Observed species richness (OSR)is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric.However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant.Two metrics that include observed and potential species were...Observed species richness (OSR)is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric.However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant.Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined:potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness--PSR)and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF).We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015),using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km^2 grid.PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area.For each park and for the whole network,we calculated the mean and sum of OSR,PSR,and GMF in each time period,as well as changes between periods.OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus,although the network covers a very small proportion of the country,it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas.However,mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network,whereas the opposite was the case outside the network.Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002,although the reduction was moderate to low.This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network.展开更多
Background Leprosy remains a persistent public health challenge,where human-to-human transmission of Mycobacterium leprae via respiratory droplets is well established.In the tropical Americas,growing evidence implicat...Background Leprosy remains a persistent public health challenge,where human-to-human transmission of Mycobacterium leprae via respiratory droplets is well established.In the tropical Americas,growing evidence implicates armadillos as important zoonotic reservoirs,particularly through direct contact during hunting and handling.However,such transmission has so far been considered rare and highly localised.This study provides a comprehensive spatial analysis of the role of armadillo hunting in human leprosy transmission,quantifying its contribution to disease prevalence and identifying geographic hotspots where interventions could be most effective.Methods Using Brazil’s 326,001 reported leprosy cases from 2013 to 2022,we applied a pathogeographical approach to explore transmission dynamics.We compiled data on 554 hunted armadillos across 175 municipalities and M.leprae prevalence in 376 armadillo individuals from 97 municipalities(mean prevalence=38.5%).These were used to build spatial models assessing hunting-related infection risk and integrated as a variable into a generalised linear model alongside socioeconomic,climatic,and environmental predictors to evaluate their effects on human leprosy prevalence.Results Key predictors of armadillo hunting included higher population density(P<0.001)and firearm availability(P<0.01).Infection in armadillos was negatively correlated with native habitat coverage(coefficient:−2.28;P<0.001),suggesting that environmental degradation can amplify infection risk.The armadillo-hunting infection risk variable—generated by combining armadillo hunting and infection favourability models—emerged as the second strongest predictor of human leprosy prevalence(coefficient:1.69;P<0.001),accounting for~25%of cases nationally and around 40%in deforestation hotspots.Additional positive predictors included greater precipitation seasonality(coefficient:0.82;P<0.001)and malnutrition(coefficient:0.01;P<0.001),while higher population density(coefficient:−0.64;P<0.001),natural habitat coverage(coefficient:−0.50;P<0.001)and socioeconomic status(coefficient:−0.47;P=0.013)were linked to reduced disease prevalence.Conclusions Armadillo hunting seems to play a more significant role in human leprosy transmission than previously recognised.To address this overlooked pathway,targeted interventions should focus on reducing unsafe and illegal hunting,improving communication around zoonotic risks,strengthening disease surveillance in high-risk areas,and conducting genetic studies to confirm wildlife-to-human transmission.Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating wildlife-associated transmission pathways into strategies to reduce disease prevalence and mitigate future outbreaks in tropical regions facing rapid environmental change and persistent poverty.展开更多
文摘Observed species richness (OSR)is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric.However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant.Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined:potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness--PSR)and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF).We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015),using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km^2 grid.PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area.For each park and for the whole network,we calculated the mean and sum of OSR,PSR,and GMF in each time period,as well as changes between periods.OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus,although the network covers a very small proportion of the country,it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas.However,mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network,whereas the opposite was the case outside the network.Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002,although the reduction was moderate to low.This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network.
基金supported by the Biogeography,Diversity and Conservation Lab of the University of Malaga,Project PID2021-124063OB-I00 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and European Regional Development Fund(ERDF)and by the Leprosy Research Initiative Foundation(Grant#FP25\19)supported by a postdoctoral contract of the Plan Propio de Investigacion,Transferencia y Divulgacion Cientifica of the University of Malaga+7 种基金supported by MOPGA:Visiting Fellowship Program for early career researchers,Campus France,Francesupported by Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation through grant GBMF9258 to the Comunidad de Manejo de Fauna Silvestre en la Amazonia y en Latinoamerica(COMFAUNA)supported UK Research and Innovation’s Global Challenges Research Fund(UKRI GCRF)Trade,Development and the Environment Hub project(ES/S008160/1)supported by the joint NSF-NIH-NIFA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease program(DEB#1911457)benefited from an‘Investissement d’Avenir’Grant managed by Agence Nationale de la Recherche,France(LABEX CEBA:ANR-10-LABX-25-01)supported by Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior—Brasil(CAPES)for a PNPD research fellowship.(88887.717863/2022-00)supported by a Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico(CNPq)postdoctoral fellowship(150261/2023-3)supported by the Sustainable Landscapes and Livelihoods Programme.
文摘Background Leprosy remains a persistent public health challenge,where human-to-human transmission of Mycobacterium leprae via respiratory droplets is well established.In the tropical Americas,growing evidence implicates armadillos as important zoonotic reservoirs,particularly through direct contact during hunting and handling.However,such transmission has so far been considered rare and highly localised.This study provides a comprehensive spatial analysis of the role of armadillo hunting in human leprosy transmission,quantifying its contribution to disease prevalence and identifying geographic hotspots where interventions could be most effective.Methods Using Brazil’s 326,001 reported leprosy cases from 2013 to 2022,we applied a pathogeographical approach to explore transmission dynamics.We compiled data on 554 hunted armadillos across 175 municipalities and M.leprae prevalence in 376 armadillo individuals from 97 municipalities(mean prevalence=38.5%).These were used to build spatial models assessing hunting-related infection risk and integrated as a variable into a generalised linear model alongside socioeconomic,climatic,and environmental predictors to evaluate their effects on human leprosy prevalence.Results Key predictors of armadillo hunting included higher population density(P<0.001)and firearm availability(P<0.01).Infection in armadillos was negatively correlated with native habitat coverage(coefficient:−2.28;P<0.001),suggesting that environmental degradation can amplify infection risk.The armadillo-hunting infection risk variable—generated by combining armadillo hunting and infection favourability models—emerged as the second strongest predictor of human leprosy prevalence(coefficient:1.69;P<0.001),accounting for~25%of cases nationally and around 40%in deforestation hotspots.Additional positive predictors included greater precipitation seasonality(coefficient:0.82;P<0.001)and malnutrition(coefficient:0.01;P<0.001),while higher population density(coefficient:−0.64;P<0.001),natural habitat coverage(coefficient:−0.50;P<0.001)and socioeconomic status(coefficient:−0.47;P=0.013)were linked to reduced disease prevalence.Conclusions Armadillo hunting seems to play a more significant role in human leprosy transmission than previously recognised.To address this overlooked pathway,targeted interventions should focus on reducing unsafe and illegal hunting,improving communication around zoonotic risks,strengthening disease surveillance in high-risk areas,and conducting genetic studies to confirm wildlife-to-human transmission.Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating wildlife-associated transmission pathways into strategies to reduce disease prevalence and mitigate future outbreaks in tropical regions facing rapid environmental change and persistent poverty.
