An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works.This modeling framework can character...An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works.This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns,including plateaus,epidemic resurgences,and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes.In this tutorial paper,we introduce and illustrate SubEpiPredict,a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time series data using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework.The toolbox can be used for model fitting,forecasting,and evaluation of model performance of the calibration and forecasting periods using metrics such as the weighted interval score(WIS).We also provide a detailed description of these methods including the concept of the n-sub-epidemic model,constructing ensemble forecasts from the top-ranking models,etc.For the illustration of the toolbox,we utilize publicly available daily COVID-19 death data at the national level for the United States.The MATLAB toolbox introduced in this paper can be very useful for a wider group of audiences,including policymakers,and can be easily utilized by those without extensive coding and modeling backgrounds.展开更多
Electronic nicotine delivery systems(ENDSs),com-monly termed e-cigarettes,have been advertised as a safer alternative to traditional tobacco cigarettes and promoted for smoking cessation.However,emerging evidence sugg...Electronic nicotine delivery systems(ENDSs),com-monly termed e-cigarettes,have been advertised as a safer alternative to traditional tobacco cigarettes and promoted for smoking cessation.However,emerging evidence suggests a connection between e-cigarette use or vaping and an increased risk of oral disease,particularly among minoritized populations such as Black and African Americans(AAs).AA communities have historically experienced disproportionate harm from tobacco use,which could extend to vaping.In this study,we recruited 20 AAs and 28 individuals of other races,oversampled for vapers,with no statistical differences in age,sex,sugar intake,income,or education across groups.Whole saliva samples collected at the time of the visit were processed for untargeted UHPLC-ESI-MS/MS proteomics and HPLC-MS/MS metabolomics.Our results revealed vaping preferentially impaired redox pathways and amino acid metabolism among AAs,with elevated malondialdehyde levels and an oxidized glutathione to glutathione ratio and lowered levels of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase and ascorbate.Salivary proteomics demonstrated salivary secretion was upregulated in AAs while Fc gamma R-mediated phagocytosis,bacterial invasion defense,natural killer cell function,leukocyte migration,and phagosome function were downregulated,suggesting dysregulated innate immune function in AA vapers.Additionally,focal adhesion,cell−substrate junction,and actin cytoskeleton regulation were downregulated in AA vapers,indicating that mucous epithelium barrier integrity may be disrupted.Lastly,the Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Need(CPITN),a dental assessment tool developed by the World Health Organization(WHO)to evaluate periodontal health and determine the need for treatment,revealed that a significantly higher proportion of AA vapers had CPITN scores of 3 or higher,suggesting the need for further clinical assessment of periodontal disease.Collectively,our results suggest that AAs may be more susceptible to oral health effects of vaping than individuals of other racial groups,with elevated levels of oxidative stress,dysregulated innate immune function,mucous epithelium barrier integrity disruption,and varying nicotine metabolism.展开更多
基金G.C.is partially supported from NSF grants 2125246 and 2026797 and R01 GM 130900.
文摘An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works.This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns,including plateaus,epidemic resurgences,and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes.In this tutorial paper,we introduce and illustrate SubEpiPredict,a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time series data using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework.The toolbox can be used for model fitting,forecasting,and evaluation of model performance of the calibration and forecasting periods using metrics such as the weighted interval score(WIS).We also provide a detailed description of these methods including the concept of the n-sub-epidemic model,constructing ensemble forecasts from the top-ranking models,etc.For the illustration of the toolbox,we utilize publicly available daily COVID-19 death data at the national level for the United States.The MATLAB toolbox introduced in this paper can be very useful for a wider group of audiences,including policymakers,and can be easily utilized by those without extensive coding and modeling backgrounds.
基金carried out with the coordination of the National Institute of Health in the framework of the project entitled“African American Susceptibility to Periodontal Disease due to Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems(ENDS)Usage”(Award number:1R56DE029950-01A1).
文摘Electronic nicotine delivery systems(ENDSs),com-monly termed e-cigarettes,have been advertised as a safer alternative to traditional tobacco cigarettes and promoted for smoking cessation.However,emerging evidence suggests a connection between e-cigarette use or vaping and an increased risk of oral disease,particularly among minoritized populations such as Black and African Americans(AAs).AA communities have historically experienced disproportionate harm from tobacco use,which could extend to vaping.In this study,we recruited 20 AAs and 28 individuals of other races,oversampled for vapers,with no statistical differences in age,sex,sugar intake,income,or education across groups.Whole saliva samples collected at the time of the visit were processed for untargeted UHPLC-ESI-MS/MS proteomics and HPLC-MS/MS metabolomics.Our results revealed vaping preferentially impaired redox pathways and amino acid metabolism among AAs,with elevated malondialdehyde levels and an oxidized glutathione to glutathione ratio and lowered levels of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase and ascorbate.Salivary proteomics demonstrated salivary secretion was upregulated in AAs while Fc gamma R-mediated phagocytosis,bacterial invasion defense,natural killer cell function,leukocyte migration,and phagosome function were downregulated,suggesting dysregulated innate immune function in AA vapers.Additionally,focal adhesion,cell−substrate junction,and actin cytoskeleton regulation were downregulated in AA vapers,indicating that mucous epithelium barrier integrity may be disrupted.Lastly,the Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Need(CPITN),a dental assessment tool developed by the World Health Organization(WHO)to evaluate periodontal health and determine the need for treatment,revealed that a significantly higher proportion of AA vapers had CPITN scores of 3 or higher,suggesting the need for further clinical assessment of periodontal disease.Collectively,our results suggest that AAs may be more susceptible to oral health effects of vaping than individuals of other racial groups,with elevated levels of oxidative stress,dysregulated innate immune function,mucous epithelium barrier integrity disruption,and varying nicotine metabolism.
