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风险状态下混交林最优经营决策(英文)
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作者 鲁法典 peter lohmander 《林业科学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第11期83-89,共7页
不同树种对来自不同种类的真菌、昆虫和脊椎动物的伤害反应敏感度不同,而不同树种生产的林产品价格也随时间而不断变化。混交林为后继的适应性决策提供了宝贵的选择。本文建立一个基于麋鹿危害和价格风险的适应性优化模型,用于确定挪威... 不同树种对来自不同种类的真菌、昆虫和脊椎动物的伤害反应敏感度不同,而不同树种生产的林产品价格也随时间而不断变化。混交林为后继的适应性决策提供了宝贵的选择。本文建立一个基于麋鹿危害和价格风险的适应性优化模型,用于确定挪威云杉和欧洲赤松混交林的初始混交比例以便达到预测净现值的最大化。结果表明,即使在不考虑风险的情况下,由于混交效益,混交林也比纯欧洲赤松林优越。但考虑麋鹿危害时,混交林的优势将提高5%。如果加入瑞典森林法规定的最低林木株数要求,这种优势将提高24%。当考虑价格风险和选择性间伐时,混交林的优势进一步提高6%。 展开更多
关键词 森林经营决策 不确定性 风险 适应性优化
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Estimation of a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian mixed species forests 被引量:1
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作者 Zohreh Mohammadi Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei +1 位作者 peter lohmander Leif Olsson 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期1205-1214,共10页
The aim of this study was to estimate a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian forests.A survey was conducted in order to find a natural forest without any harvesting activities,a so call... The aim of this study was to estimate a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian forests.A survey was conducted in order to find a natural forest without any harvesting activities,a so called 'untouched forest' and an area was selected from the Iranian Caspian forest.Three sample plots in the same aspect and of the same forest type were selected.In each plot,total tree height,diameter at breast height,distance of neighbor trees and azimuth were measured.Thirty trees were selected and drilled with increment borer to determine the increment model.Regression analysis was used to estimate the growth model.Results show that,for individual trees,there is a significant nonlinear relationship between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area.The results also show that the basal area of competing trees has a positive influence on growth.That the increment is higher with more competing neighboring trees is possibly because plots with higher volume per hectare and more competition,most likely also have higher site index or better soil or better site productivity than the plot with lower volume per hectare. 展开更多
关键词 Basal area increment Diameter growth Regression analysis Caspian forests
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Quantitative and financial evaluation of non-timber forest products(case study:Zemkan basin forests,West of Iran) 被引量:3
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作者 Sohrab Moradi Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei +1 位作者 peter lohmander Mehrdad Khanmohammadi 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第2期371-379,共9页
Although Zagros forests in western Iran lack industrial timber value due to the severe climate and socioeconomics problems, non-timber products are of great value and importance due to their high economic potential an... Although Zagros forests in western Iran lack industrial timber value due to the severe climate and socioeconomics problems, non-timber products are of great value and importance due to their high economic potential and also their potential to improve the welfare of forestdwelling and forest-fringe villagers. This study was done in the forests of the Zemkan basin, an important part of central Zagros forests, Iran, to recognize the non-timber forest products(NTFPS), investigate their potential economic value and role in people's livelihood. Data, collected using forest cruising, participatory observations, interviews with indigenous and local persons and experts, identified wild pistachio resin, wild pistachio fruit, oak fruit and oak syrup(Shokeh manna) among the non-timber products in this basin with total potential harvestable NTFPs of 77.16,771.602, 13248.68, and 1324.868 tons per year,respectively. The economic rent from NTFPs is 33 US$/ha/year and its total expected values with consideration of real interest rate when the exploiter invests the capital in the bank(6.4 %) and when money is borrowed from the bank to execute the incorporated projects(8.4 %) are $516/ha and $393/ha, respectively. Furthermore, families' economic share from potential profit of NTFPs is annually$601 per household. In addition wild pistachio resin has the highest share of the total potential profit of NTFPs and its equal to 51 % of the total of potential profit of NTFPs.Therefore, it is suggested that decisions be made to increase the infrastructure and strengthen the local selling market to enhance the cash income from NTFPs. Forest participatory management practices are suggested to organize and improve traditional use of the forests. 展开更多
关键词 timber forests profit resin annually recognize fringe income household execute
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A basal area increment model for individual trees in mixed continuous cover forests in Iranian Caspian forests
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作者 Nishtman Hatami peter lohmander +1 位作者 Mohammad Hadi Moayeri Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第1期99-106,共8页
The aim of this study was to develop and test a new basal area growth model in mixed species continuous cover forests in northern Iran.Weanalyzed 421 core samples from 6 main species in the forest area to develop our ... The aim of this study was to develop and test a new basal area growth model in mixed species continuous cover forests in northern Iran.Weanalyzed 421 core samples from 6 main species in the forest area to develop our growth model.In each plot,we measured variables such as total tree height(m),diameter at breast height(DBH)(cm)and basal area of larger trees as cumulative basal areas of trees(GCUM)ofDBH[5 cm.The empirical data were analyzed using regression analysis.There was a statistically significant nonlinear function between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area of the individual trees and competition as explanatory variables.Reference area from the largest trees,was circular plot with area of 0.1 ha.GCUM was estimated for trees of DBH>5 cm.Furthermore,we investigated the dependencies of diameter growth of different species on stand density at different levels of competition,and diameter development of individual trees through time.The results indicate that competition caused by larger neighborhood trees has a negative effect on growth.In addition,the maximum diameter increment is affected by competition level.Therefore,the maximum diameter increment of species occurs when the trees are about 35–40 cm in dense-forest(40 to 0 m^2 per ha)and when the trees are about 60 to 70 cm in very dense forest(60 to 0 m^2 per ha)which is more likely to Caspian natural forests with high level density due to uneven-aged composition of stands. 展开更多
关键词 Individual-tree model Iranian Caspian forests Continuous cover forestry Mixed stands Uneven-aged management
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The effect of climate factors on the size of forest wildfires(case study:Prague-East district,Czech Republic)
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作者 Zohreh Mohammadi peter lohmander +3 位作者 Jan Kašpar Roman Berčák Jaroslav Holuša Robert Marušák 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第4期1291-1300,共10页
This paper presents a new approach to identifying the climate variables that influence the size of the area burned by forest wildfires.Multiple linear regression was used in combination with nonlinear variable transfo... This paper presents a new approach to identifying the climate variables that influence the size of the area burned by forest wildfires.Multiple linear regression was used in combination with nonlinear variable transformations to determine relevant nonlinear forest wildfire size functions.Data from the Prague-East District of the Czech Republic was used for model derivation.Individual burned forest area was hypothesized as a function of water vapor pressure,air temperature and wind speed.Wind speed was added to enhance predictions of the size of forest wildfires,and further improvements to the utility of prediction methods were added to the regression equation.The results show that if the air temperature increases,it may contain less water and the fuel will become drier.The size of the burned area then increases.If the relative humidity in the air increases and the wind speed decreases,the size of the burned area is reduced.Our model suggests that changes in the climate factors caused by ongoing climate change could cause significant changes in the size of wildfire in forests. 展开更多
关键词 Climatic variables Burned forest area Climate change Multiple linear regression
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