The future change of September Arctic sea-ice volume,simulated by 30 state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）,is examined,which depends on both ice extent and ice...The future change of September Arctic sea-ice volume,simulated by 30 state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）,is examined,which depends on both ice extent and ice thickness.In comparison with the September sea-ice extent,the September sea-ice volume has larger spread in the historical simulation but faster convergence in the projection simulation,especially in the context of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.This indicates that the ice volume might be more sensitive to external forcings than the ice extent.Using the averaged projection of those climate models from the 30 CMIP5 models that can better reflect the ‘observed＇ sea-ice volume climatology and variability,it is shown that the September sea ice volume will decrease to ~3000 km3 in the early 2060 s,and then level off under a medium-mitigation scenario.However,it will drop to ~3000 km3 in the early 2040 s and reach a near-zero ice volume in the mid-2070 s under a high-emission scenario.With respect to the historical condition,the reduction of the ice volume,associated with increasing greenhouse gas emissions,is more rapid than that of the ice extent during the twenty-first century.展开更多
Associations between the autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations (SICs) and North American winter precipitation were examined using singular value decomposition. The results show that a reduced SIC in the majority of the...Associations between the autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations (SICs) and North American winter precipitation were examined using singular value decomposition. The results show that a reduced SIC in the majority of the Arctic is accompanied by dry conditions over the Great Plains, the southern United States, Mexico, eastern Alaska, and southeastern Greenland, and by wet conditions over the majority of Canada, the northeastern United States, and the majority of Greenland. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the SIC variability show a wave train structure that is persistent from autumn to winter and is responsible for the covariability between the autumn Arctic SICs and North American winter precipitation. This relationship suggests a potential long-term outlook for the North American winter precipitation.展开更多
Satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes have been recently improved and extended.However,the accuracy of recent satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes in the Arctic is not well characterized.Here,the authors as...Satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes have been recently improved and extended.However,the accuracy of recent satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes in the Arctic is not well characterized.Here,the authors assess the accuracy of the net surface radiative flux （NETSRF） in the Arctic,focusing on the ice-covered ocean,for three satellite products against four in situ measurements collected from different areas in the Arctic.The three satellite products are the Surface Radiation Budget project （SRB）,the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）,and the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder version-2 （APP-x）.Our comparisons suggest that：（1） in terms of the overall bias,root-mean-square error,and correlation,the NETSRF of ISCCP is closer to in situ observations than that of SRB and APP-x;（2） in terms of the diurnal variation of the biases,it is not very clear which satellite product is superior to the others;and （3） in terms of the interannual variability of the bias,the NETSRF of ISCCP is more accurate than that of SRB and APP-x.This comparison may provide useful guidance to the community as to which data-set may provide the smallest bias in NETSRF展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41305097 and 41176169]the National Basic Research Program of China[973 program,grant number 2011CB309704]
文摘The future change of September Arctic sea-ice volume,simulated by 30 state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）,is examined,which depends on both ice extent and ice thickness.In comparison with the September sea-ice extent,the September sea-ice volume has larger spread in the historical simulation but faster convergence in the projection simulation,especially in the context of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.This indicates that the ice volume might be more sensitive to external forcings than the ice extent.Using the averaged projection of those climate models from the 30 CMIP5 models that can better reflect the ‘observed＇ sea-ice volume climatology and variability,it is shown that the September sea ice volume will decrease to ~3000 km3 in the early 2060 s,and then level off under a medium-mitigation scenario.However,it will drop to ~3000 km3 in the early 2040 s and reach a near-zero ice volume in the mid-2070 s under a high-emission scenario.With respect to the historical condition,the reduction of the ice volume,associated with increasing greenhouse gas emissions,is more rapid than that of the ice extent during the twenty-first century.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB30970)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41176169 and 40930848)
文摘Associations between the autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations (SICs) and North American winter precipitation were examined using singular value decomposition. The results show that a reduced SIC in the majority of the Arctic is accompanied by dry conditions over the Great Plains, the southern United States, Mexico, eastern Alaska, and southeastern Greenland, and by wet conditions over the majority of Canada, the northeastern United States, and the majority of Greenland. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the SIC variability show a wave train structure that is persistent from autumn to winter and is responsible for the covariability between the autumn Arctic SICs and North American winter precipitation. This relationship suggests a potential long-term outlook for the North American winter precipitation.
基金supported by the National Major Research High Performance Computing Program of China[grant number 2016YFB0200800]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41676185]the NOAA Climate Program Office[grant number NA14OAR4310216]
文摘Satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes have been recently improved and extended.However,the accuracy of recent satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes in the Arctic is not well characterized.Here,the authors assess the accuracy of the net surface radiative flux （NETSRF） in the Arctic,focusing on the ice-covered ocean,for three satellite products against four in situ measurements collected from different areas in the Arctic.The three satellite products are the Surface Radiation Budget project （SRB）,the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）,and the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder version-2 （APP-x）.Our comparisons suggest that：（1） in terms of the overall bias,root-mean-square error,and correlation,the NETSRF of ISCCP is closer to in situ observations than that of SRB and APP-x;（2） in terms of the diurnal variation of the biases,it is not very clear which satellite product is superior to the others;and （3） in terms of the interannual variability of the bias,the NETSRF of ISCCP is more accurate than that of SRB and APP-x.This comparison may provide useful guidance to the community as to which data-set may provide the smallest bias in NETSRF
