Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards.However,the ...Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards.However,the drivers of fire activity and the influence of climate variability remain uncertain.Here,we show that the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)—a dominant tropical subseasonal variability—influences fire activity by modulating local fire-supporting weather through atmospheric teleconnections.Our results show that midlatitude fire emissions exhibit significant subseasonal variability,with MJO-related weather influencing the fire intensity and contributing to large fire events.MJO-related fire events account for about 10%–20%of total midlatitude fire events,suggesting that if MJO teleconnections strengthen in the future,fire emissions and associated economic losses could worsen.展开更多
In recent decades,the damage and economic losses caused by climate change and extreme climate events have been increasing rapidly.Although scientists all over the world have made great efforts to understand and predic...In recent decades,the damage and economic losses caused by climate change and extreme climate events have been increasing rapidly.Although scientists all over the world have made great efforts to understand and predict climatic variations,there are still several major problems for improving climate prediction.In 2020,the Center for Climate System Prediction Research(CCSP) was established with support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.CCSP aims to tackle three scientific problems related to climate prediction—namely,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction,extended-range weather forecasting,and interannual-to-decadal climate prediction—and hence provide a solid scientific basis for more reliable climate predictions and disaster prevention.In this paper,the major objectives and scientific challenges of CCSP are reported,along with related achievements of its research groups in monsoon dynamics,land-atmosphere interaction and model development,ENSO variability,intraseasonal oscillation,and climate prediction.CCSP will endeavor to tackle key scientific problems in these areas.展开更多
Summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in 2020 experienced a strong subseasonal and synoptic fluctuation in addition to contributing to an exceptionally large seasonal mean precipitation.The cause of th...Summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in 2020 experienced a strong subseasonal and synoptic fluctuation in addition to contributing to an exceptionally large seasonal mean precipitation.The cause of this higher-frequency fluctuation is examined based on observational analyses.Apart from the continuous northward movement of the climatological mei-yu rainband,the mei-yu rainbelt in the summer of 2020 experienced multiple northward and southward swings.The cause of the swings was attributed to the subseasonal variability of southerly winds to the south and northeasterly winds to the north of the YRB.In addition,synoptic-scale variability,characterized by the eastward propagation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and precipitation anomalies,was also commonplace in the summer of 2020.While the strengthening of both the subseasonal and synoptic variabilities in the summer of 2020 was attributed to the increase of the background mean moisture,the synoptic variability was greatly affected by the subseasonal rainfall variability.As a result,both the synoptic-scale and subseasonal variabilities contributed to the north-south swings of the rainbelt.The large-scale modulations by both the seasonal mean and subseasonal anomalies provide insight regarding the optimization of issuing accurate,extended-range forecasts of extreme weather events.展开更多
An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predi...An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we found the three S2S models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(SAT)associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,respectively.The success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF model.However,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this PHSE.The bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day lead.On one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern China.On the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern China.The Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHSE).展开更多
Satellite observations reveal a much stronger intraseasonal sea surface temperature （SST） variability in the southern Indian Ocean along 5-10°S in boreal winter than in boreal summer. The cause of this seasonal...Satellite observations reveal a much stronger intraseasonal sea surface temperature （SST） variability in the southern Indian Ocean along 5-10°S in boreal winter than in boreal summer. The cause of this seasonal dependence is studied using a 2 1/2-layer ocean model forced by ERA-40 reanalysis products during 1987-2001. The simulated winter-summer asymmetry of the SST variability is consistent with the observed. A mixed-layer heat budget is analyzed. Mean surface westerlies along the ITCZ （5-10°S） in December-January-February （DJF） leads to an increased （decreased） evaporation in the westerly （easterly） phase of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO）, during which convection is also enhanced （suppressed）. Thus the anomalous shortwave radiation, latent heat flux and entrainment effects are all in phase and produce strong SST signals. During June-July-August （JJA）, mean easterlies prevail south of the equator. Anomalies of the shortwave radiation tend to be out of phase to those of the latent heat flux and ocean entrainment. This mutual cancellation leads to a weak SST response in boreal summer. The resultant SST tendency is further diminished by a deeper mixed layer in JJA compared to that in DJF. The strong intraseasonal SST response in boreal winter may exert a delayed feedback to the subsequent opposite phase of ISO, implying a two-way air-sea interaction scenario on the intraseasonal timescale.展开更多
