Since late 2019,the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policymaking.Here,we provided an introduc...Since late 2019,the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policymaking.Here,we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission,summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types:compartment extension,parameter extension and population-stratified extension models,highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic:estimating epidemiological parameters,predicting the future trend,evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios.Finally,we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82041024 to F.C.,81973142 to Y.W.)the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Investment ID:INV-006371).
文摘Since late 2019,the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policymaking.Here,we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission,summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types:compartment extension,parameter extension and population-stratified extension models,highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic:estimating epidemiological parameters,predicting the future trend,evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios.Finally,we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.
