In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statist...In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.展开更多
为了低碳高效地资源化利用工程渣土,采用碱激发材料来固化工程渣土,研究不同碱激发剂激活矿渣/粉煤灰对所得固化土的工作性能、抗压强度、表观密度和线收缩的影响,采用XRD和SEM分析固化土的矿物相和微观形貌,最后分析不同配方固化土的...为了低碳高效地资源化利用工程渣土,采用碱激发材料来固化工程渣土,研究不同碱激发剂激活矿渣/粉煤灰对所得固化土的工作性能、抗压强度、表观密度和线收缩的影响,采用XRD和SEM分析固化土的矿物相和微观形貌,最后分析不同配方固化土的碳排放和碳强比.结果表明:利用碱激发材料固化渣土可得到强度大于10 MPa、密度约1700 kg/m^(3)、线收缩小于1%的建筑材料,固化土的反应产物主要为C-A-S-H、C-S-H和碳酸钙.矿渣的固化效果强于粉煤灰,且碳排放和碳强比更低(约2.2-4.8 kg CO_(2)e/(t·MPa)).标准养护条件下,相较于水玻璃和氢氧化钠,使用硅灰替代水玻璃,会使固化土的流动性降低4%»5%、抗压强度降低41.9%、碳排放降低41%-43%,但碳强比基本不变;使用生石灰作为激发剂,会使固化土的流动性降低18%»19%、抗压强度降低23.9%、碳排放降低64%-66%,并降低碳强比,但需要养护来保证生石灰的激发效果.展开更多
At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standar...At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standard.Thus,establishing an objective identification method is greatly important.In this study,an objective synoptic analysis technique for TRP(OSAT_TRP)is proposed to identify TRP using daily precipitation datasets,historical tropical cyclone(TC)track data,and the ERA5 reanalysis data.This method includes three steps:first,independent rain belts are separated,and those that might relate to TCs'remote effects are distinguished according to their distance from the TCs.Second,the strong water vapor transport belt from the TC is identified using integrated horizontal water vapor transport(IVT).Third,TRP is distinguished by connecting the first two steps.The TRP obtained through this method can satisfy three criteria,as follows:1)the precipitation occurs outside the circulation of TCs,2)the precipitation is affected by TCs,and 3)a gap exists between the TRP and TC rain belt.Case diagnosis analysis,compared with subjective TRP results and backward trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT,indicates that OSAT_TRP can distinguish TRP even when multiple TCs in the Northwest Pacific are involved.Then,we applied the OSAT_TRP to select typical TRPs and obtained the synoptic-scale environments of the TRP through composite analysis.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202307)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)+1 种基金the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.
文摘为了低碳高效地资源化利用工程渣土,采用碱激发材料来固化工程渣土,研究不同碱激发剂激活矿渣/粉煤灰对所得固化土的工作性能、抗压强度、表观密度和线收缩的影响,采用XRD和SEM分析固化土的矿物相和微观形貌,最后分析不同配方固化土的碳排放和碳强比.结果表明:利用碱激发材料固化渣土可得到强度大于10 MPa、密度约1700 kg/m^(3)、线收缩小于1%的建筑材料,固化土的反应产物主要为C-A-S-H、C-S-H和碳酸钙.矿渣的固化效果强于粉煤灰,且碳排放和碳强比更低(约2.2-4.8 kg CO_(2)e/(t·MPa)).标准养护条件下,相较于水玻璃和氢氧化钠,使用硅灰替代水玻璃,会使固化土的流动性降低4%»5%、抗压强度降低41.9%、碳排放降低41%-43%,但碳强比基本不变;使用生石灰作为激发剂,会使固化土的流动性降低18%»19%、抗压强度降低23.9%、碳排放降低64%-66%,并降低碳强比,但需要养护来保证生石灰的激发效果.
基金supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX22_1136)the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)+2 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202202)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standard.Thus,establishing an objective identification method is greatly important.In this study,an objective synoptic analysis technique for TRP(OSAT_TRP)is proposed to identify TRP using daily precipitation datasets,historical tropical cyclone(TC)track data,and the ERA5 reanalysis data.This method includes three steps:first,independent rain belts are separated,and those that might relate to TCs'remote effects are distinguished according to their distance from the TCs.Second,the strong water vapor transport belt from the TC is identified using integrated horizontal water vapor transport(IVT).Third,TRP is distinguished by connecting the first two steps.The TRP obtained through this method can satisfy three criteria,as follows:1)the precipitation occurs outside the circulation of TCs,2)the precipitation is affected by TCs,and 3)a gap exists between the TRP and TC rain belt.Case diagnosis analysis,compared with subjective TRP results and backward trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT,indicates that OSAT_TRP can distinguish TRP even when multiple TCs in the Northwest Pacific are involved.Then,we applied the OSAT_TRP to select typical TRPs and obtained the synoptic-scale environments of the TRP through composite analysis.
