同化大量观测资料可以有效地改进模式预报结果,但不同观测对预报的影响有着显著差异,合理评估观测对预报的贡献是数值模式中最具挑战性的诊断之一。本文采用基于伴随的预报对观测的敏感性(Forecast Sensitivity to Observation,简称FSO...同化大量观测资料可以有效地改进模式预报结果,但不同观测对预报的影响有着显著差异,合理评估观测对预报的贡献是数值模式中最具挑战性的诊断之一。本文采用基于伴随的预报对观测的敏感性(Forecast Sensitivity to Observation,简称FSO)方法,构建WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecasting model’sData Assimilation)框架下的WRFDA-FSO系统。基于2019年9月超大城市项目在北京地区获取的风廓线雷达(Wind Profile Radar,简称WPR)和地基微波辐射计(Microwave Radiometer,简称MWR)观测数据,利用WRFDA-FSO系统,开展观测对WRF模式12 h预报的影响试验,并分析风温湿观测对预报的贡献。结果表明:(1)同化的观测资料(MWR、WPR、Sound、Synop和Geoamv)均减小了WRF模式12 h预报误差,对预报为正贡献,其中MWR观测对预报的影响最大,WPR风场观测对预报的改进效果优于Sound的风场观测。(2)WPR的U、V观测和MWR的T、Q观测中,V观测和T观测对预报的正贡献值更高,对预报的改进效果更优。(3)WPR和MWR多数高度层的观测均减小了预报误差,对预报为正贡献,其中MWR的T观测对预报的正贡献主要位于近地面800 h Pa以下。展开更多
Although radar observations capture storm structures with high spatiotemporal resolutions, they are limited within the storm region after the precipitation formed. Geostationary satellites data cover the gaps in the r...Although radar observations capture storm structures with high spatiotemporal resolutions, they are limited within the storm region after the precipitation formed. Geostationary satellites data cover the gaps in the radar network prior to the formation of the precipitation for the storms and their environment. The study explores the effects of assimilating the water vapor channel radiances from Himawari-8 data with Weather Research and Forecasting model data assimilation system(WRFDA) for a severe storm case over north China. A fast cloud detection scheme for Advanced Himawari imager(AHI)radiance is enhanced in the framework of the WRFDA system initially in this study. The bias corrections, the cloud detection for the clear-sky AHI radiance, and the observation error modeling for cloudy radiance are conducted before the data assimilation. All AHI radiance observations are fully applied without any quality control for all-sky AHI radiance data assimilation. Results show that the simulated all-sky AHI radiance fits the observations better by using the cloud dependent observation error model, further improving the cloud heights. The all-sky AHI radiance assimilation adjusts all types of hydrometeor variables, especially cloud water and precipitation snow. It is proven that assimilating all-sky AHI data improves hydrometeor specifications when verified against the radar reflectivity. Consequently, the assimilation of AHI observations under the all-sky condition has an overall improved impact on both the precipitation locations and intensity compared to the experiment with only conventional and AHI clear-sky radiance data.展开更多
The high observation efficiency,scanning speed and observation frequency of the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)satellite indicates the progress of Chinese geostationary meteorological satellites.The characteristics of FY-4A atmosph...The high observation efficiency,scanning speed and observation frequency of the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)satellite indicates the progress of Chinese geostationary meteorological satellites.The characteristics of FY-4A atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs)derived from the high-level water vapor(WV-High)channel,mid-level water vapor(WV-Mid)channel,and infrared(IR)channel of FY-4A are analyzed,and their corresponding observation errors estimated.Then,the impacts of single-channel and multi-channel FY-4A AMVs on RMAPS-ST(the Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Short Term)are evaluated based on one-month data assimilation cycling and forecasting experiments.Results show that the observation errors of FY-4A AMVs from the three channels have an explicit vertical structure.Results from the cycling experiments indicate that the assimilation of AMVs from WV-High produces more apparent improvement of the wind in the upper layer,while a more positive effect in the lower layer is achieved by the assimilation of AMVs from IR.Furthermore,the assimilation of AMVs from IR is more skillful for medium and moderate precipitation than from other channels owing to the good quality of data in the lower layer in the AMVs from IR.Assimilation of FY-4A AMVs from the three channels could combine the advantages of assimilation from each individual channel to improve the wind in the upper,middle and lower layers simultaneously.展开更多