The effects of air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)on the eastward propagating boreal winter intraseasonal oscillation(MJO)are investigated by comparing a fully coupled and a partially decoupled Indian...The effects of air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)on the eastward propagating boreal winter intraseasonal oscillation(MJO)are investigated by comparing a fully coupled and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean experiment using the SINTEX-F coupled model.Air-sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of the eastward propagations of the MJO along the5°-10°S zonal areas.The zonal asymmetry of the SST anomaly(SSTA)is responsible for the enhanced eastward propagation.A positive SSTA appears to the east of the MJO convection,which results in the boundary layer moisture convergence and positively feeds back to the MJO convection.In addition,the air-sea interaction effect on the eastward propagation of the MJO is related to the interannual variations of the TIO.Air-sea coupling enhances(reduces)the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole mode and positive Indian Ocean basin mode.Such phase dependence is attributed to the role of the background mean westerly in affecting the wind-evaporation-SST feedback.Air-sea coupling(decoupling)enhances(reduces)the zonal asymmetry of the low-level specific humidity,and thus the eastward propagation spectrum of the MJO.展开更多
The aim of this study was to understand the cause of Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)bias in the High Resolution AtmosphericModel(HiRAM)driven by observed SST through process-oriented diagnosis.Wavenumber-frequency pow...The aim of this study was to understand the cause of Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)bias in the High Resolution AtmosphericModel(HiRAM)driven by observed SST through process-oriented diagnosis.Wavenumber-frequency power spectrum and composite analyses indicate that HiRAM underestimates the spectral amplitude over theMJO band and mainly produces non-propagating rather than eastward-propagating intraseasonal rainfall anomalies,as observed.Column-integrated moist static energy(MSE)budget analysis is conducted to understand the MJO propagation bias in the simulation.It is found that the bias is due to the lack of a zonally asymmetric distribution of the MSE tendency anomaly in respect to the MJO convective center,which is mainly attributable to the bias in vertical MSE advection and surface turbulent flux.Further analysis suggests that it is the unrealistic simulation of MJO vertical circulation anomalies in the upper troposphere as well as overestimation of the Rossby wave response that results in the bias.展开更多
The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers.Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach,the radial p...The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers.Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach,the radial propagation of a baroclinic disturbance is shown to be slower than a barotropic disturbance,resulting in a slower linear axisymmetrization for baroclinic disturbances.The slower-propagating baroclinic waves also cause more baroclinic asymmetric kinetic energy to be transferred directly to the barotropic symmetric vortex than from barotropic disturbances,resulting in a faster axisymmetrization process in the nonlinear baroclinic wave case than in the nonlinear barotropic wave case.展开更多
The effect of baroclinicity on vortex axisymmetrization is examined within a two-layer dynamical model.Three basic state vortices are constructed with varying degrees of baroclinicity：（i） barotropic,（ii） weak bar...The effect of baroclinicity on vortex axisymmetrization is examined within a two-layer dynamical model.Three basic state vortices are constructed with varying degrees of baroclinicity：（i） barotropic,（ii） weak baroclinic,and （iii） strong baroclinic.The linear and nonlinear evolution of wavenumber-2 baroclinic disturbances are examined in each of the three basic state vortices.The results show that the radial propagating speed of the vortex Rossby wave at the lower level is larger with the stronger baroclinicity,resulting in a faster linear axisymmetrization process in the stronger baroclinic vortex.It is found that the nonlinear axisymmetrization process takes the longest time in the strongest baroclinic vortex among the three different basic vortices due to the weaker kinetic energy transfer from asymmetric to symmetric circulations at the lower level.A major finding in this study is that the same initial asymmetric perturbation can have different effects on symmetric vortices depending on the initial vortex baroclinicity.In numerical weather prediction models,this implies that there exists a sensitivity of the subsequent structural and intensity change solely due to the specification of the initial vertical shear of the tropical cyclone vortex.展开更多
In the original publication of this article,the blue lines(PCC skill of 500-hPa geopotential height over mid-high latit-udes between the observation and ECWMF)in Fig.8a was misplaced.The correct Fig.8 is shown below.T...In the original publication of this article,the blue lines(PCC skill of 500-hPa geopotential height over mid-high latit-udes between the observation and ECWMF)in Fig.8a was misplaced.The correct Fig.8 is shown below.The associated description of“other than in P2−P3”should be“other than in P2”in section 3.3.Neither the abstract nor the conclusions are impacted.展开更多
Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China Meteorological Data Network.The e...Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China Meteorological Data Network.The extreme cooling area and intensity indices associated with the ECEs exhibit a dominant 10–40-day periodicity,indicating a close link with atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs).The ECEs are categorized into W-and N-type.In the former,the low-frequency cooling associated with the ISO first penetrates into the western boundary of the northeastern China domain and later occupies the entire domain at its peak phase.The upper-tropospheric circulation associated with this type is characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented Rossby wave train,expanding from the Ural Mountains to the western Pacific Ocean.In the latter,the cooling invades the northern boundary first and then penetrates into the entire domain.The upper tropospheric precursory signal associated with this type is a zonally oriented negative geopotential height anomaly,which slowly moves southward.A downward-propagating signal is observed in the stratospheric potential vorticity field prior to the peak cooling,implying a possible stratospheric impact.In addition to the W-and N-types,ECEs can also occur in a localized region near either at the northern or southern boundary of the domain.展开更多
利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强...利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强的ISO活动。利用位相合成方法,对长江流域两个典型的季节内循环周期的ISO降水、850 h Pa水平风场以及水汽和垂直速度等循环过程的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析。在低频环流场上,对流层低层的低频气旋和反气旋环流表现出交替在热带西北太平洋增强并向西偏北方向移动发展的特征,当异常气旋环流移动到长江流域上空时,长江流域正好位于气旋环流西南侧的东北风异常和西北太平洋上向西移动的反气旋环流西北侧的西南风异常环流汇合处的下方,引起该地区强降水的发生。在强降水阶段的ISO的垂直结构上,上升运动和水汽表现出从华南到长江流域自南向北移动的特征,强烈的垂直上升运动以及来自南方充足的水汽为增强长江流域地区的降水起到了重要作用。展开更多
Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 （equivalent to 40 km）. Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulat...Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 （equivalent to 40 km）. Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.展开更多
Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)2020.An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the co...Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)2020.An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific(WNPAC)and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia.A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).Different from conventional central Pacific(CP)El Niños that decay slowly,a CP El Niño in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Niña by early summer.This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC.Meanwhile,an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Niño was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component.Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC.The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes,driven by combined heating anomalies over India,the tropical eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic.展开更多
To investigate the impacts of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones （TCs）,a set of idealized simulations were conducted by specifying different radiation （i.e.,nighttime-only,daytime-only,full diurnal cycle）.It w...To investigate the impacts of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones （TCs）,a set of idealized simulations were conducted by specifying different radiation （i.e.,nighttime-only,daytime-only,full diurnal cycle）.It was found that,for an initially weak storm,it developed faster during nighttime than daytime.The impacts of radiation were not only on TC intensification,but also on TC structure and size.The nighttime storm tended to have a larger size than its daytime counterparts.During nighttime,the radiative cooling steepened the lapse rate and thus reduced the static stability in cloudy regions,enhancing convection.Diabatic heating associated with outer convection induced boundary layer inflows,which led to outward expansion of tangential winds and thus increased the storm size.展开更多
To investigate the impacts of solar radiation on tropical cyclone （TC） warm-core structure （i.e., the magnitude and height）, a pair of idealized simulations are conducted by specifying different strengths of solar...To investigate the impacts of solar radiation on tropical cyclone （TC） warm-core structure （i.e., the magnitude and height）, a pair of idealized simulations are conducted by specifying different strengths of solar shortwave radiation. It is found that the TC warm core is highly sensitive to the shortwave radiative effect. For the nighttime storm, a tendency for a more intense warm core is found, with an elevated height compared to its daytime counterpart. As pointed out by previous studies, the radiative cooling during nighttime destabilizes the local and large-scale environment and thus promotes deep moist convec- tion, which enhances the TC＇s intensity. Due to the different inertial stabilities, the diabatic heating in the eyewall will force different secondary circulations. For a strong TC with a deeper vertical structure, this promotes a thin upper-level inflow layer. This inflow carries the lower stratospheric air with high potential temperature and descends adiabatically in the eye, resulting in significant upper-level warming. The Sawyer-Eliassen diagnosis further confirms that the height of the maximum temperature anomaly is likely attributable to the balance among the forced secondary circulations.展开更多
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42088101)by a National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korean government(MSIT)(Grant Nos.RS-2024-00416848 and NRF-2022R1A2C1013296)。
