Extreme weather events have been identified as the top global risk for the upcoming decade,according to the Global Risk Report 2025.Between July and September 2024,four tropical cyclones with extreme characteristics m...Extreme weather events have been identified as the top global risk for the upcoming decade,according to the Global Risk Report 2025.Between July and September 2024,four tropical cyclones with extreme characteristics made landfall in China,highlighting the potential impacts of climate change on tropical cyclone activity.Super Typhoon Gaemi made landfall in Taiwan and Fujian provinces,setting record-breaking daily rainfall at 14 meteorological stations in Jiangxi,Hunan,and Liaoning provinces.As the strongest typhoon to make landfall in China during autumn,Yagi maintained super typhoon intensity when making landfall in Hainan,Guangdong provinces in China,and Quang Ninh Province in Vietnam.Typhoon Bebinca and Tropical Storm Pulasan made consecutive landfalls in Shanghai within four days,with Bebinca being the strongest typhoon to strike Shanghai and Jiangsu Province since 1949.The World Weather Attribution report indicates that,due to climate change,rainfall events like those from Super Typhoon Gaemi have become more frequent,now occurring every 20 years in the northern Philippines,every 5 years in Taiwan Province,and every 100 years in Hunan Province.In Taiwan and Hunan provinces,climate change has increased rainfall by 14%and 9%,respectively.It is suggested that exploring how climate change influences the extreme events of landfalling typhoons is an important area for future research.展开更多
Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged hazards.In this work,we studied Doksuri'...Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged hazards.In this work,we studied Doksuri's main characteristics and assessed its forecast accuracy meticulously based on official forecasts,global models and regional models with lead times varying from 1 to 5 days.The results indicate that Typhoon Doksuri underwent rapid intensification and made landfall at 09:55 BJT on July 28 with a powerful intensity of 50 m s−1 confirmed by the real-time operational warnings issued by China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The typhoon also caused significant wind and rainfall impacts,with precipitation at several stations reaching historical extremes,ranking eighth in terms of total rainfall impact during the event.The evaluation of forecast accuracy for Doksuri suggests that Shanghai Multi-model Ensemble Method(SSTC)and Fengwu Model are the most effective for short-term track forecasts.Meanwhile,the forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and United Kingdom Meteorological Office(UKMO)are optimal for long-term predictions.It is worth noting that objective forecasts systematically underestimate the typhoon maximum intensity.The objective forecast is terribly poor when there is a sudden change in intensity.CMA-National Digital Forecast System(CMA-NDFS)provides a better reference value for typhoon accumulated rainfall forecasts,and regional models perform well in forecasting extreme rainfall.The analyses above assist forecasters in pinpointing challenges within typhoon predictions and gaining a comprehensive insight into the performance of each model.This improves the effective application of model products.展开更多
Severe typhoon Fitow(1323)brought persistent and heavy rainfall to Zhejiang and the Shanghai area after it made landfall at Fujian Province of China in October 2013,breaking the rainfall records of several counties an...Severe typhoon Fitow(1323)brought persistent and heavy rainfall to Zhejiang and the Shanghai area after it made landfall at Fujian Province of China in October 2013,breaking the rainfall records of several counties and districts in Zhejiang.In this paper,we provide an overview of the characteristics of Fitow’s landfall,including its track,intensity,structural evolution,heavy rainfall,and wind.We also describe some of the associated disastrous impacts.Finally,we provide verifications of operational forecasts of its track,intensity and rainfall.Though the track and intensity is well predicted,the rainfall persistence and enhancement in the second stage in Shanghai and north Zhejiang areas are not predicted out at all.The analysis presented in this paper provides forecasters and researchers with some valuable information on Fitow,which could form a useful basis for further studies.展开更多
