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不确定性中的确定性--中国经济风险识别 被引量:2
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作者 隋建利 吕文强 刘金全 《经济科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第1期35-61,共27页
为了揭示不确定性冲击下中国经济风险的确定性规律,本文基于预期经济增速分布,将不确定性与经济增长纳入“在险增长”的统一框架,以刻画经济不确定性与金融不确定性对经济风险的异质性影响。研究发现:不确定性冲击下的经济风险具有明显... 为了揭示不确定性冲击下中国经济风险的确定性规律,本文基于预期经济增速分布,将不确定性与经济增长纳入“在险增长”的统一框架,以刻画经济不确定性与金融不确定性对经济风险的异质性影响。研究发现:不确定性冲击下的经济风险具有明显的确定性特征,伴随着不确定性升高,经济下行风险显著增加,经济上行风险较为稳定;当不确定性较低时,经济增速的潜在波动空间相对狭小,当不确定性较高时,经济增速具有较大的波动空间;不确定性与经济增长之间存在“双向反馈”的溢出循环机制,能够加剧不确定性的实际冲击效应;经济不确定性与金融不确定性对经济风险具有明显的异质性影响,无论是就冲击强度还是持续周期而言,经济不确定性的影响均更为显著。 展开更多
关键词 不确定性 经济风险 在险增长 预期经济增速分布
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Si-and alkali-rich melt inclusions in minerals of mantle peridotites from eastern China:Implication for lithospheric evolution
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作者 FAN Qicheng sui jiani +3 位作者 XU Ping LI Ni SUN Qian WANG Tuanhua 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2006年第1期43-49,共7页
Minerals of spinel-and garnet-facies mantle xenoliths entrained in Cenozoicbasalts from eastern China(North China,Northeastern China and Southeastern China coastal area)contains lots of melt inclusions.Studies on thes... Minerals of spinel-and garnet-facies mantle xenoliths entrained in Cenozoicbasalts from eastern China(North China,Northeastern China and Southeastern China coastal area)contains lots of melt inclusions.Studies on these melt inclusions show that the glass inclusionsare rich in SiO_(2)(60%—68%)and alkalis(K_2O+Na_2O=5%—11%,especially for K_2O)as well asvolatiles such as H_2O and CO_(2)(2%—7%),which belong to dacites and andesites of the high-K calcicalkali series rocks with few shoshonites.High Al and Ca diopside in melt inclusion is the productof melt crystallization at high temperature and pressure,rather than the product ofdevitrification.Results show that these K-rich(in general K_2O】3%)intermediate-acidic silicatemelt inclusions have characteristics of continent without a genetical link to host basalts and theirphenocrystic minerals.Thus,these trapped melt inclusions represent melts of Mesozoic lithosphericmantle-crust interaction and imply that the continental lithospheric mantle beneath eastern Chinahad undergone fragmentation and recreation processes during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic periods.Thisresult undoubtly provides important implication for the evolution of sub-continental lithospherebeneath eastern China.We propose that these Si-and alkalis-rich melts should be responsible forthe mantle chemical heterogeneity underneath eastern China. 展开更多
关键词 Si-and alkali-rich melt inclusion mantle peridotite lithosphericevolution eastern China
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