文摘Understanding the relationship between fire activity and climate variability is a major concern for the scientific community and is essential for reducing economic losses and life-threatening fire hazards.However,the drivers of fire activity and the influence of climate variability remain uncertain.Here,we show that the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)—a dominant tropical subseasonal variability—influences fire activity by modulating local fire-supporting weather through atmospheric teleconnections.Our results show that midlatitude fire emissions exhibit significant subseasonal variability,with MJO-related weather influencing the fire intensity and contributing to large fire events.MJO-related fire events account for about 10%–20%of total midlatitude fire events,suggesting that if MJO teleconnections strengthen in the future,fire emissions and associated economic losses could worsen.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42088101]。
文摘In recent decades,the damage and economic losses caused by climate change and extreme climate events have been increasing rapidly.Although scientists all over the world have made great efforts to understand and predict climatic variations,there are still several major problems for improving climate prediction.In 2020,the Center for Climate System Prediction Research(CCSP) was established with support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.CCSP aims to tackle three scientific problems related to climate prediction—namely,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction,extended-range weather forecasting,and interannual-to-decadal climate prediction—and hence provide a solid scientific basis for more reliable climate predictions and disaster prevention.In this paper,the major objectives and scientific challenges of CCSP are reported,along with related achievements of its research groups in monsoon dynamics,land-atmosphere interaction and model development,ENSO variability,intraseasonal oscillation,and climate prediction.CCSP will endeavor to tackle key scientific problems in these areas.
基金This work was jointly supported by China National Key R&D Program 2018YFA0605604,NSFC grants(Grant No.42088101,41875069),NSF AGS-2006553NOAA NA18OAR4310298.This is SOEST contribution number 11413,IPRC contribution number 1541,and ESMC number 357.
文摘Summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in 2020 experienced a strong subseasonal and synoptic fluctuation in addition to contributing to an exceptionally large seasonal mean precipitation.The cause of this higher-frequency fluctuation is examined based on observational analyses.Apart from the continuous northward movement of the climatological mei-yu rainband,the mei-yu rainbelt in the summer of 2020 experienced multiple northward and southward swings.The cause of the swings was attributed to the subseasonal variability of southerly winds to the south and northeasterly winds to the north of the YRB.In addition,synoptic-scale variability,characterized by the eastward propagation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and precipitation anomalies,was also commonplace in the summer of 2020.While the strengthening of both the subseasonal and synoptic variabilities in the summer of 2020 was attributed to the increase of the background mean moisture,the synoptic variability was greatly affected by the subseasonal rainfall variability.As a result,both the synoptic-scale and subseasonal variabilities contributed to the north-south swings of the rainbelt.The large-scale modulations by both the seasonal mean and subseasonal anomalies provide insight regarding the optimization of issuing accurate,extended-range forecasts of extreme weather events.
基金The authors greatly appreciate the professional and earnest review made by the anonymous reviewers which for sure improved the quality of our manuscript.This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1505905&2018YFC1505803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101,41805048 and 41875069)Tim LI was supported by NSF AGS-1643297 and NOAA Grant NA18OAR4310298.
文摘An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we found the three S2S models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(SAT)associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,respectively.The success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF model.However,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this PHSE.The bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day lead.On one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern China.On the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern China.The Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHSE).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 40628006 and 40675054Tim Li was also supported by ONR grants N000140710145, N00173061G031 and N000140810256the International Pacific Research Center that is sponsored by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), NASA (NNX07AG53G) and NOAA (NA17RJ1230)
文摘Satellite observations reveal a much stronger intraseasonal sea surface temperature （SST） variability in the southern Indian Ocean along 5-10°S in boreal winter than in boreal summer. The cause of this seasonal dependence is studied using a 2 1/2-layer ocean model forced by ERA-40 reanalysis products during 1987-2001. The simulated winter-summer asymmetry of the SST variability is consistent with the observed. A mixed-layer heat budget is analyzed. Mean surface westerlies along the ITCZ （5-10°S） in December-January-February （DJF） leads to an increased （decreased） evaporation in the westerly （easterly） phase of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO）, during which convection is also enhanced （suppressed）. Thus the anomalous shortwave radiation, latent heat flux and entrainment effects are all in phase and produce strong SST signals. During June-July-August （JJA）, mean easterlies prevail south of the equator. Anomalies of the shortwave radiation tend to be out of phase to those of the latent heat flux and ocean entrainment. This mutual cancellation leads to a weak SST response in boreal summer. The resultant SST tendency is further diminished by a deeper mixed layer in JJA compared to that in DJF. The strong intraseasonal SST response in boreal winter may exert a delayed feedback to the subsequent opposite phase of ISO, implying a two-way air-sea interaction scenario on the intraseasonal timescale.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2014CB953901]National Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2015CB453200]+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41675096,41575043,41375095,and 41505067]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41475084 and 41630423]