To improve the forecast of typhoon intensity and meet the requirements of operational services on marine meteorology in Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, a few of important scientific research projects from nati...To improve the forecast of typhoon intensity and meet the requirements of operational services on marine meteorology in Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, a few of important scientific research projects from national, Shanghai municipal government and CMA were undertaken by Shanghai Typhoon Institute in recent 10 years. Some field experiments for typhoon were carried out. The observational researches on physical process of air-sea interaction reveal some new facts about the turbulence energy transport in the atmospheric and ocean boundary layer under typhoon. Especially there is more understanding for multi-scale response mechanism of ocean and feedback effect of each other. The simulation and prediction of typhoon intensity in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model are improved due to better expression of drag coefficient on sea surface and the sea spray effect on momentum and heat transport. Furthermore, the operational wave models were established for global and northwest Pacific respectively. In particular, the sea wave and storm surge numerical prediction systems with very high resolution including complex physical processes, such as interaction of wave and current, developed over China coastal sea. Based on the numerical model outputs some useful risk indexes for ship voyage were formed and put into use in Shanghai Marine and Meteorological Center, such as wave steepness index, ratio index of swell and synchronism oscillation index et al. The numerical marine products are widely used in daily operational work and professional services recently.展开更多
After landfall,tropical cyclone(TC)remnants may maintain or even rejuvenate and incur catastrophic disasters.What leads to the revival of TC remnants over land remains elusive.In this study,the revival mechanism of Ty...After landfall,tropical cyclone(TC)remnants may maintain or even rejuvenate and incur catastrophic disasters.What leads to the revival of TC remnants over land remains elusive.In this study,the revival mechanism of Typhoon Doksuri(2023)remnants is extensively explored.Doksuri brought severe damage to the Chinese mainland after its landfall.The remnants vortex of Doksuri sustained an inland trajectory for 3 days and underwent a total maintenance of 60 h,with a revival of 18 h.Based on multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,by calculation of moist potential vorticity and analysis of slantwise vorticity development(SVD),this study unveils that while maintaining a significant warm-core structure over the course of maintenance and revival,the Doksuri remnants transported sufficient moisture in the mid–lower troposphere,which intensified the north–south temperature and humidity gradients,causing tilting of the isentropic surfaces remarkably.According to the SVD theory,the tilting gave rise to vorticity development and forced upward air motion on the northern side of the remnant vortex.Moreover,numerical sensitivity experiments based on the WRF model reveal that the topography of Taihang Mountains and the diabatic heating associated with surface and convective latent heat fluxes also played important roles in the revival of the Doksuri remnants.The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms derived by this study will help improve understanding and prediction of the disasters induced by TC remnants.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42192551)the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2022YFC3004200)+1 种基金the Innovation and Development Special Program of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CXFZ2024J006)the Special Fund Project of Basic Scientific Research Business Expenses of the Shanghai Typhoon Institute(Grant No.2024JB03).
文摘Extreme weather events have been identified as the top global risk for the upcoming decade,according to the Global Risk Report 2025.Between July and September 2024,four tropical cyclones with extreme characteristics made landfall in China,highlighting the potential impacts of climate change on tropical cyclone activity.Super Typhoon Gaemi made landfall in Taiwan and Fujian provinces,setting record-breaking daily rainfall at 14 meteorological stations in Jiangxi,Hunan,and Liaoning provinces.As the strongest typhoon to make landfall in China during autumn,Yagi maintained super typhoon intensity when making landfall in Hainan,Guangdong provinces in China,and Quang Ninh Province in Vietnam.Typhoon Bebinca and Tropical Storm Pulasan made consecutive landfalls in Shanghai within four days,with Bebinca being the strongest typhoon to strike Shanghai and Jiangsu Province since 1949.The World Weather Attribution report indicates that,due to climate change,rainfall events like those from Super Typhoon Gaemi have become more frequent,now occurring every 20 years in the northern Philippines,every 5 years in Taiwan Province,and every 100 years in Hunan Province.In Taiwan and Hunan provinces,climate change has increased rainfall by 14%and 9%,respectively.It is suggested that exploring how climate change influences the extreme events of landfalling typhoons is an important area for future research.
基金supported jointly by Innovation and Development Special Program of China Meteorological Administration (Grant Nos.CXFZ2024J006)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42075056)+4 种基金Research Program from Science and Technology Committee of Shanghai (Grant Nos.23DZ204700,22ZR1476400)Shanghai Science and Technology Commission Project (Grant Nos.23DZ1204701)Ningbo Key R&D Program (Grant Nos.2023Z139)East China Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Fund (Grant Nos.QYHZ202318)Special Fund Project of Basic Scientific Research Business Expenses of Shanghai Typhoon Institute, (Grant Nos.2024JB03).
