Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM...Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.展开更多
The Yangtze River Basin(YRB)experienced record-breaking heatwaves(HWs)during the summers of 2013 and 2022.A comparative analysis of their variations and physical causes was undertaken using ERA5 reanalysis data to det...The Yangtze River Basin(YRB)experienced record-breaking heatwaves(HWs)during the summers of 2013 and 2022.A comparative analysis of their variations and physical causes was undertaken using ERA5 reanalysis data to determine the similarities and differences between their characteristics and mechanisms.The results show that the duration of the 2013 and 2022 HWs rank as the second and first longest,respectively,since the 1950s.Both HWs were associated with anomalous high pressure and descending motions over the middle and lower reaches of the YRB in conjunction with a westward shift of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high in summer.These high-pressure anomalies over the YRB led to decreases in total precipitation,soil moisture,and cloud cover and increases in surface solar radiation and air temperature,favoring the 2 HWs.However,high-pressure anomalies associated with the 2013 HWs peaked in July,while those associated with the 2022 HWs peaked in August.The 2022 HWs were of longer duration and higher intensity than those in 2013,which was primarily due to the stronger anticyclonic circulation anomalies induced by more intense Rossby wave trains in the mid to high latitudes in 2022.Notably,the zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific,which was larger in 2022 than in 2013,played a crucial role in triggering the high-pressure anomalies and extreme HWs over the YRB through forcing distinct patterns of northeastward propagating wave trains over East Asia in the 2 years.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U21A6001,42261144687,42175173)the Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.SML2023SP208)the GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515240036).
文摘Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.
基金supported by the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230603 and 42275020)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2024A1515011352)financed by the Open Research Funds of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province(SZKT202404)the South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(SCSF202310).
文摘The Yangtze River Basin(YRB)experienced record-breaking heatwaves(HWs)during the summers of 2013 and 2022.A comparative analysis of their variations and physical causes was undertaken using ERA5 reanalysis data to determine the similarities and differences between their characteristics and mechanisms.The results show that the duration of the 2013 and 2022 HWs rank as the second and first longest,respectively,since the 1950s.Both HWs were associated with anomalous high pressure and descending motions over the middle and lower reaches of the YRB in conjunction with a westward shift of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high in summer.These high-pressure anomalies over the YRB led to decreases in total precipitation,soil moisture,and cloud cover and increases in surface solar radiation and air temperature,favoring the 2 HWs.However,high-pressure anomalies associated with the 2013 HWs peaked in July,while those associated with the 2022 HWs peaked in August.The 2022 HWs were of longer duration and higher intensity than those in 2013,which was primarily due to the stronger anticyclonic circulation anomalies induced by more intense Rossby wave trains in the mid to high latitudes in 2022.Notably,the zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific,which was larger in 2022 than in 2013,played a crucial role in triggering the high-pressure anomalies and extreme HWs over the YRB through forcing distinct patterns of northeastward propagating wave trains over East Asia in the 2 years.