文摘The effects of air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)on the eastward propagating boreal winter intraseasonal oscillation(MJO)are investigated by comparing a fully coupled and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean experiment using the SINTEX-F coupled model.Air-sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of the eastward propagations of the MJO along the5°-10°S zonal areas.The zonal asymmetry of the SST anomaly(SSTA)is responsible for the enhanced eastward propagation.A positive SSTA appears to the east of the MJO convection,which results in the boundary layer moisture convergence and positively feeds back to the MJO convection.In addition,the air-sea interaction effect on the eastward propagation of the MJO is related to the interannual variations of the TIO.Air-sea coupling enhances(reduces)the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole mode and positive Indian Ocean basin mode.Such phase dependence is attributed to the role of the background mean westerly in affecting the wind-evaporation-SST feedback.Air-sea coupling(decoupling)enhances(reduces)the zonal asymmetry of the low-level specific humidity,and thus the eastward propagation spectrum of the MJO.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster[Grant No.2019YFC1510004]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.41975108 and 42105022]+2 种基金NOAA[Grant No.NA18OAR4310298]the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu[Grant No.BK20190781]the National Natural Science Foundation of China–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers[Grant No.U1606405].
文摘The aim of this study was to understand the cause of Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)bias in the High Resolution AtmosphericModel(HiRAM)driven by observed SST through process-oriented diagnosis.Wavenumber-frequency power spectrum and composite analyses indicate that HiRAM underestimates the spectral amplitude over theMJO band and mainly produces non-propagating rather than eastward-propagating intraseasonal rainfall anomalies,as observed.Column-integrated moist static energy(MSE)budget analysis is conducted to understand the MJO propagation bias in the simulation.It is found that the bias is due to the lack of a zonally asymmetric distribution of the MSE tendency anomaly in respect to the MJO convective center,which is mainly attributable to the bias in vertical MSE advection and surface turbulent flux.Further analysis suggests that it is the unrealistic simulation of MJO vertical circulation anomalies in the upper troposphere as well as overestimation of the Rossby wave response that results in the bias.
基金sponsored by ONR Grants PE 0602435N and N000140310739partially supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
文摘The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers.Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach,the radial propagation of a baroclinic disturbance is shown to be slower than a barotropic disturbance,resulting in a slower linear axisymmetrization for baroclinic disturbances.The slower-propagating baroclinic waves also cause more baroclinic asymmetric kinetic energy to be transferred directly to the barotropic symmetric vortex than from barotropic disturbances,resulting in a faster axisymmetrization process in the nonlinear baroclinic wave case than in the nonlinear barotropic wave case.
基金supported by ONR Grants N000140310739 and PE 0602435Npartially sponsored by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
文摘The effect of baroclinicity on vortex axisymmetrization is examined within a two-layer dynamical model.Three basic state vortices are constructed with varying degrees of baroclinicity：（i） barotropic,（ii） weak baroclinic,and （iii） strong baroclinic.The linear and nonlinear evolution of wavenumber-2 baroclinic disturbances are examined in each of the three basic state vortices.The results show that the radial propagating speed of the vortex Rossby wave at the lower level is larger with the stronger baroclinicity,resulting in a faster linear axisymmetrization process in the stronger baroclinic vortex.It is found that the nonlinear axisymmetrization process takes the longest time in the strongest baroclinic vortex among the three different basic vortices due to the weaker kinetic energy transfer from asymmetric to symmetric circulations at the lower level.A major finding in this study is that the same initial asymmetric perturbation can have different effects on symmetric vortices depending on the initial vortex baroclinicity.In numerical weather prediction models,this implies that there exists a sensitivity of the subsequent structural and intensity change solely due to the specification of the initial vertical shear of the tropical cyclone vortex.
文摘In the original publication of this article,the blue lines(PCC skill of 500-hPa geopotential height over mid-high latit-udes between the observation and ECWMF)in Fig.8a was misplaced.The correct Fig.8 is shown below.The associated description of“other than in P2−P3”should be“other than in P2”in section 3.3.Neither the abstract nor the conclusions are impacted.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42075032).