In order to evaluate the impact of assimilating FY-3C satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS2)data on rainfall forecasts in the new-generation Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System–Short Term(RM...In order to evaluate the impact of assimilating FY-3C satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS2)data on rainfall forecasts in the new-generation Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System–Short Term(RMAPS-ST)operational system,which is developed by the Institute of Urban Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration,four experiments were carried out in this study:(i)Coldstart(no observations assimilated);(ii)CON(assimilation of conventional observations);(iii)FY3(assimilation of FY-3C MWHS2 only);and(iv)FY3+CON(simultaneous assimilation of FY-3C MWHS2 and conventional observations).A precipitation process that took place in central-eastern China during 4–6 June 2019 was selected as a case study.When the authors assimilated the FY-3C MWHS2 data in the RMAPS-ST operational system,data quality control and bias correction were performed so that the O-B(observation minus background)values of the five humidity channels of MWHS2 became closer to a normal distribution,and the data basically satisfied the unbiased assumption.The results showed that,in this case,the predictions of both precipitation location and intensity were improved in the FY3+CON experiment compared with the other three experiments.Meanwhile,the prediction of atmospheric parameters for the mesoscale field was also improved,and the RMSE of the specific humidity forecast at the 850–400 hPa height was reduced.This study implies that FY-3C MWHS2 data can be successfully assimilated in a regional numerical model and has the potential to improve the forecasting of rainfall.展开更多
To improve the weather forecasting over the Beijing area for the 2008 Olympic Games,a triple-nested(27/9/3km) WRFVar/WRF system with 3-h update cycle was established.Experiments have been done for a convective event t...To improve the weather forecasting over the Beijing area for the 2008 Olympic Games,a triple-nested(27/9/3km) WRFVar/WRF system with 3-h update cycle was established.Experiments have been done for a convective event that occurred on August 1,2006.The results showed that the high-resolution rapid update cycle gave a good precipitation forecast;the tunings of background error statistics(BES) and observation-error statistics in WRFVar improved the skill of the precipitation forecast;the BES for the fine domain(3 km) obtained by interpolation from its parent domain(9 km) can be used in 3 km WRFVar as a reasonable approximation.The user can now save a great deal of work related to the derivation of the fine mesh BES from the forecast over a period of time;the rapid update cycle with 3-h frequency has satisfied the forecast,and the update cycle with 1-h frequency was not necessary.展开更多
To investigate the impact of radial velocity assimilation in the clear-air region on forecasting,this paper conducted cycle assimilation experiments for short-duration convection and heavy rainfall forecasting using t...To investigate the impact of radial velocity assimilation in the clear-air region on forecasting,this paper conducted cycle assimilation experiments for short-duration convection and heavy rainfall forecasting using the latest classified raw radar data from the Meteorological Observation Centre of China Meteorological Administration.These experiments involve the assimilation of radial velocity in the clear-air region,alongside the assimilation of radar reflectivity factor and radial velocity in the precipitation region.The results show that as the cycle assimilation progresses,radial velocity in the clear-air region gradually influences the interior of the convective system,adjusting the thermal and dynamic conditions within the convection.This adjustment improves the coordination between various physical quantities,thereby improving the forecast skill of short-duration convection.Furthermore,the radial velocity in the clear-air region gradually affects the physical quantities in the precipitation region through the cycle of assimilation,thereby improving precipitation forecast skills.The study discloses that reasonable assimilation of radial velocity in the clear-air region can play an important role in pre-convection and precipitation forecasts.展开更多
In August 2018, the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM) in Beijing co-organized with Sinovation Ventures a Weather Forecasting Contest(WFC)—one of the AI(artificial intelligence) Challenger Global Contests. The WFC a...In August 2018, the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM) in Beijing co-organized with Sinovation Ventures a Weather Forecasting Contest(WFC)—one of the AI(artificial intelligence) Challenger Global Contests. The WFC aims to take advantage of the AI techniques to improve the quality of weather forecast. Across the world, more than1000 teams enrolled in the WFC and about 250 teams completed real-time weather forecasts, among which top 5 teams were awarded in the final contest. The contest results show that the AI-based ensemble models exhibited improved skill for forecasts of surface air temperature and relative humidity at 2-m and wind speed at 10-m height.Compared to the IUM operational analog ensemble weather model forecast, the most notable improvements of 24.2%and 17.0% in forecast accuracy for surface 2-m air temperature are achieved by two teams using the AI techniques of time series model, gradient boosting tree, depth probability prediction, and so on. Meanwhile, it is found that reasonable data processing techniques and model composite structure are also important for obtaining better forecasts.展开更多
