以2022年9月影响东北地区的台风“梅花”残余系统降水为例,采用SAL(structure amplitude and location)空间检验方法对5种中国气象局数值业务模式(CMA模式)降水最强日(2022年9月16日08时至17日08时,热带低压)累计24 h降水预报进行空间...以2022年9月影响东北地区的台风“梅花”残余系统降水为例,采用SAL(structure amplitude and location)空间检验方法对5种中国气象局数值业务模式(CMA模式)降水最强日(2022年9月16日08时至17日08时,热带低压)累计24 h降水预报进行空间检验、偏差成因及预报调整分析。结果表明:此次过程中各模式在降水位置方面预报均较好,CMA-GFS在降水结构分布、强度方面预报表现最佳,除CMA-BJ外其他模式对于降水极值预测均偏小。CMA-GFS预报效果最佳的原因是其对于台风变性、850 hPa低空急流及暖式切变线位置、强度以及移速预报更准确,CMA-TYM预报较差主要是未能预报出台风变性,对切变线预报速度过快而导致暴雨落区偏大。CMA-GFS随着预报时效的临近,预报效果越来越好,优势主要体现在临近时效内,但在长时效预报中几乎无预报能力,CMA-TYM虽然在临近时段结构与强度预报效果较差,但在长预报时效是最早指示出强降水大致落区与量级的模式。展开更多
Based on the daily reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipi- tation of 753 Chinese stations from May to August during the period of 1960 to 2012, the statistical characteristics of the cold vortex i...Based on the daily reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipi- tation of 753 Chinese stations from May to August during the period of 1960 to 2012, the statistical characteristics of the cold vortex in northeastern China were analyzed. In addition, the strength index, which described the characteristics of the vortex consistently and fre- quently, and the geographical distribution were given by continuous anomalies of circulation. Based on this index, the activity routines of the cold vortex, characteristics of atmospheric circulation, and their effects on precipitation in northeastern China were analyzed. The results show that： the activities of the cold vortex exhibit remarkable features of annual and interde- cadal oscillation, and the vortex high frequency and its characteristics of atmospheric circula- tion are described more accurately by the strength index of the cold vortex, which shows a high correspondence with the vortex precipitation during early summer and midsummer in the northeast. In strong （weak） vortex years, the general circulation in the middle and high lati- tudes of Eurasia is to the advantage （disadvantage） of the formation, development and maintenance of the cold vortex, thus it is easy （difficult） to form the circulation which is bene- ficial to transmit vapor from south to north during the period of July to August. Blocking over the Ural Mountains prevails （does not prevail） in early summer, and blocking over the Sea of Okhotsk prevails （does not prevail） in midsummer. Areas where the subtropical high is too small （large） and moves toward the north too late （early） are better （worse） for the mainte- nance of the cold vortex in northeastern China.展开更多
Although much has been known about how humans psychologically perform data-driven scientific discovery,less has been known about its brain mechanism.The number series completion is a typical data-driven scientific dis...Although much has been known about how humans psychologically perform data-driven scientific discovery,less has been known about its brain mechanism.The number series completion is a typical data-driven scientific discovery task,and has been demonstrated to possess the priming effect,which is attributed to the regularity identification and its subsequent extrapolation.In order to reduce the heterogeneities and make the experimental task proper for a brain imaging study,the number magnitude and arithmetic operation involved in number series completion tasks are further restricted.Behavioral performance in Experiment 1 shows the reliable priming effect for targets as expected.Then,a factorial design (the priming effect:prime vs.target;the period length:simple vs.complex) of event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is used in Experiment 2 to examine the neural basis of data-driven scientific discovery.The fMRI results reveal a double dissociation of the left DLPFC (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) and the left APFC (anterior prefrontal cortex) between the simple (period length=1) and the complex (period length=2) number series completion task.The priming effect in the left DLPFC is more significant for the simple task than for the complex task,while the priming effect in the left APFC is more significant for the complex task than for the simple task.The reliable double dissociation may suggest the different roles of the left DLPFC and left APFC in data-driven scientific discovery.The left DLPFC (BA 46) may play a crucial role in rule identification,while the left APFC (BA 10) may be related to mental set maintenance needed during rule identification and extrapolation.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41375078, No.41405094, No.41175083, No.41275096 Science and technology development plan in Jilin Province of China, No.20150204023 SF
文摘Based on the daily reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipi- tation of 753 Chinese stations from May to August during the period of 1960 to 2012, the statistical characteristics of the cold vortex in northeastern China were analyzed. In addition, the strength index, which described the characteristics of the vortex consistently and fre- quently, and the geographical distribution were given by continuous anomalies of circulation. Based on this index, the activity routines of the cold vortex, characteristics of atmospheric circulation, and their effects on precipitation in northeastern China were analyzed. The results show that： the activities of the cold vortex exhibit remarkable features of annual and interde- cadal oscillation, and the vortex high frequency and its characteristics of atmospheric circula- tion are described more accurately by the strength index of the cold vortex, which shows a high correspondence with the vortex precipitation during early summer and midsummer in the northeast. In strong （weak） vortex years, the general circulation in the middle and high lati- tudes of Eurasia is to the advantage （disadvantage） of the formation, development and maintenance of the cold vortex, thus it is easy （difficult） to form the circulation which is bene- ficial to transmit vapor from south to north during the period of July to August. Blocking over the Ural Mountains prevails （does not prevail） in early summer, and blocking over the Sea of Okhotsk prevails （does not prevail） in midsummer. Areas where the subtropical high is too small （large） and moves toward the north too late （early） are better （worse） for the mainte- nance of the cold vortex in northeastern China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.60775039 and 60875075)supported by the Grant-in-aid for Scientific Research (Grant No.18300053) from the Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science+2 种基金Support Center for Advanced Telecommunications Technology Research,Foundationthe Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Multimedia and Intelligent Software Technology (Beijing University of Technology) Beijingthe Doctoral Research Fund of Beijing University of Technology (Grant No.00243)
文摘Although much has been known about how humans psychologically perform data-driven scientific discovery,less has been known about its brain mechanism.The number series completion is a typical data-driven scientific discovery task,and has been demonstrated to possess the priming effect,which is attributed to the regularity identification and its subsequent extrapolation.In order to reduce the heterogeneities and make the experimental task proper for a brain imaging study,the number magnitude and arithmetic operation involved in number series completion tasks are further restricted.Behavioral performance in Experiment 1 shows the reliable priming effect for targets as expected.Then,a factorial design (the priming effect:prime vs.target;the period length:simple vs.complex) of event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is used in Experiment 2 to examine the neural basis of data-driven scientific discovery.The fMRI results reveal a double dissociation of the left DLPFC (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) and the left APFC (anterior prefrontal cortex) between the simple (period length=1) and the complex (period length=2) number series completion task.The priming effect in the left DLPFC is more significant for the simple task than for the complex task,while the priming effect in the left APFC is more significant for the complex task than for the simple task.The reliable double dissociation may suggest the different roles of the left DLPFC and left APFC in data-driven scientific discovery.The left DLPFC (BA 46) may play a crucial role in rule identification,while the left APFC (BA 10) may be related to mental set maintenance needed during rule identification and extrapolation.