文摘Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China Meteorological Data Network.The extreme cooling area and intensity indices associated with the ECEs exhibit a dominant 10–40-day periodicity,indicating a close link with atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs).The ECEs are categorized into W-and N-type.In the former,the low-frequency cooling associated with the ISO first penetrates into the western boundary of the northeastern China domain and later occupies the entire domain at its peak phase.The upper-tropospheric circulation associated with this type is characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented Rossby wave train,expanding from the Ural Mountains to the western Pacific Ocean.In the latter,the cooling invades the northern boundary first and then penetrates into the entire domain.The upper tropospheric precursory signal associated with this type is a zonally oriented negative geopotential height anomaly,which slowly moves southward.A downward-propagating signal is observed in the stratospheric potential vorticity field prior to the peak cooling,implying a possible stratospheric impact.In addition to the W-and N-types,ECEs can also occur in a localized region near either at the northern or southern boundary of the domain.
文摘利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强的ISO活动。利用位相合成方法,对长江流域两个典型的季节内循环周期的ISO降水、850 h Pa水平风场以及水汽和垂直速度等循环过程的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析。在低频环流场上,对流层低层的低频气旋和反气旋环流表现出交替在热带西北太平洋增强并向西偏北方向移动发展的特征,当异常气旋环流移动到长江流域上空时,长江流域正好位于气旋环流西南侧的东北风异常和西北太平洋上向西移动的反气旋环流西北侧的西南风异常环流汇合处的下方,引起该地区强降水的发生。在强降水阶段的ISO的垂直结构上,上升运动和水汽表现出从华南到长江流域自南向北移动的特征,强烈的垂直上升运动以及来自南方充足的水汽为增强长江流域地区的降水起到了重要作用。
基金supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program(Grant No. 2007BAC29B03)China-UK-Swiss Adaptingto Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Sciencethe National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40890054)
文摘Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 （equivalent to 40 km）. Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.
基金This work was jointly supported by China National Key R&D Program 2018YFA0605604,NSFC Grant No.42088101,NOAA NA18OAR4310298,and NSF AGS-2006553This is SOEST contribution number 11354,IPRC contribution number 1524,and ESMC number 350.
文摘Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)2020.An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific(WNPAC)and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia.A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).Different from conventional central Pacific(CP)El Niños that decay slowly,a CP El Niño in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Niña by early summer.This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC.Meanwhile,an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Niño was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component.Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC.The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes,driven by combined heating anomalies over India,the tropical eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275095, 41075037)the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB955204)the Key University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province (Grant No.14KJA170005)
文摘To investigate the impacts of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones （TCs）,a set of idealized simulations were conducted by specifying different radiation （i.e.,nighttime-only,daytime-only,full diurnal cycle）.It was found that,for an initially weak storm,it developed faster during nighttime than daytime.The impacts of radiation were not only on TC intensification,but also on TC structure and size.The nighttime storm tended to have a larger size than its daytime counterparts.During nighttime,the radiative cooling steepened the lapse rate and thus reduced the static stability in cloudy regions,enhancing convection.Diabatic heating associated with outer convection induced boundary layer inflows,which led to outward expansion of tangential winds and thus increased the storm size.
基金sponsored by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB452803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41275095)+2 种基金the "Six peaks of high-level talent" funding project of Jiangsuthe Key University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. 14KJA170005)the China Meteorological Administration Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique (Grant No. AMF201403)
文摘To investigate the impacts of solar radiation on tropical cyclone （TC） warm-core structure （i.e., the magnitude and height）, a pair of idealized simulations are conducted by specifying different strengths of solar shortwave radiation. It is found that the TC warm core is highly sensitive to the shortwave radiative effect. For the nighttime storm, a tendency for a more intense warm core is found, with an elevated height compared to its daytime counterpart. As pointed out by previous studies, the radiative cooling during nighttime destabilizes the local and large-scale environment and thus promotes deep moist convec- tion, which enhances the TC＇s intensity. Due to the different inertial stabilities, the diabatic heating in the eyewall will force different secondary circulations. For a strong TC with a deeper vertical structure, this promotes a thin upper-level inflow layer. This inflow carries the lower stratospheric air with high potential temperature and descends adiabatically in the eye, resulting in significant upper-level warming. The Sawyer-Eliassen diagnosis further confirms that the height of the maximum temperature anomaly is likely attributable to the balance among the forced secondary circulations.