文摘同化大量观测资料可以有效地改进模式预报结果,但不同观测对预报的影响有着显著差异,合理评估观测对预报的贡献是数值模式中最具挑战性的诊断之一。本文采用基于伴随的预报对观测的敏感性(Forecast Sensitivity to Observation,简称FSO)方法,构建WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecasting model’sData Assimilation)框架下的WRFDA-FSO系统。基于2019年9月超大城市项目在北京地区获取的风廓线雷达(Wind Profile Radar,简称WPR)和地基微波辐射计(Microwave Radiometer,简称MWR)观测数据,利用WRFDA-FSO系统,开展观测对WRF模式12 h预报的影响试验,并分析风温湿观测对预报的贡献。结果表明:(1)同化的观测资料(MWR、WPR、Sound、Synop和Geoamv)均减小了WRF模式12 h预报误差,对预报为正贡献,其中MWR观测对预报的影响最大,WPR风场观测对预报的改进效果优于Sound的风场观测。(2)WPR的U、V观测和MWR的T、Q观测中,V观测和T观测对预报的正贡献值更高,对预报的改进效果更优。(3)WPR和MWR多数高度层的观测均减小了预报误差,对预报为正贡献,其中MWR的T观测对预报的正贡献主要位于近地面800 h Pa以下。
基金supported by the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation of China (G41805016, G41805070)the Chinese National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1506404, 2018YFC1506603)+1 种基金the research project of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province in China (SZKT201901, SZKT20 1904)the research project of the Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang in China (2020SYIAE02, 2020SYIAE07)。
文摘Although radar observations capture storm structures with high spatiotemporal resolutions, they are limited within the storm region after the precipitation formed. Geostationary satellites data cover the gaps in the radar network prior to the formation of the precipitation for the storms and their environment. The study explores the effects of assimilating the water vapor channel radiances from Himawari-8 data with Weather Research and Forecasting model data assimilation system(WRFDA) for a severe storm case over north China. A fast cloud detection scheme for Advanced Himawari imager(AHI)radiance is enhanced in the framework of the WRFDA system initially in this study. The bias corrections, the cloud detection for the clear-sky AHI radiance, and the observation error modeling for cloudy radiance are conducted before the data assimilation. All AHI radiance observations are fully applied without any quality control for all-sky AHI radiance data assimilation. Results show that the simulated all-sky AHI radiance fits the observations better by using the cloud dependent observation error model, further improving the cloud heights. The all-sky AHI radiance assimilation adjusts all types of hydrometeor variables, especially cloud water and precipitation snow. It is proven that assimilating all-sky AHI data improves hydrometeor specifications when verified against the radar reflectivity. Consequently, the assimilation of AHI observations under the all-sky condition has an overall improved impact on both the precipitation locations and intensity compared to the experiment with only conventional and AHI clear-sky radiance data.
基金the National Key Research and Development Plan(Grant No.2018YFC1507105).
文摘The high observation efficiency,scanning speed and observation frequency of the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)satellite indicates the progress of Chinese geostationary meteorological satellites.The characteristics of FY-4A atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs)derived from the high-level water vapor(WV-High)channel,mid-level water vapor(WV-Mid)channel,and infrared(IR)channel of FY-4A are analyzed,and their corresponding observation errors estimated.Then,the impacts of single-channel and multi-channel FY-4A AMVs on RMAPS-ST(the Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Short Term)are evaluated based on one-month data assimilation cycling and forecasting experiments.Results show that the observation errors of FY-4A AMVs from the three channels have an explicit vertical structure.Results from the cycling experiments indicate that the assimilation of AMVs from WV-High produces more apparent improvement of the wind in the upper layer,while a more positive effect in the lower layer is achieved by the assimilation of AMVs from IR.Furthermore,the assimilation of AMVs from IR is more skillful for medium and moderate precipitation than from other channels owing to the good quality of data in the lower layer in the AMVs from IR.Assimilation of FY-4A AMVs from the three channels could combine the advantages of assimilation from each individual channel to improve the wind in the upper,middle and lower layers simultaneously.
