In the face of the unrelenting challenge posed by earthquakes-a natural hazard of unpredictable nature with a legacy of significant loss of life,destruction of infrastructure,and profound economic and social impacts-t...In the face of the unrelenting challenge posed by earthquakes-a natural hazard of unpredictable nature with a legacy of significant loss of life,destruction of infrastructure,and profound economic and social impacts-the scientific community has pursued advancements in earthquake early warning systems(EEWSs).These systems are vital for pre-emptive actions and decision-making that can save lives and safeguard critical infrastructure.This study proposes and validates a domain-informed deep learning-based EEWS called the hybrid earthquake early warning framework for estimating response spectra(HEWFERS),which represents a significant leap forward in the capabilities to predict ground shaking intensity in real-time,aligning with the United Nations’disaster risk reduction goals.HEWFERS ingeniously integrates a domain-informed variational autoencoder for physics-based latent variable(LV)extraction,a feed-forward neural network for on-site prediction,and Gaussian process regression for spatial prediction.Adopting explainable artificial intelligence-based Shapley explanations further elucidates the predictive mechanisms,ensuring stakeholder-informed decisions.By conducting an extensive analysis of the proposed framework under a large database of approximately 14000 recorded ground motions,this study offers insights into the potential of integrating machine learning with seismology to revolutionize earthquake preparedness and response,thus paving the way for a safer and more resilient future.展开更多
基金the financial support from the Chilean National Research and Development Agency(Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo,ANID)through Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico(FONDECYT)Regular 1240503Fondo de Valorización de la Investigación(FOVI)230030 projectsthe financial support from the ANID through FONDECYT Reg-ular 1240501.
文摘In the face of the unrelenting challenge posed by earthquakes-a natural hazard of unpredictable nature with a legacy of significant loss of life,destruction of infrastructure,and profound economic and social impacts-the scientific community has pursued advancements in earthquake early warning systems(EEWSs).These systems are vital for pre-emptive actions and decision-making that can save lives and safeguard critical infrastructure.This study proposes and validates a domain-informed deep learning-based EEWS called the hybrid earthquake early warning framework for estimating response spectra(HEWFERS),which represents a significant leap forward in the capabilities to predict ground shaking intensity in real-time,aligning with the United Nations’disaster risk reduction goals.HEWFERS ingeniously integrates a domain-informed variational autoencoder for physics-based latent variable(LV)extraction,a feed-forward neural network for on-site prediction,and Gaussian process regression for spatial prediction.Adopting explainable artificial intelligence-based Shapley explanations further elucidates the predictive mechanisms,ensuring stakeholder-informed decisions.By conducting an extensive analysis of the proposed framework under a large database of approximately 14000 recorded ground motions,this study offers insights into the potential of integrating machine learning with seismology to revolutionize earthquake preparedness and response,thus paving the way for a safer and more resilient future.