文摘Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged hazards.In this work,we studied Doksuri's main characteristics and assessed its forecast accuracy meticulously based on official forecasts,global models and regional models with lead times varying from 1 to 5 days.The results indicate that Typhoon Doksuri underwent rapid intensification and made landfall at 09:55 BJT on July 28 with a powerful intensity of 50 m s−1 confirmed by the real-time operational warnings issued by China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The typhoon also caused significant wind and rainfall impacts,with precipitation at several stations reaching historical extremes,ranking eighth in terms of total rainfall impact during the event.The evaluation of forecast accuracy for Doksuri suggests that Shanghai Multi-model Ensemble Method(SSTC)and Fengwu Model are the most effective for short-term track forecasts.Meanwhile,the forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and United Kingdom Meteorological Office(UKMO)are optimal for long-term predictions.It is worth noting that objective forecasts systematically underestimate the typhoon maximum intensity.The objective forecast is terribly poor when there is a sudden change in intensity.CMA-National Digital Forecast System(CMA-NDFS)provides a better reference value for typhoon accumulated rainfall forecasts,and regional models perform well in forecasting extreme rainfall.The analyses above assist forecasters in pinpointing challenges within typhoon predictions and gaining a comprehensive insight into the performance of each model.This improves the effective application of model products.
基金the State 973 Program(2013CB430300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41305049,41005033,and 41275067).
文摘Severe typhoon Fitow(1323)brought persistent and heavy rainfall to Zhejiang and the Shanghai area after it made landfall at Fujian Province of China in October 2013,breaking the rainfall records of several counties and districts in Zhejiang.In this paper,we provide an overview of the characteristics of Fitow’s landfall,including its track,intensity,structural evolution,heavy rainfall,and wind.We also describe some of the associated disastrous impacts.Finally,we provide verifications of operational forecasts of its track,intensity and rainfall.Though the track and intensity is well predicted,the rainfall persistence and enhancement in the second stage in Shanghai and north Zhejiang areas are not predicted out at all.The analysis presented in this paper provides forecasters and researchers with some valuable information on Fitow,which could form a useful basis for further studies.
基金the funding support from the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41730959)the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (GASI-IPOVAI-04)
文摘To improve the forecast of typhoon intensity and meet the requirements of operational services on marine meteorology in Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, a few of important scientific research projects from national, Shanghai municipal government and CMA were undertaken by Shanghai Typhoon Institute in recent 10 years. Some field experiments for typhoon were carried out. The observational researches on physical process of air-sea interaction reveal some new facts about the turbulence energy transport in the atmospheric and ocean boundary layer under typhoon. Especially there is more understanding for multi-scale response mechanism of ocean and feedback effect of each other. The simulation and prediction of typhoon intensity in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model are improved due to better expression of drag coefficient on sea surface and the sea spray effect on momentum and heat transport. Furthermore, the operational wave models were established for global and northwest Pacific respectively. In particular, the sea wave and storm surge numerical prediction systems with very high resolution including complex physical processes, such as interaction of wave and current, developed over China coastal sea. Based on the numerical model outputs some useful risk indexes for ship voyage were formed and put into use in Shanghai Marine and Meteorological Center, such as wave steepness index, ratio index of swell and synchronism oscillation index et al. The numerical marine products are widely used in daily operational work and professional services recently.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3004200 and 2022YFC3003901).
文摘After landfall,tropical cyclone(TC)remnants may maintain or even rejuvenate and incur catastrophic disasters.What leads to the revival of TC remnants over land remains elusive.In this study,the revival mechanism of Typhoon Doksuri(2023)remnants is extensively explored.Doksuri brought severe damage to the Chinese mainland after its landfall.The remnants vortex of Doksuri sustained an inland trajectory for 3 days and underwent a total maintenance of 60 h,with a revival of 18 h.Based on multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,by calculation of moist potential vorticity and analysis of slantwise vorticity development(SVD),this study unveils that while maintaining a significant warm-core structure over the course of maintenance and revival,the Doksuri remnants transported sufficient moisture in the mid–lower troposphere,which intensified the north–south temperature and humidity gradients,causing tilting of the isentropic surfaces remarkably.According to the SVD theory,the tilting gave rise to vorticity development and forced upward air motion on the northern side of the remnant vortex.Moreover,numerical sensitivity experiments based on the WRF model reveal that the topography of Taihang Mountains and the diabatic heating associated with surface and convective latent heat fluxes also played important roles in the revival of the Doksuri remnants.The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms derived by this study will help improve understanding and prediction of the disasters induced by TC remnants.