基金Supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(grant no.2019QZKK0105)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506603).
文摘In order to evaluate the impact of assimilating FY-3C satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS2)data on rainfall forecasts in the new-generation Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System–Short Term(RMAPS-ST)operational system,which is developed by the Institute of Urban Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration,four experiments were carried out in this study:(i)Coldstart(no observations assimilated);(ii)CON(assimilation of conventional observations);(iii)FY3(assimilation of FY-3C MWHS2 only);and(iv)FY3+CON(simultaneous assimilation of FY-3C MWHS2 and conventional observations).A precipitation process that took place in central-eastern China during 4–6 June 2019 was selected as a case study.When the authors assimilated the FY-3C MWHS2 data in the RMAPS-ST operational system,data quality control and bias correction were performed so that the O-B(observation minus background)values of the five humidity channels of MWHS2 became closer to a normal distribution,and the data basically satisfied the unbiased assumption.The results showed that,in this case,the predictions of both precipitation location and intensity were improved in the FY3+CON experiment compared with the other three experiments.Meanwhile,the prediction of atmospheric parameters for the mesoscale field was also improved,and the RMSE of the specific humidity forecast at the 850–400 hPa height was reduced.This study implies that FY-3C MWHS2 data can be successfully assimilated in a regional numerical model and has the potential to improve the forecasting of rainfall.
文摘To improve the weather forecasting over the Beijing area for the 2008 Olympic Games,a triple-nested(27/9/3km) WRFVar/WRF system with 3-h update cycle was established.Experiments have been done for a convective event that occurred on August 1,2006.The results showed that the high-resolution rapid update cycle gave a good precipitation forecast;the tunings of background error statistics(BES) and observation-error statistics in WRFVar improved the skill of the precipitation forecast;the BES for the fine domain(3 km) obtained by interpolation from its parent domain(9 km) can be used in 3 km WRFVar as a reasonable approximation.The user can now save a great deal of work related to the derivation of the fine mesh BES from the forecast over a period of time;the rapid update cycle with 3-h frequency has satisfied the forecast,and the update cycle with 1-h frequency was not necessary.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2442218 and U2442601)Project of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(KLME202306 and KLME202303)。
文摘To investigate the impact of radial velocity assimilation in the clear-air region on forecasting,this paper conducted cycle assimilation experiments for short-duration convection and heavy rainfall forecasting using the latest classified raw radar data from the Meteorological Observation Centre of China Meteorological Administration.These experiments involve the assimilation of radial velocity in the clear-air region,alongside the assimilation of radar reflectivity factor and radial velocity in the precipitation region.The results show that as the cycle assimilation progresses,radial velocity in the clear-air region gradually influences the interior of the convective system,adjusting the thermal and dynamic conditions within the convection.This adjustment improves the coordination between various physical quantities,thereby improving the forecast skill of short-duration convection.Furthermore,the radial velocity in the clear-air region gradually affects the physical quantities in the precipitation region through the cycle of assimilation,thereby improving precipitation forecast skills.The study discloses that reasonable assimilation of radial velocity in the clear-air region can play an important role in pre-convection and precipitation forecasts.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506801)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505117)Special Funds for Basic Research and Operation in Government Level Research Institutes of Public Welfare Nature(IUMKY201904)
文摘In August 2018, the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM) in Beijing co-organized with Sinovation Ventures a Weather Forecasting Contest(WFC)—one of the AI(artificial intelligence) Challenger Global Contests. The WFC aims to take advantage of the AI techniques to improve the quality of weather forecast. Across the world, more than1000 teams enrolled in the WFC and about 250 teams completed real-time weather forecasts, among which top 5 teams were awarded in the final contest. The contest results show that the AI-based ensemble models exhibited improved skill for forecasts of surface air temperature and relative humidity at 2-m and wind speed at 10-m height.Compared to the IUM operational analog ensemble weather model forecast, the most notable improvements of 24.2%and 17.0% in forecast accuracy for surface 2-m air temperature are achieved by two teams using the AI techniques of time series model, gradient boosting tree, depth probability prediction, and so on. Meanwhile, it is found that reasonable data processing techniques and model composite structure are also important for obtaining better forecasts.
