjust the operational strategy of the system.An IES bilayer optimization model based on the Stackelberg master-slave game was developed.Finally,the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)condition and linear relaxation technology are used to convert the bilayer game model to a single layer.CPLEX,which is a mathematical program solver,is used to solve the equilibrium problem and the carbon emission trading cost of the system when the benefits of each subject reach maximum and to analyze the impact of different carbon emission trading prices and growth rates on the operational strategy of the system.As an experimental demonstration,we simulated an IES coupled with an IEEE 39-node electrical grid system,a six-node heat network system,and a six-node gas network system.The simulation results confirm the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.展开更多
At present,the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power generation systems mainly comprise regular maintenance,breakdown maintenance,and condition-based maintenance,which is very likely to lead to over-or under...At present,the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power generation systems mainly comprise regular maintenance,breakdown maintenance,and condition-based maintenance,which is very likely to lead to over-or under-repair of equipment.Therefore,a preventive maintenance and replacement strategy for PV power generation systems based on reliability as a constraint is proposed.First,a hybrid failure function with a decreasing service age factor and an increasing failure rate factor is introduced to describe the deterioration of PV power generation equipment,and the equipment is replaced when its reliability drops to the replacement threshold in the last cycle.Then,based on the reliability as a constraint,the average maintenance cost and availability of the equipment are considered,and the non-periodic incomplete maintenance model of the PV power generation system is established to obtain the optimal number of repairs,each maintenance cycle and the replacement cycle of the PV power generation system components.Next,the inverter of a PV power plant is used as a research object.The model in this paper is compared and analyzed with the equal cycle maintenance model without considering reliability and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold,Through model comparison,when the optimal maintenance strategy is(0.80,4),the average maintenance cost of this paper’s model are decreased by 20.3%and 5.54%and the availability is increased by 0.2395% and 0.0337%,respectively,compared with the equal-cycle maintenance model without considering the reliability constraint and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold.Therefore,this maintenance model can ensure the high reliability of PV plant operation while increasing the equipment availability to improve the system economy.展开更多
In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power su...In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.展开更多
Wind turbine maintenance optimization faces challenges in balancing economic efficiency with operational reliability under environmental uncertainty.Traditional maintenance approaches exhibit limitations in adaptive d...Wind turbine maintenance optimization faces challenges in balancing economic efficiency with operational reliability under environmental uncertainty.Traditional maintenance approaches exhibit limitations in adaptive decision-making,leading to increased operational costs and reliability risks.This study develops a physicsinformed reinforcement learning framework that integrates established domain knowledge with adaptive deci-sion algorithms.The approach embeds physical principles-including Weibull wind dynamics and multi-stage degradation models-into a reinforcement learning architecture,while introducing bidirectional temperature-degradation coupling for enhanced failure prediction.A high-fidelity simulation environment enables policy training through Proximal Policy Optimization,capturing complex interactions between environmental vari-ability and equipment deterioration.The framework was validated through case study implementation using northern China wind farm operational data.Results demonstrate zero-failure operation over simulated 19-year lifecycles,with economic performance improvements of 109.3%and 54.5%compared to conventional periodic and threshold-based maintenance strategies.By integrating physical constraints with intelligent algorithms,the method achieves adaptive maintenance decisions based on multi-dimensional state information.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘This study proposes a novel visual maintenance method for photovoltaic(PV)modules based on a two-stage Wiener degradation model,addressing the limitations of traditional PV maintenance strategies that often result in insufficient or excessive maintenance.The approach begins by constructing a two-stage Wiener process performance degradation model and a remaining life prediction model under perfect maintenance conditions using historical degradation data of PV modules.This enables accurate determination of the optimal timing for postfailure corrective maintenance.To optimize the maintenance strategy,the study establishes a comprehensive cost model aimed at minimizing the long-term average cost rate.The model considers multiple cost factors,including inspection costs,preventive maintenance costs,restorative maintenance costs,and penalty costs associated with delayed fault detection.Through this optimization framework,the method determines both the optimal maintenance threshold and the ideal timing for predictive maintenance actions.Comparative analysis demonstrates that the twostage Wiener model provides superior fitting performance compared to conventional linear and nonlinear degradation models.When evaluated against traditional maintenance approaches,including Wiener process-based corrective maintenance strategies and static periodic maintenance strategies,the proposed method demonstrates significant advantages in reducing overall operational costs while extending the effective service life of PV components.The method achieves these improvements through effective coordination between reliability optimization and economic benefit maximization,leading to enhanced power generation performance.These results indicate that the proposed approach offers a more balanced and efficient solution for PV system maintenance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62063016)。
文摘With increasing reforms related to integrated energy systems(IESs),each energy subsystem,as a participant based on bounded rationality,significantly influences the optimal scheduling of the entire IES through mutual learning and imitation.A reasonable multiagent joint operation strategy can help this system meet its low-carbon objectives.This paper proposes a bilayer low-carbon optimal operational strategy for an IES based on the Stackelberg master-slave game and multiagent joint operation.The studied IES includes cogeneration,power-to-gas,and carbon capture systems.Based on the Stackelberg master-slave game theory,sellers are used as leaders in the upper layer to set the prices of electricity and heat,while energy producers,energy storage providers,and load aggregators are used as followers in the lower layer to adjust the operational strategy of the system.An IES bilayer optimization model based on the Stackelberg master-slave game was developed.Finally,the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)condition and linear relaxation technology are used to convert the bilayer game model to a single layer.CPLEX,which is a mathematical program solver,is used to solve the equilibrium problem and the carbon emission trading cost of the system when the benefits of each subject reach maximum and to analyze the impact of different carbon emission trading prices and growth rates on the operational strategy of the system.As an experimental demonstration,we simulated an IES coupled with an IEEE 39-node electrical grid system,a six-node heat network system,and a six-node gas network system.The simulation results confirm the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.
基金This researchwas supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51767017 and 51867015)the Basic Research and Innovation Group Project of Gansu(No.18JR3RA133)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu(No.21JR7RA258).
文摘At present,the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power generation systems mainly comprise regular maintenance,breakdown maintenance,and condition-based maintenance,which is very likely to lead to over-or under-repair of equipment.Therefore,a preventive maintenance and replacement strategy for PV power generation systems based on reliability as a constraint is proposed.First,a hybrid failure function with a decreasing service age factor and an increasing failure rate factor is introduced to describe the deterioration of PV power generation equipment,and the equipment is replaced when its reliability drops to the replacement threshold in the last cycle.Then,based on the reliability as a constraint,the average maintenance cost and availability of the equipment are considered,and the non-periodic incomplete maintenance model of the PV power generation system is established to obtain the optimal number of repairs,each maintenance cycle and the replacement cycle of the PV power generation system components.Next,the inverter of a PV power plant is used as a research object.The model in this paper is compared and analyzed with the equal cycle maintenance model without considering reliability and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold,Through model comparison,when the optimal maintenance strategy is(0.80,4),the average maintenance cost of this paper’s model are decreased by 20.3%and 5.54%and the availability is increased by 0.2395% and 0.0337%,respectively,compared with the equal-cycle maintenance model without considering the reliability constraint and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold.Therefore,this maintenance model can ensure the high reliability of PV plant operation while increasing the equipment availability to improve the system economy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62063016).
文摘In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No 51767017)Gansu Province Basic Research Innovation Group Project(Grant No 18JR3RA133)+3 种基金Gansu Province Higher Education Industry Support and Guidance Project(Grant No 2022CYZC-22)Gansu Province Department of Ed-ucation Graduate Student’Innovation Star’Project(Grant No 2025CXZX-497)the Gansu Province Outstanding Doctoral Student Project(Grant No 25JRRA115)the Gansu Province Joint Research Foundation Major Program(Grant No 25JRRA1143).
文摘Wind turbine maintenance optimization faces challenges in balancing economic efficiency with operational reliability under environmental uncertainty.Traditional maintenance approaches exhibit limitations in adaptive decision-making,leading to increased operational costs and reliability risks.This study develops a physicsinformed reinforcement learning framework that integrates established domain knowledge with adaptive deci-sion algorithms.The approach embeds physical principles-including Weibull wind dynamics and multi-stage degradation models-into a reinforcement learning architecture,while introducing bidirectional temperature-degradation coupling for enhanced failure prediction.A high-fidelity simulation environment enables policy training through Proximal Policy Optimization,capturing complex interactions between environmental vari-ability and equipment deterioration.The framework was validated through case study implementation using northern China wind farm operational data.Results demonstrate zero-failure operation over simulated 19-year lifecycles,with economic performance improvements of 109.3%and 54.5%compared to conventional periodic and threshold-based maintenance strategies.By integrating physical constraints with intelligent algorithms,the method achieves adaptive maintenance decisions based on multi-dimensional state information.
